The termination of the solar wind

It has previously been suggested that the solar wind might terminate at distances of 5 AU to 20 AU from the Sun, and that the solar wind might be drastically slowed down by charge exchange and photoionization of interstellar hydrogen atoms which approach the Sun. However, recent satellite measurements of resonantly scattered Lyman alpha radiation, together with pulsar dispersion and Faraday rotation measures, imply very small values for the interstellar hydrogen density (0.05 cm⁻³) and magnetic field strength (3 μG). As a result, the solar wind is not expected to be slowed down by more than about 30% inside the termination distance, which is expected to be about 100 AU.     

Invariant expressions for elastic radiation from a fault with prescribed slip

Summary New formulae are obtained for the displacement potentials and displacements due to a point source with moment tensor, and for a fault with prescribed slip. These formulae, unlike previous formulae, are invariant, i.e. they are valid in any coordinate system, not just Cartesian coordinates or orthogonal curvilinear coordinates.
Apart from their invariance, these formulae have other advantages: they are exceedingly simple; the expressions for P -motion are nearly the same as those for S -motion; and the separation of far field motion from final static displacement is automatic.     

A least-squares method for determining the best-fit point maximum, great circle, and small circle to nondirectional orientation data

Given a set of nondirectional orientation data (fold axes, lineations, dip and dip direction of bedding, universal stage readings of crystallographic axes, etc.),the best-fit line (point maximum),plane (great circle),or cone (small circle)can be determined by minimizing the sum of the squares of the angular residuals using a simplex convergence technique. Stereoplots of the angular deviation over the complete lower hemisphere for these distributions may also be generated when consideration of the constraint on the best-fit position is important; for example in comparing different data sets of the same structural element. The routines are available as a FORTRAN coded computer program.     

Entanglement of New Zealand fur seals in man-made debris at Kaikoura, New Zealand

New Zealand fur seals in the Kaikoura region breed near a town with expanding tourist and fishing industries and commonly come ashore entangled in nets and plastic debris. However, the rate at which entanglement occurs was previously unknown. A decade of Department of Conservation seal callout data was analysed to determine the level of entanglement in the region and the most common debris type. Monitoring of adult female fur seals released from entanglement provided information on the potential for serious wounds to heal and survivorship of released individuals. Entanglement rates of pinnipeds in Kaikoura are some of the highest reported world-wide (average range: 0.6-2.8%) with green trawl net (42%), and plastic strapping tape (31%) together contributing the most to debris types. Nearly half of the reported entangled seals are successfully released (43%) and post-release monitoring shows that with appropriate intervention the chance of an individual surviving even with a significant entanglement wound is high. Our study demonstrates that while entanglement in the region is high, a successful intervention protocol may help reduce the potential for entanglement-related mortality in the region.     

Trends in flood seasonality of the River Ouse (Northern England) from archive and instrumental sources since AD 1600

The last decade has witnessed an increase in the application of historical records (historical and documentary) in developing a more complete understanding of high-magnitude flood frequency; but little consideration has been given to the additional information that documentary accounts contain, particularly relating to flood seasonality. This paper examines the methods and approaches available in long-term flood seasonality analysis and applies them to the River Ouse (Yorkshire) in Northern England since AD 1600. A detailed historical flood record is available for the City of York consisting of annual maxima flood levels since AD 1877, with documentary accounts prior to this. A detailed analysis of long-term flood seasonality requires confidence in the accuracy and completeness of flood records; as a result the augmented flood series are analysed using three strategies: firstly, considering all recorded floods since AD 1600; secondly, through detailed analysis of the more complete record since AD 1800; and finally, applying a threshold to focus on high-magnitude flood events since AD 1800. The results identify later winter flooding, particularly in the second half of the twentieth century, with a notable reduction in summer flood events at York during the twentieth century compared to previous centuries. Flood generating mechanisms vary little between the periods considered, with a general pattern of stability in the ratio of floods incorporating a snowmelt component.     

European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.     

Molecular modelling of rare earth element complexation in subduction zone fluids

Complexation of (trace) elements in fluids plays a critical role in determining element mobility in subduction zones, but to date, the atomic-scale processes controlling elemental solubilities are poorly understood. As a first step towards computer simulation of element complexation in subduction zone fluids, a thermodynamic cycle was developed to investigate the hydration environment and energetics of lanthanide complexes using density functional theory. The first solvation shell is explicitly defined and the remaining part of the aqueous fluid is modelled using a polarisable continuum model, which allows extrapolation to a broad pressure and temperature range.We illustrate our method by comparing solvation of lanthanide series elements in H₂O in the presence of fluoride or chloride for conditions relevant to subduction zones. The energetics of lanthanide- and lanthanide-fluoride/chloride hydration complexes were determined computationally. Calculated hydration free energies for trivalent lanthanides with explicit eight- and nine-fold coordinated first hydration shells show good agreement with literature data at room pressure and temperature. The hydration free energy is more negative for smaller complexes (heavy lanthanides) relative to larger complexes (light lanthanides), with the difference between La and Lu in water amounting to 361 kJ mol⁻¹. The hydration free energy of all lanthanide ions becomes less negative with increasing pressure (p) and temperature (T) up to 2.5 GPa and 1000 K (typical conditions in the upper part of subducting slabs). The free energy difference between light- and heavy-lanthanides remains essentially unchanged at elevated (p, T) conditions. There are minor geometrical differences in local hydration environment between light lanthanide-chloride (La-Nd) and heavy lanthanide-chloride (Pm-Lu) hydrated complexes, without a distinguishable energy difference. Complexation with fluoride is energetically more favourable than with chloride by 206 ± 4 kJ mol⁻¹ across the entire lanthanide series. The association of fluoride-water and chloride-water fragments with lanthanide-water complexes is energetically more favourable for aqueous lanthanide complexes surrounded by fewer first hydration shell water molecules.The methods developed in this study, in conjunction with simulation of the energetics of trace element incorporation into minerals, open the possibility to use molecular modelling to constrain elemental behaviour in subduction zones.     

Soil erosion and sediment transport in Tanzania: Part II – sedimentological evidence of phased land degradation

Soil resources in parts of Tanzania are rapidly being depleted by increased rates of soil erosion and downstream sediment transport, threatening ecosystem health, water and livelihood security in the region. However, incomplete understanding to what effect the dynamics of soil erosion and sediment transport are responding to land-use changes and climatic variability are hindering the actions needed to future-proof Tanzanian land-use practices. Complementary environmental diagnostic tools were applied to reconstruct the rates and sources of sedimentation over time in three Tanzanian river systems that have experienced changing land use and climatic conditions. Detailed historical analysis of sediment deposits revealed drastic changes in sediment yield and source contributions. Quantitative sedimentation reconstruction using radionuclide dating showed a 20-fold increase in sediment yield over the past 120 years. The observed dramatic increase in sediment yield is most likely driven by increasing land-use pressures. Deforestation, cropland expansion and increasing grazing pressures resulted into accelerating rates of sheet erosion. A regime shift after years of progressive soil degradation and convergence of surface flows resulted into a highly incised landscape, where high amounts of eroded soil from throughout the catchment are rapidly transported downstream by strongly connected ephemeral drainage networks. By integrating complementary spatial and temporal evidence bases, this study demonstrated links between land-use change, increased soil erosion and downstream sedimentation. Such evidence can guide stakeholders and policy makers in the design of targeted management interventions to safeguard future soil health and water quality.