Bayesian and Neural Network Approaches to Estimate Deep Temperature Distribution for Assessing a Supercritical Geothermal System: Evaluation Using a Numerical Model

The temperature distribution at depth is a key variable when assessing the potential of a supercritical geothermal resource as well as a conventional geothermal resource. Data-driven estimation by a machine-learning approach is a promising way to estimate temperature distributions at depth in geothermal fields. In this study, we developed two methodologies—one based on Bayesian estimation and the other on neural networks—to estimate temperature distributions in geothermal fields. These methodologies can be used to supplement existing temperature logs, by estimating temperature distributions in unexplored regions of the subsurface, based on electrical resistivity data, observed geological/mineralogical boundaries, and microseismic observations. We evaluated the accuracy and characteristics of these methodologies using a numerical model of the Kakkonda geothermal field, Japan, where a temperature above 500 °C was observed below a depth of about 3.7 km. When using geological and geophysical knowledge as prior information for the machine learning methods, the results demonstrate that the approaches can provide subsurface temperature estimates that are consistent with the temperature distribution given by the numerical model. Using a numerical model as a benchmark helps to understand the characteristics of the machine learning approaches and may help to identify ways of improving these methods.

     

Seasonal variation of volatile organic iodine compounds in the water column of Funka Bay,Hokkaido, Japan

Volatile organic iodine compounds (VOIs) emitted from the ocean surface to the air play an important role in atmospheric chemistry. Shipboard observations were conducted in Funka Bay, Hokkaido, Japan, bimonthly or monthly from March 2012 to December 2014, to elucidate the seasonal variations of VOI concentrations in seawater and their sea-to-air iodine fluxes. The bay water exchanges with the open ocean water of the North Pacific twice a year (early spring and autumn). Vertical profiles of CH₂I₂, CH₂ClI, CH₃I, and C₂H₅I concentrations in the bay water were measured bimonthly or monthly within an identified water mass. The VOI concentrations began to increase after early April at the end of the diatom spring bloom, and represented substantial peaks in June or July. The temporal variation of the C₂H₅I profile, which showed a distinct peak in the bottom layer from April to July, was similar to the PO₄ ^3? variation profile. Correlation between C₂H₅I and PO₄ ^3? concentrations (r = 0.93) suggests that C₂H₅I production was associated with degradation of organic matter deposited on the bottom after the spring bloom. CH₂I₂ and CH₂ClI concentrations increased substantially in the surface and subsurface layers (0–60 m) in June or July resulted in a clear seasonal variation of the sea-to-air iodine flux of the VOIs (high in summer or autumn and low in spring).     

Supernova Nucleosynthesis, Chemical Evolution, and Cosmic Supernova Rate

In the chemical evolution of the Galaxy, Type II supernovae (SNe II)have contributed to the early metal enrichment and later Type Iasupernovae (SNe Ia) have contributed to the delayed enrichment of Fe.In principle, hypothetical pre-galactic population III objects couldcause the earliest heavy element enrichment. Here we present our twonew findings. 1) The peculiar abundance pattern among iron peakelements (Cr, Mn, Co, and Fe) in the very metal poor can be reproducedwith SN II nucleosynthesis yields without invoking the contributionfrom Pop III objects. 2) The observed chemical evolution in the solarneighborhood is well reproduced with the metallicity dependentoccurrence of SNe Ia, where SNe Ia do not occur if the iron abundanceof the progenitors is as low as [Fe/H] ≲ -1. We make theprediction that the cosmic SN Ia rate drops at z ∼ 1-2 because ofthe low-iron abundance, which can be observed with the Next GenerationSpace Telescope. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Analytical methods for error propagation in planar space–time prisms

The space–time prism demarcates all locations in space–time that a mobile object or person can occupy during an episode of potential or unobserved movement. The prism is central to time geography as a measure of potential mobility and to mobile object databases as a measure of location possibilities given sampling error. This paper develops an analytical approach to assessing error propagation in space–time prisms and prism–prism intersections. We analyze the geometry of the prisms to derive a core set of geometric problems involving the intersection of circles and ellipses. Analytical error propagation techniques such as the Taylor linearization method based on the first-order partial derivatives are not available since explicit functions describing the intersections and their derivatives are unwieldy. However, since we have implicit functions describing prism geometry, we modify this approach using an implicit function theorem that provides the required first-order partials without the explicit expressions. We describe the general method as well as details for the two spatial dimensions case and provide example calculations.     

Three-Dimensional Subsurface Structure Model of Kansai International Airport by Integration of Borehole Data and Seismic Profiles

The three-dimensional subsurface structure model around Kansai International Airport (KIX) has been developed based on the geologically and geotechnically investigated results of a large amount of borehole data for estimation of subsidence. The model consists of the alternation of marine clay and coarse deposits. The many seismic surveys and borehole drillings were carried out around the KIX before the constructing the airport. The stratigraphy of the model was renewed by the KIX18-1, which was about 1,300 m long drilling core and was drilled near the 2nd runway of the KIX from 2006 to 2007. In this study, the subsurface geological model was revised by integration of renewed borehole data and seismic profiles to incorporate complex warping structure and heterogenic lateral variation.     

1.5 Ma以来黄土高原风尘堆积的岩石磁学记录与中更新世气候转型

通过对黄土高原中部朝那剖面黄土-古土壤序列系统的岩石磁学分析,建立了1.5Ma以来黄土高原高分辨率岩石磁学指标演化序列。岩石磁学记录表明本区1.5Ma以来以0.93和0.62Ma为界经历了3个不同的气候演化阶段。在1.5～O.93和0.62～0Ma期间各种磁学参数大致呈同步变化趋势,能较好地与深海氧同位素（MIS）曲线相对应,而在0.93～0.62Ma期间（相当于L9底到L6顶,MIS24-MISl6）,尽管磁化率、饱和剩磁强度（Mr）、饱和磁化强度（Ms）与剩磁矫顽力（Bcr）、矫顽力（Bc）曲线的峰谷能与MIS的峰谷相对比,但该阶段的磁学参数变化幅度和形式明显不同于1.5～0.93和0.62Ma以来的两个演化阶段。磁化率、Mr和Ms在0.93Ma突然降低,此后变幅很小,反映夏季风较弱且相对稳定,一直维持到0.62Ma前后。在0.9Ma前后Bc、Bcr突然增大,可能反映了冬季风突然增强,然后宽幅波动下降。这种变化可能是黄土高原风尘堆积对中更新世气候转型事件的响应。黄土高原岩石磁学记录的中更新世气候转型事件发生于0.93Ma,结束于0.62Ma。造成这次气候转型事件的原因除了与全球冰量和太阳辐射变化有关之外,还可能与中更新世青藏高原急剧隆升而激发的亚洲内陆干旱化加剧,从而导致亚洲内陆沙漠的形成与扩张有关。     

Mesoscale Eddies Observed by TOLEX-ADCP and TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter in the Kuroshio Recirculation Region South of Japan

Mesoscale eddies in the Kuroshio recirculation region south of Japan have been investigated by using surface current data measured by an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) installed on a regular ferry shuttling between Tokyo and Chichijima, Bonin Islands, and sea surface height anomaly derived from the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter. Many cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies were observed in the region. Spatial and temporal scales of the eddies were determined by lag-correlation analyses in space and time. The eddies are circular in shape with a diameter of 500 km and a temporal scale of 80 days. Typical maximum surface velocity and sea surface height anomaly associated with the eddies are 15–20 cm s^–1 and 15 cm, respectively. The frequency of occurrence, temporal and spatial scales, and intensity are all nearly the same for the cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies, which are considered to be successive wave-like disturbances rather than solitary eddies. Phase speed of westward propagation of the eddies is estimated as 6.8 cm s^–1, which is faster than a theoretical estimate based on the baroclinic first-mode Rossby wave with or without a mean current. The spatial distribution of sea surface height variations suggests that these eddies may be generated in the Kuroshio Extension region and propagate westward in the Kuroshio recirculation region, though further studies are needed to clarify the generation processes.     

Study of Water Motion at the Dissolved Oxygen Minimum Layer and Local Oxygen Consumption Rate from the Lagrangian Viewpoint

By using the Euler-Lagrangian method, we examine water movements within the layer of minimum oxygen concentration and estimate local oxygen consumption rates for 15 regions of the global ocean. To do this, a number of labeled particles (which represent water parcels) are deployed at the center of a grid with 15 depth levels and tracked backward in time for 50 years in a three-dimensional velocity field. We assume that a particle picks up oxygen when it encounters the point of maximum oxygen concentration along the 50 years segment of its path. We introduce a contribution rate from waters distributed throughout the global ocean to the oxygen concentration of a local layer under consideration. Water parcels which are assumed to pick up oxygen within the oxygen minimum layer of an oceanic region under consideration make a very small contribution to the overall oxygen concentration of this layer. In addition, these parcels move out of the layer and water parcels from the upper layers take their place. The averaged Lagrangian local oxygen consumption rate is 0.033 ml/l/yr for the depth of the oxygen minimum layer, 0.20 ml/l/yr at 100 m depth (euphotic layer), 0.043 ml/l/yr for layers from 150 m to 800 m depth and 0.012 ml/l/yr for deep layers from 800 m to 3000 m. The present Lagrangian numerical experiment produces a maximum difference between observed and calculated concentrations of oxygen and, therefore, a maximum oxygen consumption rate. Although the present method has an ambiguity as to how oxygen is picked up, we nevertheless were able to identify regions in which the water parcels pick up oxygen of maximum concentration. We found that the South Equatorial Current (SEC) transports oxygen of higher concentration to the middle latitude regions of both the North Atlantic and the North Pacific across the equator.     

Observational Study on the Downward Solar Radiation at the Sea Surface in the Western Pacific

In situ observation of downward solar radiation in the Western Pacific were carried out with voluntary merchant ships for five years from autumn 1990 through autumn 1995. Daily means of the short wave radiation were computed from the observed solar radiation. Then, the effects of shadows of the ship's superstructures on the observed radiation were corrected if needed. A 5-year average of short wave radiation along the main sea-lanes in the Western Pacific was calculated based on the observed daily mean solar radiation. Maximum values of 270–280 Wm^–2 are found around 15°–20°N in May and June, while those of 290 Wm^–2 are observed south of 18°S in November and December along the lanes. Small annual variations are found in the equatorial region. Annual mean values at the equator are about 230 Wm^–2 between New Guinea and Indonesia, and 200 Wm^–2 east of New Guinea. The 5-year average of short wave radiation was compared with the climatologies given in previous studies. We have concluded that some of results of previous studies are significantly underestimated.