A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.     

Identification of rural land management signals in runoff response

Rural land management signals in catchment‐scale runoff have proven difficult to identify in general. The Pontbren experimental catchment in upland Wales, UK, provides a new data set with which to address this challenge. This data set includes more than 4 years of data from six tipping bucket rainfall gauges and eight stream flow gauges representing different land management regimes at different scales. Data‐based mechanistic rainfall–runoff models were fitted to this data set using the CAPTAIN toolbox. The spatial and temporal variabilities of model parameters were identified and interpreted where possible. The analysis highlighted a dependency between the modelled residence time and the presence of agriculturally improved grassland, which produced a flashier response than grassland in a more natural condition. Another factor found to strongly affect the spatial variability of runoff response was the presence of lakes, while catchment area had a less pronounced effect, and the influence of trees, steepness and soil type could not be identified. Some time variability of response was observed but this was not consistent across the catchment and could not easily be interpreted. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social capital,individual responses to heat waves and climate change adaptation: An empirical study of two UK cities

It has been claimed that high social capital contributes to both positive public health outcomes and to climate change adaptation. Strong social networks have been said to support individuals and collective initiatives of adaptation and enhance resilience. As a result, there is an expectation that social capital could reduce vulnerability to risks from the impacts of climate change in the health sector. This paper examines evidence on the role social networks play in individuals’ responses to heat wave risk in a case study in the UK. Based on interviews with independently living elderly people and their primary social contacts in London and Norwich, we suggest that strong bonding networks could potentially exacerbate rather than reduce the vulnerability of elderly people to the effects of heat waves. Most respondents interviewed did not feel that heat waves posed a significant risk to them personally, and most said that they would be able to cope with hot weather. Bonding networks could perpetuate rather than challenge these narratives and therefore contribute to vulnerability rather than ameliorating it. These results suggest a complex rather than uniformly positive relationship between social capital, health and adaptation to climate change.     

Process length variation of the cyst of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum in the North Pacific and Baltic‐Skagerrak region: calibration as an annual density proxy and first evidence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation

Process length variation of cysts of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum (Claparède et Lachmann) Bütschli in surface sediments from the North Pacific was investigated. The average process length showed a significant inverse relation to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = ?0.8674 × average process length + 1029.3 (R² = 0.84), with a standard error of 0.78 kg m^?3. A sediment trap study from Effingham Inlet in British Columbia revealed the same relationship between average process length and local seawater density variations. In the Baltic–Skagerrak region, the average process length variation was related significantly to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = 3.5457 × average process length ? 993.28 (R² = 0.86), with a standard error of 3.09 kg m^?3. These calibrations cannot be reconciled, which accentuates the regional character of the calibrations. This can be related to variations in molecular data (small subunit, long subunit and internal transcribed spacer sequences), which show the presence of several genotypes and the occurrence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation within this species. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short-term environmental variability in cold-water coral habitat at Viosca Knoll,Gulf of Mexico

The Lophelia pertusa community at Viosca Knoll (VK826) is the most extensive found to date in the Gulf of Mexico. As part of a multi-disciplinary study, the physical setting of this area was described using benthic landers, CTD transects and remotely operated vehicle observations. The site was broadly characterised into three main habitats: (1) dense coral cover that resembles biogenic reef complexes, (2) areas of sediment, and (3) authigenic carbonate blocks with sparse coral and chemosynthetic communities. The coral communities were dominated by L. pertusa but also contained numerous solitary coral species. Over areas that contained L. pertusa, the environmental conditions recorded were similar to those associated with communities in the north-eastern Atlantic, with temperature (8.5–10.6 °C) and salinity (～35) falling within the known species niche for L. pertusa. However, dissolved oxygen concentrations (2.7–2.8 ml l^?1) and density (σ_Θ, 27.1–27.2 kg m^?3) were lower and mass fluxes from sediment trap data appeared much higher (4002–4192 mg m^?2 d^?1). Yet, this species still appears to thrive in this region, suggesting that L. pertusa may not be as limited by lower dissolved oxygen concentrations as previously thought. The VK826 site experienced sustained eastward water flow of 10–30 cm s^?1 over the 5-day measurement period but was also subjected to significant short-term variability in current velocity and direction. In addition, two processes were observed that caused variability in salinity and temperature; the first was consistent with internal waves that caused temperature variations of 0.8 °C over 5–11 h periods. The second was high-frequency variability (20–30 min periods) in temperature recorded only at the ALBEX site. A further pattern observed over the coral habitat was the presence of a 24 h diel vertical migration of zooplankton that may form part of a food chain that eventually reaches the corals. The majority of detailed studies concerning local environmental conditions in L. pertusa habitats have been conducted within the north-eastern Atlantic, limiting most knowledge of the niche of this species to a single part of an ocean basin. Data presented here show that the corals at VK826 are subjected to similar conditions in temperature, salinity, and flow velocity as their counterparts in the north-east Atlantic, although values for dissolved oxygen and density (sigma-theta: σ_Θ) are different. Our data also highlight novel observations of short-term environmental variability in cold-water coral habitat.     

Geochemistry and mineralogy of laterites in the Sula Mountains greenstone belt, Lake Sonfon gold district, Sierra Leone

Geochemical and mineralogical investigations have been carried out on laterite profiles developed in the Lake Sonfon Au district of northern Sierra Leone. The area is underlain by Archean metavolcanics and constitutes part of the Sula Mountains greenstone belt, which is mineralized in Au. Extensive lateritization has affected the rocks of this region, resulting in a profile which from bottom to top consists typically of a decomposed bedrock zone, a pisolitic laterite layer and a duricrust layer. Both the pisolitic and duricrust layers of the laterite are sometimes punctuated by lenses of ironstones containing high amounts of Cu, Zn, Ni, Co and Ce. Gold occurs as small grains within the heavy mineral fraction recovered from the decomposed rock zones and pisolitic layers of the profiles and also in gravels of streams draining the area. The mineralogy of the duricrust and pisolitic layers is dominated by goethite, gibbsite and quartz, with minor amounts (<5% by volume) of ilmenite, magnetite, haematite, rutile and kaolinite. The kaolinite content increases towards the decomposed rock zone, where talc, vermiculite and other layer lattice silicates become abundant. The heavy-mineral fraction of stream sediments is composed essentially of ilmenite, magnetite, haematite, and traces of rutile, zircon, tourmaline and Au. The Au grains are often characterized by a 10–200-μm-wide rim having a much lower content of Ag (0.3 wt.% or lower) than the grain interior (about 5 wt.% on average). Dissolution effects are also observed on the grain surfaces. It is considered that Au derived from the amphibolite parent rock is dissolved, transported, and redeposited during laterization.The duricrust cover of the laterite profiles is characterized by high contents of Fe₂O₃ (ca. 60 wt.%) and Al₂O₃ (ca. 32wt.%) and low content of SiO₂ (ca. 9 wt.%). In comparison, the pisolitic layer is higher in SiO₂ (ca. 18 wt.%) as well as a slightly higher in Al₂O₃ (ca. 34 wt.%). Lateritic weathering has resulted in the removal of CaO, Na₂O, MgO and SiO₂, with relative enrichment of Fe₂O₃ and Al₂O₃. The geochemical distribution of the trace elements in the laterite profiles can be related to the occurrence of the auriferous mineralization. The significance of these observations is discussed in relation to the origin of the lateritic Au and the role of the associated trace elements as indicators of the mineralization.     

Dissolved oxygen variations in alpine glacial meltwaters

Recent models of chemical weathering in alpine glacial meltwaters suggest that sulphide oxidation is a major source of solute in the distributed component of the subglacial hydrological system. This reaction requires O₂, and may lower dissolved oxygen levels to below saturation with respect to the atmosphere. This should result in an inverse association between SO₇^2- and dissolved oxygen saturation. However, measurements of O₂ saturation in bulk meltwaters draining the Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland, show that there is a positive association between SO₄^2- and O₂ saturation. The O₂ content of glacial meltwaters depends on the initial content of snow and icemelt, which may be controlled by the rate of melting, and the kinetic balance between O₂ losses (e.g. sulphide oxidation, microbial respiration) and gains (e.g. diffusion of O₂ into solution).     

Estimation of sector roughness lengths and the effect on prediction of the vertical wind speed profile

An estimate of roughness length is required by some atmospheric models and is also used in the logarithmic profile to determine the increase of wind speed with height under neutral conditions. The choice of technique for determining roughness lengths is generally constrained by the available input data. Here, we compare sets of roughness lengths derived by different methods for the same site and evaluate their impact on the prediction of the vertical wind speed profile.Wind speed and direction data have been collected at four heights over a three-year period at the North Norfolk Wind Monitoring Site. Wind speed profiles were used to generate sector roughness lengths based on the logarithmic profile formula. This is the only direct way of determining roughness lengths. The simplest and cheapest method is to use maps with published tables giving roughness length estimates for different terrain types. Alternatively Wieringa (1976, 1986) and Beljaars (1987) give formulae for determining roughness lengths from wind speed gusts or standard deviations.The four sets of estimated roughness lengths vary considerably. They were used to estimate 34 m wind speeds from 12.7 m observations. The profile-derived roughnesses are used simply as a check on the prediction of the wind speed profiles. The terrain-derived roughness lengths give reasonable results. Gust-derived and standard deviation roughnesses both predict wind speeds which are lower than the observed ones. The error is greater in the case of standard deviation roughnesses. If stability corrections are applied in the prediction of the vertical wind speed profile, the results are considerably improved.