Vegetation changes in the Neotropical Gran Sabana (Venezuela) around the Younger Dryas chron

The occurrence of the Younger Dryas cold reversal in northern South America midlands and lowlands remains controversial. We present a palaeoecological analysis of a Late Glacial lacustrine section from a midland lake (Lake Chonita, 4.6501 °N, 61.0157 °W, 884 m elevation) located in the Venezuelan Gran Sabana, based on physical and biological proxies. The sediments were mostly barren from ～15.3 to 12.7 k cal a BP, probably due to poor preservation. A ligneous community with no clear modern analogues was dominant from 12.7 to 11.7 k cal a BP (Younger Dryas chronozone). At present, similar shrublands are situated around 200 m elevation above the lake, suggesting a cooling‐driven downward shift in vegetation during that period. The interval from 11.7 to 10.6 k cal a BP is marked by a dramatic replacement of the shrubland by savannas and a conspicuous increase in fire incidence. The intensification of local and regional fires at this interval could have played a role in the vegetation shift. A change to wetter, and probably warmer, conditions is deduced after 11.7 k cal a BP, coinciding with the early Holocene warming. These results support the hypothesis of a mixed origin (climate and fire) of the Gran Sabana savannas, and highlight the climatic instability of the Neotropics during the Late Glacial. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An invariant theory of the linearized shallow water equations with rotation and its application to a sphere and a plane

The system of linearized shallow water equations is formulated in this paper on any rotating and smooth surface M in terms of differential geometry. The system decouples into two separate equations: a scalar one for the height deviation and a vector one for the velocity field. For low and high frequencies these equations yield asymptotic equations whose solutions are the generalizations of the Poincare and Rossby waves to smooth surface. The application of these equations to the β-plane yields both new and previously known equations for the height deviation and for the velocity components. The application of the equations to the rotating spherical Earth shows that the meridional amplitudes of Poincare and Rossby waves are both described by the prolate angular spheroidal wave functions. The asymptotic and the power series expansions of the eigenvalues of these functions yield new approximations for the dispersion relations of these waves on a sphere. The new dispersion relations are very accurate in the physically relevant range of the single nondimensional model parameter – the square of the nondimensional gravity waves’ phase speed. The invariant formulation can also be applied to other surfaces that are of geophysical interest such as an oblate ellipsoid of revolution.     

Anisotropic path modeling to assess pedestrian-evacuation potential from Cascadia-related tsunamis in the US Pacific Northwest

Recent disasters highlight the threat that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. When developing tsunami-education efforts and vertical-evacuation strategies, emergency managers need to understand how much time it could take for a coastal population to reach higher ground before tsunami waves arrive. To improve efforts to model pedestrian evacuations from tsunamis, we examine the sensitivity of least-cost-distance models to variations in modeling approaches, data resolutions, and travel-rate assumptions. We base our observations on the assumption that an anisotropic approach that uses path-distance algorithms and accounts for variations in land cover and directionality in slope is the most realistic of an actual evacuation landscape. We focus our efforts on the Long Beach Peninsula in Washington (USA), where a substantial residential and tourist population is threatened by near-field tsunamis related to a potential Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Results indicate thousands of people are located in areas where evacuations to higher ground will be difficult before arrival of the first tsunami wave. Deviations from anisotropic modeling assumptions substantially influence the amount of time likely needed to reach higher ground. Across the entire study, changes in resolution of elevation data has a greater impact on calculated travel times than changes in land-cover resolution. In particular areas, land-cover resolution had a substantial impact when travel-inhibiting waterways were not reflected in small-scale data. Changes in travel-speed parameters had a substantial impact also, suggesting the importance of public-health campaigns as a tsunami risk-reduction strategy.     

Evolving Paradigms and Challenges in Estuarine and Coastal Eutrophication Dynamics in a Culturally and Climatically Stressed World

Coastal watersheds support more than one half of the world’s human population and are experiencing unprecedented urban, agricultural, and industrial expansion. The freshwater–marine continua draining these watersheds are impacted increasingly by nutrient inputs and resultant eutrophication, including symptomatic harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, finfish and shellfish kills, and loss of higher plant and animal habitat. In addressing nutrient input reductions to stem and reverse eutrophication, phosphorus (P) has received priority traditionally in upstream freshwater regions, while controlling nitrogen (N) inputs has been the focus of management strategies in estuarine and coastal waters. However, freshwater, brackish, and full-salinity components of this continuum are connected structurally and functionally. Intensification of human activities has caused imbalances in N and P loading, altering nutrient limitation characteristics and complicating successful eutrophication control along the continuum. Several recent examples indicate the need for dual N and P input constraints as the only nutrient management option effective for long-term eutrophication control. Climatic changes increase variability in freshwater discharge with more severe storms and intense droughts and interact closely with nutrient inputs to modulate the magnitude and relative proportions of N and P loading. The effects of these interactions on phytoplankton production and composition were examined in two neighboring North Carolina lagoonal estuaries, the New River and Neuse River Estuaries, which are experiencing concurrent eutrophication and climatically driven hydrologic variability. Efforts aimed at stemming estuarine and coastal eutrophication in these and other similarly impacted estuarine systems should focus on establishing N and P input thresholds that take into account effects of hydrologic variability, so that eutrophication and harmful algal blooms can be controlled over a range of current and predicted climate change scenarios.     

Community variations in social vulnerability to Cascadia-related tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Tsunamis generated by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes pose significant threats to coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Impacts of future tsunamis to individuals and communities will likely vary due to pre-event socioeconomic and demographic differences. In order to assess social vulnerability to Cascadia tsunamis, we adjust a social vulnerability index based on principal component analysis first developed by Cutter et al. (2003) to operate at the census-block level of geography and focus on community-level comparisons along the Oregon coast. The number of residents from blocks in tsunami-prone areas considered to have higher social vulnerability varies considerably among 26 Oregon cities and most are concentrated in four cities and two unincorporated areas. Variations in the number of residents from census blocks considered to have higher social vulnerability in each city do not strongly correlate with the number of residents or city assets in tsunami-prone areas. Methods presented here will help emergency managers to identify community sub-groups that are more susceptible to loss and to develop risk-reduction strategies that are tailored to local conditions.     

A fast tour design method using non-tangent v-infinity leveraging transfer

The announced missions to the Saturn and Jupiter systems renewed the space community interest in simple design methods for gravity assist tours at planetary moons. A key element in such trajectories are the V-Infinity Leveraging Transfers (VILT) which link simple impulsive maneuvers with two consecutive gravity assists at the same moon. VILTs typically include a tangent impulsive maneuver close to an apse location, yielding to a desired change in the excess velocity relative to the moon. In this paper we study the VILT solution space and derive a linear approximation which greatly simplifies the computation of the transfers, and is amenable to broad global searches. Using this approximation, Tisserand graphs, and heuristic optimization procedure we introduce a fast design method for multiple-VILT tours. We use this method to design a trajectory from a highly eccentric orbit around Saturn to a 200-km science orbit at Enceladus. The trajectory is then recomputed removing the linear approximation, showing a Δv change of <4%. The trajectory is 2.7 years long and comprises 52 gravity assists at Titan, Rhea, Dione, Tethys, and Enceladus, and several deterministic maneuvers. Total Δv is only 445 m/s, including the Enceladus orbit insertion, almost 10 times better then the 3.9 km/s of the Enceladus orbit insertion from the Titan–Enceladus Hohmann transfer. The new method and demonstrated results enable a new class of missions that tour and ultimately orbit small mass moons. Such missions were previously considered infeasible due to flight time and Δv constraints.     

The importance of social drivers in the resilient provision of ecosystem services

While a sustained flow of ecosystem services brings tangible benefits to humans, some ecosystem states and suites of services may be more desired by some people than others. Allocating or using the flow of services is loaded with asymmetries, complex power dynamics and political struggles between groups of people. We argue that the issues associated with such allocation and use questions are poorly integrated into the literatures of resilience, sustainability, and vulnerability. To illustrate this, we focus on three socially constructed factors that inhibit a fuller understanding about how to sustain the flow of ecosystem services: (1) rigidity/poverty traps; (2) power asymmetries; and (3) scientization of policy/politicization of science. These factors limit our ability to assess the sustainable flows of ecosystem services, and in particular to better understand the trade-offs and limits to aggregate human activity. We demonstrate that an improved understanding of the allocation trade-offs and limits to the flows of ecosystem services could result from more applied research that integrates the developing fields of deliberative democracy, pragmatic environmental philosophy, and legitimacy and rule compliance. Without the understanding that such integration would bring, researchers and policy makers risk underestimating the limits on flows of ecosystem services and how to accomplish their provision toward the greater collective - rather than individual - good.