Do southern Appalachian Mountain summer stream temperatures respond to removal of understory rhododendron thickets?

Dense understory thickets of the native evergreen shrub Rhododendron maximum expanded initially following elimination of American chestnut by the chestnut blight, and later in response to loss of the eastern hemlock due to hemlock woolly adelgid invasion. Rhododendron thickets often blanket streams and their riparian zones, creating cool, low-light microclimates. To determine the effect of such understory thickets on summer stream temperatures, we removed riparian rhododendron understory on 300 m reaches of two southern Appalachian Mountain headwater streams, while leaving two 300 m reference reaches undisturbed. Overhead canopy was left intact in all four streams, but all streams were selected to have a significant component of dead or dying eastern hemlock in the overstory, creating time-varying canopy gaps throughout the reach. We continuously monitored temperatures upstream, within and downstream of treatment and reference reaches. Temperatures were monitored in all four streams in the summer before treatments were imposed (2014), and for two summers following treatment (2015, 2016). Temperatures varied significantly across and within streams prior to treatment and across years for the reference streams. After rhododendron removal, increases in summer stream temperatures were observed at some locations within the treatment reaches, but these increases did not persist downstream and varied by watershed, sensor, and year. Significant increases in daily maxima in treatment reaches ranged from 0.9 to 2.6°C. Overhead canopy provided enough shade to prevent rhododendron removal from increasing summer temperatures to levels deleterious to native cold-water fauna (average summer temperatures remained below 16°C), and local temperature effects were not persistent.     

Distribution of Winter Flounder, Pseudopleuronectes americanus, in the Hampton–Seabrook Estuary, New Hampshire: Observations from a Field Study

From July to October 2004, five sites in the Hampton–Seabrook Estuary in New Hampshire were sampled with beam and otter trawls. The goals were to describe winter flounder (1) abundance in the estuary, (2) size class distributions, (3) spatial distribution by different size classes, and (4) distribution patterns. Of the 19 species caught, winter flounder was the most abundant and was dominated by young-of-the-year (YOY) fish. The five sites were fairly homogenous in depth, bottom type, salinity, and temperature. However, YOY abundance ranged from 2.1 to 32.1 fish 1,000 m^?2 depending on the site. Benthic community was the best indicator of juvenile winter flounder abundance. Catch data of other organisms fluctuated, but no one species was a strong predictor of winter flounder abundance and distribution. During late summer and early fall, the estuary is used primarily by YOY winter flounder, indicating that this estuary functions as a nursery ground.     

Spinifex biogeochemical expressions of buried gold mineralisation: The great mineral exploration penetrator of transported regolith

A major challenge for mineral explorers is to efficiently detect mineralisation beneath the weathered cover that extends across the landscape. Determination of the elemental composition of plants (biogeochemical exploration) can aid in the detection of buried ore deposits due to their root penetration through the weathered cover. At the coyote prospect in Western Australia a range of plant species were sampled traversing a buried Au orebody. Here it is shown that the soft spinifex (Triodia pungens) accumulated important pathfinder elements related to the mineralisation, which produced a multi-element surficial expression of the underlying ore deposit. Spinifex grasses are one of the most widespread grasses over the Australian continent and have vertical root systems that can extend for many 10s of metres through sedimentary cover and interact with buried mineral deposits and alteration zones in the underlying substrate. Spinifex biogeochemistry therefore has potential to be a low cost, low environmental impact, sampling medium for mineral exploration programs across large parts of arid Australia. The examination of similar grasses from other semi-arid and arid regions from around the world therefore also warrants further investigation.     

Sediment velocity estimation using iterative 3-D migrations of short offset seismic reflection data in deep water

In deep ocean settings where water depth greatly exceeds the source-to-receiver length, the geometry is insufficient for accurate determinations of velocity from reflection-moveout. However, velocities are crucial for estimates of physical properties and image processing. Focusing analyses with conventional post-stack two-dimensional migration improves images, but does not produce geologically meaningful velocities except in the special case of a two-dimensional earth. For the more general case of the three-dimensional earth there is no a priori method to determine the degree of geometrical complexity. We present a technique using a short-offset three-dimensional (3-D) data set over the 5 km deep trench west of the Lesser Antilles. These data illustrate highly sensitive post-stack 3-D focusing analyses (± 20 m s^–1 interval velocities), and the relationship of these seismically derived velocities to rock velocities. In our Barbados example we were able to establish the presence of a widespread 80-160 m thick low-velocity zone at and above the main low-angle fault. This observation suggests the water-rich décollement leaks water into the overlying sections. Also evident is a low-velocity section associated with turbidite sands. These results are confirmed with sparse logging data and well samples. Deep-water short offset 3-D experiments provide a potentially effective approach for velocity estimation, replacing the operational complexity of long-offsets with simpler short-offset techniques. In areas of structural complications and abundant diffracted energy, it is a surprisingly accurate method, utilizing the high fidelity 3-D wavefield and the information carried in zero-offset diffraction ellipsoids. The velocity used to properly collapse a diffraction ellipsoid is explicitly the velocity of propagation in the media since the travel path is known exactly. Thus, the derived velocities should closely represent rock velocities, unlike the 2-D case where the propagation geometry is not known.     

FracKfinder: A MATLAB Toolbox for Computing Three-Dimensional Hydraulic Conductivity Tensors for Fractured Porous Media

Fractures in porous media have been documented extensively. However, they are often omitted from groundwater flow and mass transport models due to a lack of data on fracture hydraulic properties and the computational burden of simulating fractures explicitly in large model domains. We present a MATLAB toolbox, FracKfinder, that automates HydroGeoSphere (HGS), a variably saturated, control volume finite-element model, to simulate an ensemble of discrete fracture network (DFN) flow experiments on a single cubic model mesh containing a stochastically generated fracture network. Because DFN simulations in HGS can simulate flow in both a porous media and a fracture domain, this toolbox computes tensors for both the matrix and fractures of a porous medium. Each model in the ensemble represents a different orientation of the hydraulic gradient, thus minimizing the likelihood that a single hydraulic gradient orientation will dominate the tensor computation. Linear regression on matrices containing the computed three-dimensional hydraulic conductivity (K) values from each rotation of the hydraulic gradient is used to compute the K tensors. This approach shows that the hydraulic behavior of fracture networks can be simulated where fracture hydraulic data are limited. Simulation of a bromide tracer experiment using K tensors computed with FracKfinder in HGS demonstrates good agreement with a previous large-column, laboratory study. The toolbox provides a potential pathway to upscale groundwater flow and mass transport processes in fractured media to larger scales.     

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

Natural Hazards - Effective tsunami risk reduction requires an understanding of how at-risk populations are specifically vulnerable to tsunami threats. Vulnerability assessments primarily have been...     

A simple carbon cycle representation for economic and policy analyses

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that couple the climate system and the economy require a representation of ocean CO₂ uptake to translate human-produced emissions to atmospheric concentrations and in turn to climate change. The simple linear carbon cycle representations in most IAMs are not however physical at long timescales, since ocean carbonate chemistry makes CO₂ uptake highly nonlinear. No linearized representation can capture the ocean’s dual-mode behavior, with initial rapid uptake and then slow equilibration over ∽10,000 years. In a business-as-usual scenario followed by cessation of emissions, the carbon cycle in the 2007 version of the most widely used IAM, DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), produces errors of ∽2^°C by the year 2300 and ∽6^°C by the year 3500. We suggest here a simple alternative representation that captures the relevant physics and show that it reproduces carbon uptake in several more complex models to within the inter-model spread. The scheme involves little additional complexity over the DICE model, making it a useful tool for economic and policy analyses.     

Linear stability and stable modes of geostrophic fronts

Abstract

A Rayleigh integral is used to prove that an unbounded geostrophic front of uniform potential vorticity is stable with respect to small perturbations of arbitrary wavelength. The ageostrophic theory developed in this study yields a stable, near-inertial, long trapped mode. Recent oceanic observations of the increase in the energy of the inertial peak in the vicinity of fronts support the existence of this inertial trapped mode. In addition the theory yields a geostrophic mode which is expected to become unstable when the potential vorticity is not uniform.     

Ecological Risk Assessment for seabird interactions in Western and Central Pacific longline fisheries

The risk of seabird–fishery interactions in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) was examined by analysing the overlap of seabird distributions with tuna and swordfish pelagic longline fisheries managed by the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) and its constituent members. The study used spatially-explicit Productivity–Susceptibility Analysis (PSA). Key data inputs were species productivity, fishing effort, likelihood of capture and species density by region. The outputs tailored results to the needs of fisheries- and wildlife-managers, indicating areas of greatest risk of species interactions, species of greatest concern for population impacts, and the flags or fisheries most likely to contribute to the risk. Large albatross species were found to be most likely to suffer population effects when exposed to longline fishing activity, followed by the larger petrels from the genuses Procellaria, Macronectes and Pterodroma. A mixture of coastal states with nesting seabird populations in their Exclusive Economic Zones (New Zealand, Australia and United States of America), distant water fishing nations (Japan, Taiwan) and flags of convenience (Vanuatu) contributed 90% of the risk to seabird populations. Recommendations include enhancing the level of fisheries observer monitoring in areas indicated as high to medium risk for seabird interactions, and consideration of spatial management tools, such as more intensive or more stringent seabird bycatch mitigation requirements in high- to medium-risk areas. The methods used, and similar studies conducted in the Atlantic Ocean could lead to improved targeting of monitoring resources, and greater specificity in the needs for seabird-mitigation measures. This will assist in reducing seabird mortality in longline fishing operations and with more effective use of resources for fishery managers in both domestic fisheries and RFMOs.     

Toward a physically plausible upper bound of sea-level rise projections

Anthropogenic sea-level rise (SLR) causes considerable risks. Designing a sound SLR risk-management strategy requires careful consideration of decision-relevant uncertainties such as the reasonable upper bound of future SLR. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment reported a likely upper SLR bound in the year 2100 near 0.6 m (meter). More recent studies considering semi-empirical modeling approaches and kinematic constraints on glacial melting suggest a reasonable 2100 SLR upper bound of approximately 2 m. These recent studies have broken important new ground, but they largely neglect uncertainties surrounding thermal expansion (thermosteric SLR) and/or observational constraints on ocean heat uptake. Here we quantify the effects of key parametric uncertainties and observational constraints on thermosteric SLR projections using an Earth system model with a dynamic three-dimensional ocean, which provides a mechanistic representation of deep ocean processes and heat uptake. Considering these effects nearly doubles the contribution of thermosteric SLR compared to previous estimates and increases the reasonable upper bound of 2100 SLR projections by 0.25 m. As an illustrative example of the effect of overconfidence, we show how neglecting thermosteric uncertainty in projections of the SLR upper bound can considerably bias risk analysis and hence the design of adaptation strategies. For conditions close to the Port of Los Angeles, the 0.25 m increase in the reasonable upper bound can result in a flooding-risk increase by roughly three orders of magnitude. Results provide evidence that relatively minor underestimation of the upper bound of projected SLR can lead to major downward biases of future flooding risks.