Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

The integrated optical spectrum of the Crab nebula and evidence for its fading synchrotron continuum

A flux-calibrated optical spectrum integrated over the entire Crab nebula was obtained by making drift scans with a long-slit spectrograph. Compared to observations obtained over the past 40 years, these new data confirm an earlier controversial result that the [O iii ]  λλ4959, 5007  equivalent width is increasing with time, although the rate of ∼0.9 per cent yr⁻¹ is somewhat slower than that measured previously. Additionally, the Hβ equivalent width is increasing at a comparable rate, but the measured fluxes of both Hβ and [O  iii ] have changed less than their respective equivalent widths. The different rates of change in the measured fluxes and equivalent widths of these lines suggest that the optical synchrotron continuum from the Crab nebula is indeed fading rapidly. The apparent decline is consistent with a rate around  −0.5 (±0.2)  per cent yr⁻¹ at wavelengths near 5000  Å inferred independently from measurements of the optical continuum flux during the same time period.     

Fresnel modeling of hematite crystal surfaces and application to martian hematite spherules

The gray crystalline hematite at Meridiani Planum first discovered by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS-TES) instrument occurs as spherules that have been interpreted as concretions. Analysis of the TES and mini-TES spectra shows that no 390 cm⁻¹ feature is present in the characteristic martian hematite spectrum. Here, we incorporate the mid-IR optical constants of hematite into a simple Fresnel reflectance model to understand the effect of emission angle and crystal morphology on the presence or absence of the 390 cm⁻¹ feature in an IR hematite spectrum. Based on the results we offer two models for the internal structure of the martian hematite spherules.     

The role of magnetohydrodynamics in heliospheric space plasma physics research

Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) is a fairly recent extension of the field of fluid mechanics. While much remains to be done, it has successfully been applied to the contemporary field of heliospheric space plasma research to evaluate the macroscopic picture of some vital topics via the use of conducting fluid equations and numerical modeling and simulations. Some representative examples from solar and interplanetary physics are described to demonstrate that the continuum approach to global problems (while keeping in mind the assumptions and limitations therein) can be very successful in providing insight and large scale interpretations of otherwise intractable problems in space physics.Paper dedicated to Professor Hannes Alfvén on the occasion of his 80th birthday, 30 May 1988.     

Development of a real-time algorithm for detection of solar wind discontinuities

A study is presented of an algorithm, based on the statistical analysis of interplanetary magnetic field data, for the real-time detection of discontinuities in the solar wind. The analysis is based on the application of a sliding or searching algorithm together with a minimum variance treatment. A demonstration is given for a Pioneer data set from 29 August, 1966. This particular data set was chosen because it has been extensively studied (in terms of the fast forward MHD shock wave) by previous groups who utilized the three-dimensional Rankine-Hugoniot shock equations after identifying the shock on a subjective basis. Our procedure differs in that it is perfectly objective because of its searching technique. For this particular data set we identify the original shock with excellent agreement with the earlier studies of its normal vector, as well as an additional shock and tangential discontinuity, neither of which had been identified previously.     

The Mordor Alkaline Igneous Complex,Central Australia: PGE-enriched disseminated sulfide layers in cumulates from a lamprophyric magma

The Mordor Alkaline Igneous Complex (MAIC) is a composite intrusion comprising a body of syenite and a funnel-shaped layered mafic–ultramafic intrusion of lamprophyric parentage, the Mordor Mafic–Ultramafic Intrusion or MMUI. The MMUI is highly unusual among intrusions of lamprophyric or potassic parentage in containing primary magmatic platinum-group element (PGE)-enriched sulfides. The MMUI sequence consists largely of phlogopite-rich pyroxenitic cumulates, with an inward dipping conformable layer of olivine-bearing cumulates divisible into a number of cyclic units. Stratiform-disseminated sulfide accumulations are of two types: disseminated layers at the base of cyclic units, with relatively high PGE tenors; and patchy PGE-poor disseminations within magnetite-bearing upper parts of cyclic units. Sulfide-enriched layers at cycle bases contain anomalous platinum group element contents with grades up to 1.5 g/t Pt+Pd+Au over 1-m intervals, returning to background values of low parts per billion (ppb) on a meter scale. They correspond to reversals in normal fractionation trends and are interpreted as the result of new magma influxes into a continuously replenished magma chamber. Basal layers have decoupled Cu and PGE peaks reflecting increasing PGE tenors up-section, due to increasing R factors during the replenishment episode, or progressive mixing of between resident PGE-poor magma and more PGE-enriched replenishing magma. The presence of PGE enriched sulfides in cumulates from a lamprophyric magma implies that low-degree partial melts do not necessarily leave sulfides and PGEs in the mantle restite during partial melting. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Quantitative textural analysis of packings of elongate crystals

The spatial distribution of grains in a solidifying igneous rock controls the physical properties of the crystal mush, and in turn is controlled by the rate of crystal growth and accumulation. A predominant non-spherical habit for igneous minerals brings into question the use of spherical particles in reference packings used for quantification of spatial distribution. Furthermore, variations of crystal clustering/ordering with length scale require spatial statistics which take into account the distribution of particles beyond nearest neighbours. Using random close packings of spherocylinders, we demonstrate the importance of aspect ratio for the aggregation index (usually known as R) and show that packings of spherical particles have more structure than packings of rods. The spatial distribution functions demonstrate that the plagioclase grains in the colonnade from the Holyoke basalt are clustered on a length scale of 0.5 mm. Understanding the controls on grain spatial distribution in igneous rocks will depend on the application of these techniques to well-understood environments.