On rising temperature trends of Karachi in Pakistan

Karachi is the largest city of Pakistan. The temperature change in Karachi is studied in this research by analyzing the time series data of mean maximum temperature (MMxT), mean minimum temperature (MMiT) and mean annual temperature (MAT) from 1947 to 2005 (59 years). Data is analyzed in three parts by running linear regression and by taking anomalies of all time periods: (a) whole period from 1947–2005; (b) phase one 1947–1975 and (c) phase two 1976–2005. During 1947 to 2005 MMxT has increased about 4.6°C, MMiT has no change and MAT has increased 2.25°C. During 1947–1975, MMxT increased 1.9°C, in this period there is − 1.3°C decrease in MMiT and MAT has raised upto 0.3°C. During 1976–2005, the MMxT, MMiT and MAT increased 2.7°C, 1.2°C and 1.95°C, respectively. The analysis shows significantly the role of extreme vulnerability of MMxT in rising the temperature of Karachi than the MMiT.     

Vulnerability and adaptability of wheat production in different climatic zones of Pakistan under climate change scenarios

Ten wheat production sites of Pakistan were categorized into four climatic zones i.e. arid, semi-arid, sub-humid and humid to explore the vulnerability of wheat production in these zones to climate change using CSM-Cropsim-CERES-Wheat model. The analysis was based on multi-year (1971–2000) crop model simulation runs using daily weather series under scenarios of increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO₂) along with two scenarios of water management. Apart from this, sowing date as an adaptation option to offset the likely impacts of climate change was also considered. Increase in temperature resulted in yield declines in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid zone. But the humid zone followed a positive trend of gain in yield with rise in temperature up to 4°C. Within a water regime, increase in CO₂ concentration from 375 to 550 and 700 ppm will exert positive effect on gain in wheat yield but this positive effect is significantly variable in different climatic zones under rainfed conditions than the full irrigation. The highest response was shown by arid zone followed by semi-arid, sub-humid and humid zones. But if the current baseline water regimes (i.e. full irrigation in arid and semi-arid zones and rainfed in sub-humid and humid zones) persist in future, the sub-humid zone will be most benefited in terms of significantly higher percent gain in yield by increasing CO₂ level, mainly because of its rainfed water regime. Within a CO₂ level the changes in water supply from rainfed to full irrigation shows an intense degree of responsiveness in terms of yield gain at 375 ppm CO₂ level compared to 550 and 700 ppm. Arid and semi-arid zones were more responsive compared to sub-humid and humid zones. Rise in temperature reduced the length of crop life cycle in all areas, though at an accelerated rate in the humid zone. These results revealed that the climatic zones have shown a variable intensity of vulnerability to different scenarios of climate change and water management due to their inherent specific and spatial climatic features. In order to cope with the negative effects of climate change, alteration in sowing date towards cooler months will be an appropriate response by the farmers.     

Chemical composition of crustal xenoliths from southwestern Syria: Characterization of the upper part of the lower crust beneath the Arabian plate

The chemical bulk rock composition of 37 xenoliths, brought from depths of 25–30 km to the surface by penetrating Cenozoic alkali basaltic magma, from the Shamah Harrat, southwestern Syria, was determined by XRF spectroscopy. The geochemical character of these xenoliths points to original marls and within-plate igneous rocks. To obtain the mean chemical composition of the corresponding upper portion of the lower crust, the compositions of the 37 xenoliths were averaged and a leucogranitic and upper crustal component was added to account for assimilation by the Cenozoic magmas. This mean is more basic (SiO₂—50.5 wt%) and richer in HFSE, LREE, and LILE compared to compositions of the lower crust given by Taylor and McLennan [1985. The Continental Crust: Its Composition and Evolution. Blackwell, Oxford, 312pp.] and Rudnick and Gao [2005. Composition of the continental crust. In: Rudnick, R.L. (Ed.), The Crust. Treatise on Geochemistry, vol. 3. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 1–64]. Calculations of the seismic compressional-wave velocity from our compositional mean, using the PERPLE_X computer software, yielded values around 6.85 km/s, which are in accordance with reported seismic studies for the corresponding depth levels (6.7–7.1 km/s).     

Seismic sources for southern Pakistan and seismic hazard assessment of Karachi

Natural Hazards - Karachi is Pakistan’s largest city with population exceeding 18 million and is amongst the top five most congested cities in the world. Karachi has experienced no earthquake...     

Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0–8.3 moment magnitude (M_W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M_W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.     

Seismic fragility functions for code compliant and non-compliant RC SMRF structures in Pakistan

Fragility functions are derived for low-rise code compliant & non-compliant special moment resisting frames (SMRFs). Non-compliant SMRFs those built in low strength concrete and lacking confining ties in joint panel zones, commonly found in developing countries. Shake table tests were performed on single-storey and two-storey 1:3 reduced scale representative frames to understand the damage mechanism and develop deformation-based damage scale. The non-compliant SMRF experienced column flexure cracking, longitudinal bar-slip in beam and observed with cover concrete spalling from the joint panels. The code compliant SMRF experienced flexure cracks in beam/column, and experienced joint cracking under extreme shaking. Numerical modeling technique is developed for inelastic modeling of reinforced concrete frame with beam bar-slip and joint damageability using SeismoStruct. Natural accelerograms were used to analyze the considered frames through incremental dynamic analyses in SeismoStruct. A probabilistic based approach was used to derive fragility functions for the considered frames. An example case study is presented for damageability evaluation of structures for earthquakes of various return periods (43, 72, 475, 2475 years).     

Artificial neural network simulation for prediction of suspended sediment concentration in the River Ramganga,Ganges Basin,India

The relation between the water discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of the River Ramganga at Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, in the Himalayas, has been modeled using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The current study validates the practical capability and usefulness of this tool for simulating complex nonlinear, real world, river system processes in the Himalayan scenario. The modeling approach is based on the time series data collected from January to December (2008-2010) for Q and SSC. Three ANNs (T1-T3) with different network configurations have been developed and trained using the Levenberg Marquardt Back Propagation Algorithm in the Matlab routines. Networks were optimized using the enumeration technique, and, finally, the best network is used to predict the SSC values for the year 2011. The values thus obtained through the ANN model are compared with the observed values of SSC. The coefficient of determination (R2), for the optimal network was found to be 0.99. The study not only provides insight into ANN modeling in the Himalayan river scenario, but it also focuses on the importance of understanding a river basin and the factors that affect the SSC, before attempting to model it. Despite the temporal variations in the study area, it is possible to model and successfully predict the SSC values with very simplistic ANN models.     

Greenhouse gases abatement by catalytic dry reforming of methane to syngas over samarium oxide-supported cobalt catalyst

Anthropogenic activities often result in the emissions of methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) which are the principal components of greenhouse gases. The mitigation of these gases to avert further occurrence of global warming has attracted a lot of research interest. In this study, the potential of greenhouse gases abatement via catalytic CO₂ (dry) reforming of methane to syngas over samarium oxide-supported cobalt (20 wt% Co/80 wt% Sm₂O₃) catalyst was investigated. The 20 wt% Co/80 wt% Sm₂O₃ material was synthesized via wet impregnation method and characterized using different instrument techniques. The methane dry reforming reaction, as well as its kinetics over the catalyst, was studied in a stainless steel fixed-bed continuous flow reactor at feed (CH₄:CO₂) ratios range of 0.1–1.0, temperature range of 923–1023 K and gas hourly space velocity (GHSV) of 30,000 h^?1. The 20 wt% Co/80 wt% Sm₂O₃ catalyst showed promising catalytic activity evident from the highest CH₄ and CO₂ conversion of ~71 and ~74% as well as the highest hydrogen (H₂) and carbon monoxide (CO) yield of ~62 and ~73%, respectively. Moreover, the methane dry reforming over the 20 wt% Co/80 wt% Sm₂O₃ catalyst produces H₂/CO ratio close to unity hence suitable for use as a chemical intermediate for synthesis of oxygenated fuels. The kinetic data obtained from the methane dry reforming were fitted to power law model. Apparent activation energies of 88.62, 80.12, 108.12 and 100.91 kJ mol^?1 were obtained for CH₄, CO₂, H₂ and CO, respectively. The characterization of the spent 20 wt% Co/80 wt% Sm₂O₃ catalyst after 4 h of time-on-stream has confirmed the presence of amorphous carbon which can easily be gasified.     

Feasibility,emission and fuel requirement analysis of hybrid car versus solar electric car: a comparative study

The problem regarding environment has been considered as contemporary issue, and to cater this, various technologies have been revolutionized in vehicle transport field. Efforts have been made to make vehicle engine efficient and introducing hybridized vehicles with the aim of reducing emissions and less fuel dependency. In essence of this, trends of solar electric cars in different countries have been reviewed. Feasibility analysis is done by doing fuel cost analysis of two cases, i.e., simple hybrid vehicle and hybrid vehicle equipped with solar module and increased battery energy storage capacity for a specific round trip distance between two cities, i.e., Rawalpindi and Islamabad in comparison with feasibility of third case, i.e., proposed solar electric car model. The solar module selection along with desired number of batteries with charging and discharging time and motor power required to carry five persons weight (70 kg each) is calculated for third case. Moreover, total carbon dioxide emission analysis has been carried out from car material production to its assembly, manufacturing solar module and nickel metal hydride battery for each case. The annual carbon dioxide emitted from fuel in first two cases relative to electric outlet in third case for specific distance has been analyzed. On large scale, emission analyses for hundred cars of each case have been done at 100 km distance. From calculations, it is revealed that overall emissions in third case on large scale and from its material production, assembly, solar module and batteries manufacturing perspective are comparatively less than other cases.