Evaluating uncertainties in regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale

This work focuses on the evaluation of different sources of uncertainty affecting regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale, using the MM5 model. The simulations cover a 3-month period for the austral spring season. Several four-member ensembles were performed in order to quantify the uncertainty due to: the internal variability; the definition of the regional model domain; the choice of physical parameterizations and the selection of physical parameters within a particular cumulus scheme. The uncertainty was measured by means of the spread among individual members of each ensemble during the integration period. Results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in the initial conditions, represents the lowest level of uncertainty for every variable analyzed. The geographic distribution of the spread among ensemble members depends on the variable: for precipitation and temperature the largest spread is found over tropical South America while for the mean sea level pressure the largest spread is located over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, where large synoptic-scale activity occurs. Using nudging techniques to ingest the boundary conditions reduces dramatically the internal variability. The uncertainty due to the domain choice displays a similar spatial pattern compared with the internal variability, except for the mean sea level pressure field, though its magnitude is larger all over the model domain for every variable. The largest spread among ensemble members is found for the ensemble in which different combinations of physical parameterizations are selected. The perturbed physics ensemble produces a level of uncertainty slightly larger than the internal variability. This study suggests that no matter what the source of uncertainty is, the geographical distribution of the spread among members of the ensembles is invariant, particularly for precipitation and temperature.     

Detection of Fast Radio Bursts on the Large Scanning Antenna of the Lebedev Physical Institute

Astronomy Reports - Results of a search for individual impulsive signals on the Large Scanning Antenna of the Lebedev Physical Institute at 111 MHz carried out from July 2012 through May 2018 are...     

The evolution of stars paired with supermassive black holes

A star located in the close vicinity of a supermassive black hole (SMBH) in a galactic nucleus or a globular-cluster core could form a close binary with the SMBH, with the star possibly filling its Roche lobe. The evolution of such binary systems is studied assuming that the SMBH mainly accretes matter from the companion star and that the presence of gas in the vicinity of the SMBH does not appreciably influence variations in the star’s orbit. The evolution of the star–SMBH system is mainly determined by the same processes as those determining the evolution of ordinary binaries. The main differences are that the star is subject to an incident flux of hard radiation arising during the accretion of matter by the SMBH, and, in detached systems, the SMBH captures virtually all the wind emitted by its stellar companion, which appreciably influences the evolution of the major axis of the orbit. Moreover, the exchange between the orbital angular momentum and the angular momentum of the overflowing matter may not be entirely standard in such systems. The computations assume that there will be no such exchange of angular momentum if the characteristic timescale for mass transfer is shorter than the thermal time scale of the star. The absorption of external radiation in the stellar envelope was computed using the same formalism applied when computing the opacity of the stellar matter. The numerical simulations show that, with the adopted assumptions, three types of evolution are possible for such a binary system, depending on the masses and the initial separation of the SMBH and star. Type I evolution leads to the complete destruction of the star. Only this type of evolution is realized for low-mass main-sequence (MS) stars, even those with large initial separations from their SMBHs. Massive MS stars will also be destroyed if the initial separation is sufficiently small. However, two other types of evolution are possible for massive stars, with a determining role in the time variations of the parameters of the star–SMBH system being played by the possible growth of the massive star into a red giant during the time it is located in the close vicinity of the SMBH. Type II evolution can be realized for massive MS stars that are initially farther from the SMBH than in the case of disruption. In this case, the massive star fills its Roche lobe during its expansion, but is not fully destroyed; the star retreats inside its Roche lobe after a period of intense mass loss. This type of evolution is characterized by an increase in the orbital period of the system with time. As a result, the remnant of the star (its former core) is preserved as a white dwarf, and can end up at a fairly large distance from the SMBH. Type III evolution can be realized formassiveMSstars that are initially located still farther from their SMBHs, and also for massive stars that are already evolved at the initial time. In these cases, the star moves away from the SMBH without filling its Roche lobe, due to its intense stellar wind. The remnants of such stars can also end up at a fairly large distances from their SMBHs.     

地磁数据分析的一些思考

通过若干实例,本文讨论了地磁数据分析中的一些方法.这些方法包括时间序列的多项式拟合,相关性分析,频谱分析和小波分析等.在Matlab和AutoSignal软件下实现了以上方法,并基于这些方法研究了地磁场形态和地磁现象的频谱特征.我们分析了Surlari观测台（余纬45.3°,经度26.3°）的地磁时间序列,并与Ottawa（余纬44.6°,〖JP2〗经度284.5°）,Canberra（余纬125.3°,经度149.3°）, Kakioka（余纬53.8°,经度140.2°）,Vernadsky〖JP〗（余纬155.3°,经度295.7°）等台站的结果进行了对比分析,讨论了Fourier变换时间窗和小波基函数选取的影响,有限长时间序列引起的边缘效应,以及小波尺度和Fourier频率的关系等问题.我们采用谱分析和小波分析处理了2007年两个台站的地磁数据,研究了地磁场形态和地磁现象的频谱特征,并讨论了Fourier变换和小波变换的优缺点.     

Transformation of the quality of overland runoff in the influence zone of a metallurgic complex

The transformation of water chemical composition at different stages of overland runoff formation in the influence zone of a metallurgic complex is considered. The dynamics of concentrations of basic ions and microelements in different categories of overland water at various distances from the source of emissions is shown. The amounts of metals carried out by spring flood runoff into water bodies as a consequence of the air-born anthropogenic pollution of watersheds are calculated.     

Phylogenetic Diversity of Microorganisms from Chemocline of the Meromictic Soda Lake Doroninskoe(Zabaikalie,Russia)

正1 Introduction Many soda and salt lakes are characterized by the formation of the meromictic conditions under which a part of the water column is not involved in the annual process of mixing(Mac Intyre,Melack,1982).This creates an     

The role of close passages of galaxies and the asymmetry of their dark haloes in the formation of their spiral patterns

The influence of close passages of galaxies on the shapes of disk galaxies and the distribution of stars in them is studied for several types of interactions in the framework of the restricted N-body problem. Depending on the conditions adopted, either two spiral density waves or ring structures are formed in the stellar disk of the galaxy. These structures can generate star formation fronts with the corresponding shape, as are observed in disk galaxies. Our calculations can also be applied to study the influence of the passage of a nearby star on a protoplanetary disk. The formation of ring structures there could specify the type of planet formation in the outer regions of the planetary system and the distribution of semimajor axes for the planetary orbits. We use the same model to study the generation and evolution of spiral density waves in the stellar disks of galaxies as a result of the recently found asymmetry of the gravitational potential in the massive dark haloes in disk galaxies. The dipole component of the gravitational field of the halo can continuously permanently generate the spiral structure in disk galaxies.     

Winter distribution of euphausiids (Euphausiacea) in the Barents Sea (2000–2005)

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Barents Sea euphausiids populations in the warm period (2000–2005) based on the study of their structure dynamics and distribution under the influence of abiotic and biotic factors. For estimation of their aggregations in the bottom layer, the traditional method was used with the help of the modified egg net (0.2 m² opening area, 564 μm mesh size). The net is used for collecting euphausiids in the autumn–winter period when their activity is reduced, which results in high-catch efficiency. The findings confirmed the major formation patterns of the euphausiids species composition associated with climate change in the Arctic basin. As before, in the warm years, one can see a clear-cut differentiation of space distribution of the dominant euphausiids Thysanoessa genus with localization of the more thermophilic Thysanoessa inermis in the north-west Barents Sea and Thysanoessa raschii in the east. The major euphausiids aggregations are formed of these species. In 2004, the first data of euphausiids distribution in the northern Barents Sea (77–79°N) were obtained, and demonstrated extremely high concentrations of T. inermis in this area, with the biomass as high as 1.7–2.4 g m⁻² in terms of dry weight. These data have improved our knowledge of the distribution and euphausiids abundance during periods of elevated sea-water temperatures in the Barents Sea. The oceanic Atlantic species were found to increase in abundance due to elevated advection to the Barents Sea during the study period. Thus, after nearly a 30-year-long absence of the moderate subtropical Nematoscelis megalops in the Barents Sea, they were found again in 2003–2005. However in comparison with 1960, the north-east border of its distribution considerably shifted to 73°50′N 50°22′E. The portion of Meganyctiphanes norvegica also varied considerably—from 10% to 20% of the total euphausiids population in the warm 1950s–1960s almost to complete disappearing in 1970–1990s. The peak of this species’ occurrence (18–26%) took place in the beginning of warm period (1999–2000) after a succession of cold years. The subsequent reduction of the relative abundance of M. norvegica to 7% might have been mostly caused by fish predation during a period of low population densities of capelin. This high predation pressure may therefore have been mediated both by other pelagic fishes (i.e. herring, blue whiting, polar cod) but also by demersal fishes such as cod and haddock. Similar sharp fluctuations in the capelin stock (the major consumer of euphausiids) created marked perturbations in the food web in the Barents Sea in the middle 1980s and the early 1990s.     

Spectroscopic and photometric observations of symbiotic nova PU Vul during 2009–2016

A new set of low-resolution spectral and UBVJHKL-photometric observations of the symbiotic nova PU Vul is presented. The binary has been evolving after its symbiotic nova outburst in 1977 and now it is in the nebular stage. It is found that the third orbital cycle(after 1977) was characterized by great changes in associated light curves. Now, PU Vul exhibits a sine-wave shape in all the light curves(with an amplitude in the U band of about 0.7 mag), which is typical for symbiotic stars in the quiescent state. Brightness variability due to pulsations of the cool component is now clearly visible in the VRI light curves. The amplitude of the pulsations increases from 0.5 mag in the V band to 0.8 mag in the I band. These two types of variability, as well as a very slow change in the physical parameters of the hot component due to evolution after the outburst of 1977, influence the spectral energy distribution(SED)of the system. The variability of emission lines is highly complex. Only hydrogen line fluxes vary with orbital phase. An important feature of the third orbital cycle is the first emergence of the OVI, 6828  Raman scattering line. We determine the temperature of the hot component by means of the Zanstra method applied to the He II, 4686  line. Our estimate is about 150 000 K for the spectrum obtained near orbital maximum in 2014. The VO spectral index derived near pulsation minimum corresponds to M6 spectral class for the cool component of PU Vul.