Individual Movement - Sequence Analysis Method (IM-SAM): characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of animal habitat use across landscapes

ABSTRACT

We present methodological advances to a recently developed framework to study sequential habitat use by animals using a visually-explicit and tree-based Sequence Analysis Method (SAM), derived from molecular biology and more recently used in time geography. Habitat use sequences are expressed as annotations obtained by intersecting GPS movement trajectories with environmental layers. Here, we develop IM-SAM, where we use the individual reference area of use as the reference spatial context. To assess IM-SAM’s applicability, we investigated the sequential use of open and closed habitats across multiple European roe deer populations ranging in landscapes with contrasting structure. Starting from simulated sequences based on a mechanistic movement model, we found that different sequential patterns of habitat use were distinguished as separate, robust clusters, with less variable cluster size when habitats were present in equal proportions within the individual reference area of use. Application on real roe deer sequences showed that our approach effectively captured variation in spatio-temporal patterns of sequential habitat use, and provided evidence for important behavioral processes, such as day-night habitat alternation. By characterizing sequential habitat use patterns of animals, we may better evaluate the temporal trade-offs in animal habitat use and how they are affected by changes in landscapes.     

Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State

This study evaluates the sensitivity of Washington State’s freshwater habitat of Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) to climate change. Our analysis focuses on summertime stream temperatures, seasonal low flows, and changes in peak and base flows because these physical factors are likely to be key pressure points for many of Washington’s salmon populations. Weekly summertime water temperatures and extreme daily high and low streamflows are evaluated under multimodel composites for A1B and B1 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Simulations predict rising water temperatures will thermally stress salmon throughout Washington’s watersheds, becoming increasingly severe later in the twenty-first century. Streamflow simulations predict that basins strongly influenced by transient runoff (a mix of direct runoff from cool-season rainfall and springtime snowmelt) are most sensitive to climate change. By the 2080s, hydrologic simulations predict a complete loss of Washington’s snowmelt dominant basins, and only about ten transient basins remaining in the north Cascades. Historically transient runoff watersheds will shift towards rainfall dominant behavior, undergoing more severe summer low flow periods and more frequent days with intense winter flooding. While cool-season stream temperature changes and impacts on salmon are not assessed in this study, it is possible that climate-induced warming in winter and spring will benefit parts of the freshwater life-cycle of some salmon populations enough to increase their reproductive success (or overall fitness). However, the combined effects of warming summertime stream temperatures and altered streamflows will likely reduce the reproductive success for many Washington salmon populations, with impacts varying for different life history-types and watershed-types. Diminishing streamflows and higher stream temperatures in summer will be stressful for stream-type salmon populations that have freshwater rearing periods in summer. Increased winter flooding in transient runoff watersheds will likely reduce the egg-to-fry survival rates for ocean-type and stream-type salmon.     

Building the terrestrial planets: Constrained accretion in the inner Solar System

To date, no accretion model has succeeded in reproducing all observed constraints in the inner Solar System. These constraints include: (1) the orbits, in particular the small eccentricities, and (2) the masses of the terrestrial planets - Mars’ relatively small mass in particular has not been adequately reproduced in previous simulations; (3) the formation timescales of Earth and Mars, as interpreted from Hf/W isotopes; (4) the bulk structure of the asteroid belt, in particular the lack of an imprint of planetary embryo-sized objects; and (5) Earth’s relatively large water content, assuming that it was delivered in the form of water-rich primitive asteroidal material. Here we present results of 40 high-resolution (N = 1000-2000) dynamical simulations of late-stage planetary accretion with the goal of reproducing these constraints, although neglecting the planet Mercury. We assume that Jupiter and Saturn are fully-formed at the start of each simulation, and test orbital configurations that are both consistent with and contrary to the “Nice model”. We find that a configuration with Jupiter and Saturn on circular orbits forms low-eccentricity terrestrial planets and a water-rich Earth on the correct timescale, but Mars’ mass is too large by a factor of 5-10 and embryos are often stranded in the asteroid belt. A configuration with Jupiter and Saturn in their current locations but with slightly higher initial eccentricities (e = 0.07-0.1) produces a small Mars, an embryo-free asteroid belt, and a reasonable Earth analog but rarely allows water delivery to Earth. None of the configurations we tested reproduced all the observed constraints. Our simulations leave us with a problem: we can reasonably satisfy the observed constraints (except for Earth’s water) with a configuration of Jupiter and Saturn that is at best marginally consistent with models of the outer Solar System, as it does not allow for any outer planet migration after a few Myr. Alternately, giant planet configurations which are consistent with the Nice model fail to reproduce Mars’ small size.     

East African food security as influenced by future climate change and land use change at local to regional scales

Climate change impacts food production systems, particularly in locations with large, vulnerable populations. Elevated greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as land cover/land use change (LCLUC), can influence regional climate dynamics. Biophysical factors such as topography, soil type, and seasonal rainfall can strongly affect crop yields. We used a regional climate model derived from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to compare the effects of projected future GHG and future LCLUC on spatial variability of crop yields in East Africa. Crop yields were estimated with a process-based simulation model. The results suggest that: (1) GHG-influenced and LCLUC-influenced yield changes are highly heterogeneous across this region; (2) LCLUC effects are significant drivers of yield change; and (3) high spatial variability in yield is indicated for several key agricultural sub-regions of East Africa. Food production risk when considered at the household scale is largely dependent on the occurrence of extremes, so mean yield in some cases may be an incomplete predictor of risk. The broad range of projected crop yields reflects enormous variability in key parameters that underlie regional food security; hence, donor institutions’ strategies and investments might benefit from considering the spatial distribution around mean impacts for a given region. Ultimately, global assessments of food security risk would benefit from including regional and local assessments of climate impacts on food production. This may be less of a consideration in other regions. This study supports the concept that LCLUC is a first-order factor in assessing food production risk.     

Quality of geological CO2 storage to avoid jeopardizing climate targets

We explore allowable leakage for carbon capture and geological storage to be consistent with maximum global warming targets of 2.5 and 3 °C by 2100. Given plausible fossil fuel use and carbon capture and storage scenarios, and based on modeling of time-dependent leakage of CO₂, we employ a climate model to calculate the long-term temperature response of CO₂ emissions. We assume that half of the stored CO₂ is permanently trapped by fast mechanisms. If 40?% of global CO₂ emissions are stored in the second half of this century, the temperature effect of escaped CO₂ is too small to compromise a 2.5 °C target. If 80?% of CO₂ is captured, escaped CO₂ must peak 300?years or later for consistency with this climate target. Due to much more CO₂ stored for the 3 than the 2.5 °C target, quality of storage becomes more important. Thus for the 3 °C target escaped CO₂ must peak 400?years or later in the 40?% scenario, and 3000?years or later in the 80?% scenario. Consequently CO₂ escaped from geological storage can compromise the less stringent 3 °C target in the long-run if most of global CO₂ emissions have been stored. If less CO₂ is stored only a very high escape scenario can compromise the more stringent 2.5 °C target. For the two remaining combinations of storage scenarios and climate targets, leakage must be high to compromise these climate targets.     

Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations

The current literature provides compelling evidence suggesting that an eddy-resolving (as opposed to eddy-permitting or eddy-parameterized) ocean component model will significantly impact the simulation of the large-scale climate, although this has not been fully tested to date in multi-decadal global coupled climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how resolved ocean fronts and eddies impact the simulation of large-scale climate. The model used for this study is the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3.5 (CCSM3.5)—the forerunner to CCSM4. Two experiments are reported here. The control experiment is a 155-year present-day climate simulation using a 0.5° atmosphere component (zonal resolution 0.625 meridional resolution 0.5°; land surface component at the same resolution) coupled to ocean and sea-ice components with zonal resolution of 1.2° and meridional resolution varying from 0.27° at the equator to 0.54° in the mid-latitudes. The second simulation uses the same atmospheric and land-surface models coupled to eddy-resolving 0.1° ocean and sea-ice component models. The simulations are compared in terms of how the representation of smaller scale features in the time mean ocean circulation and ocean eddies impact the mean and variable climate. In terms of the global mean surface temperature, the enhanced ocean resolution leads to a ubiquitous surface warming with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 0.2?°C relative to the control. The warming is largest in the Arctic and regions of strong ocean fronts and ocean eddy activity (i.e., Southern Ocean, western boundary currents). The Arctic warming is associated with significant losses of sea-ice in the high-resolution simulation. The sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic, in particular, are better resolved in the high-resolution model leading to significantly sharper temperature gradients and associated large-scale shifts in the rainfall. In the extra-tropics, the interannual temperature variability is increased with the resolved eddies, and a notable increases in the amplitude of the El Ni?o and the Southern Oscillation is also detected. Changes in global temperature anomaly teleconnections and local air-sea feedbacks are also documented and show large changes in ocean–atmosphere coupling. In particular, local air-sea feedbacks are significantly modified by the increased ocean resolution. In the high-resolution simulation in the extra-tropics there is compelling evidence of stronger forcing of the atmosphere by SST variability arising from ocean dynamics. This coupling is very weak or absent in the low-resolution model.     

Effect of changes in water level on sediment pore water redox geochemistry at a reservoir shoreline

Pore water samplers with high vertical resolution were used to evaluate the response of sediment redox geochemistry during transient hydrologic conditions at Lake Powell, a large reservoir in Utah and Arizona, USA. Samplers were deployed at two different yet proximal shoreline locations, White and Farley Canyons, before and after exposure of sediment to air and subsequent resubmersion, which resulted from fluctuations in the water level of the reservoir. Before exposure to air, an observed increase in dissolved Mn concentrations and, at Farley Canyon, an observed decrease in dissolved U concentrations across and immediately below the sediment–water interface indicated reducing conditions in the sub-surface. After exposure and resubmersion of the sediment, pore water profiles at each site differed distinctly from those observed before the fluctuation in water level. At White Canyon, an increase in U concentrations and a decrease in Mn concentrations in pore water after exposure and subsequent resubmersion are suggestive of oxidative processes occurring during the period of sediment exposure. Data from Farley Canyon suggest that the same processes may be occurring, but to a lesser extent. Depth profiles of As and Pb were also examined, but were relatively featureless compared to those of Mn and U. At both sites, sediment evaluated for pore water chemistry in the second sampling was only fully resubmerged for 2–5 days prior to the second sampling event, yet reducing conditions were clearly evident in the Mn pore water profiles. This suggests that the dynamics of the biogeochemical processes occurring in surface sediment at Lake Powell are responsive on the timescale defined by the fluctuating water levels in the reservoir.     

An anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) investigation of the till fabric of drumlins: support for an accretionary origin

This paper describes the results of a spatially dense anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) till fabric study of a single drumlin in the Weedsport Drumlin Field, New York State, USA. AMS till fabrics provide a robust, quantitative and unbiased approach to assess subglacial till kinematics and infer ice‐flow dynamics. The drumlin selected for this detailed investigation was systematically sampled at 18 locations to evaluate the patterns of ice flow and associated till kinematics within a drumlin and to test erosional vs. depositional models for its formation. AMS till fabric analysis yielded strong fabrics that increase in strength towards the drumlin crest, indicating that bed deformation occurred during till deposition and that deformation within the drumlin was greater than that in the interdrumlin low. Fabric orientations reveal drumlin convergent, divergent and parallel ice‐flow paths that illustrate a complex interaction between ice flow and the drumlin form; fabric strength and shape reveal systematic differences in bed deformation between the interdrumlin and drumlin regions. These observations are inconsistent with purely erosional models of drumlin genesis; instead, these observations are more consistent with syndepositional streamlining of till transported, probably locally as a deforming bed, from the interdrumlin low towards the drumlin locality.