Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean

We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M _w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.     

The geochemistry of aliphatic and polar organic tracers in sediments from Lake Bera, Malaysia

The molecular distributions of homologous aliphatic lipid compounds (n-alkanes, n-alkanoic acids, n-alkanols, n-alkanals and n-alkan-2-ones) were investigated in sediments of Lake Bera, Malaysia as well as in plant waxes from the vicinity using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. In addition, triterpenoids of the oleanane, ursane, lupane and friedelane series, and their diagenetic products were also identified. Using the aquatic proxy P_aq, it was found that the n-alkanes present in surface sediments S1, S5 and S6 correspond to an input from emergent macrophytes, whereas in sediments collected from open water (S2, S3 and S4) they correspond to input from submerged/floating macrophytes. The presence of n-alkan-2-ols, a commonly found homologous series in the sediments as well as in the plant wax, is novel here. In addition, the presence of 24-methylcycloart-22-enol and 24-ethylcycloart-22-enol in sediments as well as the plant wax of Pandanus helicopus, a dominant reed around the lake, also supports the input of plant biomarkers to the sediments. The occurrence of 5-membered ring triterpenoid derivatives as major diagenetic products of the triterpenoids identified (e.g. friedelan-2,3-dione) shows that the degradation of the organic matter in the sediments occurs mainly under oxic conditions. Also, the presence of ring-A degraded triterpenoids (dihydroputranjivic acid, 3-nor-2,4-seco-friedelane, 4α- and 4β-3-norfriedelanes, A-norfriedel-10-one, and A-norfriedel-8-en-10-one) and the aromatized triterpenoid hydrocarbons (mono- and triaromatic derivatives) as minor diagenetic products indicates photochemical and microorganism-mediated alteration reactions of natural products in the sediments. Additional novel polyfunctional friedelane derivatives, namely friedelane-2,3-dione, friedelane-1,3-diol-2-one and friedel-1(10)-ene-1,3-diol-2-one were identified for the first time in this study. These novel polyfunctional triterpenoids were inferred to derive from the oxidation of the triterpenoids from higher plants in this oxic tropical environment. For future reference purposes, the mass spectra of the identified polar triterpenoids are also presented here. This study provides important data on the biogeochemistry of organic matter in a tropical lake of SE Asia.     

Flood susceptibility modelling using advanced ensemble machine learning models

Floods are one of nature's most destructive disasters because of the immense damage to land, buildings, and human fatalities.It is difficult to forecast the areas that are vulnerable to flash flooding due to the dynamic and complex nature of the flash floods.Therefore, earlier identification of flash flood susceptible sites can be performed using advanced machine learning models for managing flood disasters.In this study, we applied and assessed two new hybrid ensemble models, namely Dagging and Random Subspace(RS) coupled with Artificial Neural Network(ANN), Random Forest(RF), and Support Vector Machine(SVM) which are the other three state-of-the-art machine learning models for modelling flood susceptibility maps at the Teesta River basin, the northern region of Bangladesh.The application of these models includes twelve flood influencing factors with 413 current and former flooding points, which were transferred in a GIS environment.The information gain ratio, the multicollinearity diagnostics tests were employed to determine the association between the occurrences and flood influential factors.For the validation and the comparison of these models, for the ability to predict the statistical appraisal measures such as Freidman, Wilcoxon signed-rank, and t-paired tests and Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(ROC) were employed.The value of the Area Under the Curve(AUC) of ROC was above 0.80 for all models.For flood susceptibility modelling, the Dagging model performs superior, followed by RF,the ANN, the SVM, and the RS, then the several benchmark models.The approach and solution-oriented outcomes outlined in this paper will assist state and local authorities as well as policy makers in reducing flood-related threats and will also assist in the implementation of effective mitigation strategies to mitigate future damage.     

On the cratonization of the Arabian-Nubian Shield:Constraints from gneissic granitoids in south Eastern Desert,Egypt

The Shaitian granite complex(SGC) spans more than 80 Ma of crustal growth in the Arabian–Nubian Shield in southeast Egypt.It is a voluminous composite intrusion(60 km~2) comprising a host tonalite massif intruded by subordinate dyke-like masses of trondhjemite,granodiorite and monzogranite.The host tonalite,in turn,encloses several,fine-grained amphibolite enclaves.U-Pb zircon dating indicates a wide range of crystallization ages within the SGC(800 ± 18 Ma for tonalites;754 ± 3.9 Ma for trondhjemite;738 ± 3.8 Ma for granodiorite;and 717 ± 3.2 Ma for monzogranite),suggesting crystallization of independent magma pulses.The high positiveεNdi(+6–+8) indicate that the melting sources were dominated by juvenile material without any significant input from older crust.Application of zircon saturation geothermometry indicates increasing temperatures during the generation of melts from 745 ± 31 ℃ for tonalite to 810 ± 25 ℃ for trondhjemite;840 ± 10 ℃ for granodiorite;and 868 ± 10 ℃ for monzogranite.The pressure of partial melting is loosely constrained to be below the stability of residual garnet(10 kbar) as inferred from the almost flat HREE pattern((Gd/Lu)N= 0.9–1.1),but 3 kbar for the stability of residual amphibole as inferred from the significantly lower NbNand TaNcompared with LREENand the sub-chondrite Nb/Ta ratios exhibited by the granitic phases.The inverse relation between the generation temperatures and the ages estimates of the granitoid lithologies argue against a significant role of fractional crystallization.The major and trace element contents indicate the emplacement of the SGC within a subduction zone setting.It lacks distinctive features for melt derived from a subducted slab(e.g.high Sr/Y and high(La/Yb)Nratios),and the relatively low MgO and Ni contents in all granite phases within the SGC suggest melting within the lower crust of an island arc overlying a mantle wedge.Comparison with melts produced during melting experiments indicates an amphibolite of basaltic composition is the best candidate as source for the tonalite,trondhjemite and granodiorite magmas whereas the monzogranite magma is most consistent with fusion of a tonalite protolith.Given the overlapping Sm-Nd isotope ratios as well as several trace element ratios between monzogranite and tonalite samples,it is reasonable to suggest that the renewed basaltic underplating may have caused partial melting of tonalite and the emplacement of monzogranite melt within the SGC.The emplacement of potassic granite(monzogranite) melts subsequent to the emplacement of Na-rich granites(tonalitetrondhjemite-granodiorite) most likely suggests major crustal thickening prior arc collision and amalgamation into the over thickened proto-crust of the Arabian-Nubian shield.Eventually,after complete consolidation,the whole SGC was subjected to regional deformation,most probably during accretion to the Saharan Metacraton(arc–continent collisions) in the late Cryogenian-Ediacaran times(650–542 Ma).     

Development of calcrete of the Late Cretaceous carbonate platform,northern Jordan,and its tectonic implications

A calcrete horizon, 3–10 m thick, is found exposed in northern Jordan in three localities, Rumman, Marsa’, and Wasfi At Tal forest (WTF). It is situated at the base of the dominantly limestone, Late Cenomanian Hummar Formation, separating it from the underlying marly Fuheis Formation. The calcrete horizon exhibits all the diagnostic features characteristic of calcrete, such as diagenetic pisoids; a mottled or clotted texture; circumgranular cracks around grains in a nodular texture; pendant or microstalactitic cement; meniscus cement; plant roots or rhizogenic structures, both longitudinal and transverse; exfoliation on boulder and cobbles; alagally laminated hard pans; and abundant dissolution of cracks and vugs. Consequently, it represents a subaerial erosional unconformity and type 1 sequence boundary (SB) that was not previously noticed. The Hummar Formation is considered as a third-order sequence with the SB at the base of the calcrete horizon, while the calcrete horizon itself forms the lowstand system tracts (LST). The transgressive systems tracts (TST) involve the lower two third of the Hummar Formation ending with peloidal grainstone representing the maximum flooding surface (MFSs). The rest of the formation is the falling highstand systems tracts (HST). The next SB is not seen due to a thick soil-covered gap. The calcrete horizon formed due to the formation of a paleohigh, in the study area, associated with the compression produced by the initial subduction of the Afro-Arabian Plate under the Eurasian Plate during the Late Cenomanian, slightly earlier than the previously known Turonian subduction and compression.     

Speaking of the devil: a systematic literature review on community preparedness for earthquakes

Natural Hazards - Community preparedness in facing natural hazards such as earthquakes is extremely important. Although there are numerous studies on community preparedness for earthquakes, the...     

Spatial-temporal characteristics of epidemic spread in-out flow——Using SARS epidemic in Beijing as a case study

For better detecting the spatial-temporal change mode of individual susceptible-infected-symptomatic-treated-recovered epidemic progress and the characteristics of information/material flow in the epidemic spread network between regions,the epidemic spread mechanism of virus input and output was explored based on individuals and spatial regions.Three typical spatial information parameters including working unit/address,onset location and reporting unit were selected and SARS epidemic spread in-out flow in Beijing was defined based on the SARS epidemiological investigation data in China from 2002 to 2003 while its epidemiological characteristics were discussed.Furthermore,by the methods of spatial-temporal statistical analysis and network characteristic analysis,spatial-temporal high-risk hotspots and network structure characteristics of Beijing outer in-out flow were explored,and spatial autocorrelation/heterogeneity,spatial-temporal evolutive rules and structure characteristics of the spread network of Beijing inner in-out flow were comprehensively analyzed.The results show that(1)The outer input flow of SARS epidemic in Beijing concentrated on Shanxi and Guangdong provinces,but the outer output flow was disperse and mainly includes several north provinces such as Guangdong and Shandong.And the control measurement should focus on the early and interim progress of SARS breakout.(2)The inner output cases had significant positive autocorrelative characteristics in the whole studied region,and the high-risk population was young and middle-aged people with ages from 20 to 60 and occupations of medicine and civilian labourer.(3)The downtown districts were main high-risk hotspots of SARS epidemic in Beijing,the northwest suburban districts/counties were secondary high-risk hotspots,and northeast suburban areas were relatively safe.(4)The district/county nodes in inner spread network showed small-world characteristics and information/material flow had notable heterogeneity.The suburban Tongzhou and Changping districts were the underlying high-risk regions,and several suburban districts such as Shunyi and Huairou were the relatively low-risk safe regions as they carried out minority information/material flow.The exploration and analysis based on epidemic spread in-out flow help better detect and discover the potential spatial-temporal evolutive rules and characteristics of SARS epidemic,and provide a more effective theoretical basis for emergency/control measurements and decision-making.     

Chitosan – A Sizing Agent in Fabric Production – Development and Ecological Evaluation

Chitosan, a natural polymer, was investigated as a possible sizing agent in fabric production by appropriate modification in the textile industry. Based on recipe developments at a laboratory‐scale, the ecological and economical potential of mainly cotton yarns were demonstrated and developed. Subsequent tests within the scope of industrial production confirmed the findings of the basic developments. As an interesting alternative to the conventional sizing process involving the removal of the size after weaving, the use of appropriate processing technologies makes it possible to apply chitosan in the form of a sizing agent resistant to wash‐out processes. Therefore, the wash‐out process and the combined wastewater loading can be avoided and the properties of chitosan can be used beneficially in the later applications of the fabric. The traditional method of sizing and weaving developments as well as the analyses of material recycling showed the possibilities of using closed circuits in textile production involving sizing agent and water. It is possible that a chitosan‐specific enzyme suitable for production conditions, which facilitates the wash‐out process in combination with the biodegradation of the wastewater in a sewage plant, could be developed.