Integrated Analysis of Physical and Biological Pan-Arctic Change

We investigate the recent large changes that have occurred in the Arctic over the period of 1965–1995 through examination of 86 regionally-dispersed time series representing seven data types: climate indices, atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial, sea ice, fisheries, and other biological data. To our knowledge, this is the first semi-quantitative analysis of Arctic data that spans multiple disciplines and geographic regions. Although visual inspection and Principal Component Analysis of the data collection indicate that Arctic change is complex, three patterns are evident. The temporal pattern of change calculated as the first Principal Component (PC1), representing 23% of the variance, has a single regime-like shift near 1989 based on a large number of time series, which include projections from a strong stratospheric vortex in spring, the Arctic Oscillation, sea ice declines in several regions, and changes in selected mammal, bird, and fish populations. The pattern based on the second Principal Component (PC2) shows interdecadal variability over the Arctic Ocean Basin north of 70° N; this variability is observed in surface wind fields, sea ice, and ocean circulation, with the most recent shift near 1989. Contributions to PC1 cover a larger geographic area than PC2, and are consistent with a recent amplification of the interdecadal mode due to polar processes such as increased incidence of cold stratospheric temperature anomalies or internal feedbacks. Most land processes – such as snowcover, greenness, Siberian runoff, permafrost temperatures – and certain subarctic sea ice records show a third pattern of a linear trend over the 30-year interval, which is qualitatively different than either PC1 or PC2. These variables are from lower latitudes and often integrate the atmospheric or oceanographic influence over several seasons including summer. That more than half of the data collection projects strongly onto one of the three patterns, suggests that the Arctic is responding as a coherent system over the previous three decades. However, no single index or class of observations exclusively tracks change in the Arctic, a conclusion that emerges from a multivariate analysis.     

Geochemistry and Evolution of Subcontinental Lithospheric Mantle in Central Europe: Evidence from Peridotite Xenoliths of the Kozakov Volcano, Czech Republic

Neogene basanite lavas of Kozákov volcano, located alongthe Lusatian fault in the northeastern Czech Republic, containabundant anhydrous spinel lherzolite xenoliths that providean exceptionally continuous sampling of the upper two-thirdsof central European lithospheric mantle. The xenoliths yielda range of two-pyroxene equilibration temperatures from 680°Cto 1070°C, and are estimated to originate from depths of32–70 km, based on a tectonothermal model for basalticunderplating associated with Neogene rifting. The sub-Kozákovmantle is layered, consisting of an equigranular upper layer(32–43 km), a protogranular intermediate layer that containsspinel–pyroxene symplectites after garnet (43–67km), and an equigranular lower layer (67–70 km). Negativecorrelations of wt % TiO₂, Al₂O₃, and CaO with MgO and clinopyroxenemode with Cr-number in the lherzolites record the effects ofpartial fusion and melt extraction; Y and Yb contents of clinopyroxeneand the Cr-number in spinel indicate 5 to 15% partial melting.Subsequent metasomatism of a depleted lherzolite protolith,probably by a silicate melt, produced enrichments in the largeion lithophile elements, light rare earth elements and highfield strength elements, and positive anomalies in primitivemantle normalized trace element patterns for P, Zr, and Hf.Although there are slight geochemical discontinuities at theboundaries between the three textural layers of mantle, theretends to be an overall decrease in the degree of depletion withdepth, accompanied by a decrease in the magnitude of metasomatism.Clinopyroxene separates from the intermediate protogranularlayer and the lower equigranular layer yield ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd valuesof 0·51287–0·51307 (_Nd = +4·6 to+8·4) and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values of 0·70328–0·70339.Such values are intermediate with respect to the Nd–Srisotopic array defined by anhydrous spinel peridotite xenolithsfrom central Europe and are similar to those associated withthe present-day low-velocity anomaly in the upper mantle beneathEurope. The geochemical characteristics of the central Europeanlithospheric mantle reflect a complex evolution related to Devonianto Early Carboniferous plate convergence, accretion, and crustalthickening, Late Carboniferous to Permian extension and gravitationalcollapse, and Neogene rifting, lithospheric thinning, and magmatism. KEY WORDS: xenoliths; lithospheric mantle; REE–LILE–HFSE; Sr–Nd isotopes; Bohemian Massif     

The influence of underwater data transmission sounds on the displacement behaviour of captive harbour seals (Phoca vitulina)

To prevent grounding of ships and collisions between ships in shallow coastal waters, an underwater data collection and communication network (ACME) using underwater sounds to encode and transmit data is currently under development. Marine mammals might be affected by ACME sounds since they may use sound of a similar frequency (around 12 kHz) for communication, orientation, and prey location. If marine mammals tend to avoid the vicinity of the acoustic transmitters, they may be kept away from ecologically important areas by ACME sounds. One marine mammal species that may be affected in the North Sea is the harbour seal (Phoca vitulina). No information is available on the effects of ACME-like sounds on harbour seals, so this study was carried out as part of an environmental impact assessment program. Nine captive harbour seals were subjected to four sound types, three of which may be used in the underwater acoustic data communication network. The effect of each sound was judged by comparing the animals' location in a pool during test periods to that during baseline periods, during which no sound was produced. Each of the four sounds could be made into a deterrent by increasing its amplitude. The seals reacted by swimming away from the sound source. The sound pressure level (SPL) at the acoustic discomfort threshold was established for each of the four sounds. The acoustic discomfort threshold is defined as the boundary between the areas that the animals generally occupied during the transmission of the sounds and the areas that they generally did not enter during transmission. The SPLs at the acoustic discomfort thresholds were similar for each of the sounds (107 dB re 1 microPa). Based on this discomfort threshold SPL, discomfort zones at sea for several source levels (130-180 dB re 1 microPa) of the sounds were calculated, using a guideline sound propagation model for shallow water. The discomfort zone is defined as the area around a sound source that harbour seals are expected to avoid. The definition of the discomfort zone is based on behavioural discomfort, and does not necessarily coincide with the physical discomfort zone. Based on these results, source levels can be selected that have an acceptable effect on harbour seals in particular areas. The discomfort zone of a communication sound depends on the sound, the source level, and the propagation characteristics of the area in which the sound system is operational. The source level of the communication system should be adapted to each area (taking into account the width of a sea arm, the local sound propagation, and the importance of an area to the affected species). The discomfort zone should not coincide with ecologically important areas (for instance resting, breeding, suckling, and feeding areas), or routes between these areas.     

Variability of Sea-Ice Extent in Baffin Bay over the Last Millennium

Comparison of an ice core glaciochemical time-series developed from thePenny Ice Cap (PIC), Baffin Island and monthly sea-ice extent reveals astatisticallysignificant inverse relationship between changes in Baffin Bay spring sea-iceextent andPenny Ice Cap sea-salt concentrations for the period 1901–1990 AD.Empiricalorthogonal function analysis demonstrates the joint behavior between changesin PICsea-salt concentrations, sea-ice extent, and changes in North Atlanticatmosphericcirculation. Our results suggest that sea-salt concentrations in snowpreserved on thePIC reflect local to regional springtime sea-ice coverage. The PIC sea-saltrecord/sea-ice relationship is further supported by decadal and century scalecomparisonwith other paleoclimate records of eastern Arctic climate change over the last700 years. Our sea-salt record suggests that, while the turn of the century wascharacterized bygenerally milder sea-ice conditions in Baffin Bay, the last few decades ofsea-ice extentlie within Little Ice Age variability and correspond to instrumental recordsof lowertemperatures in the Eastern Canadian Arctic over the past three decades.     

Hierarchical spatial modeling of the presence of Chagas disease insect vectors in Argentina. A comparative approach

We modeled the spatial distribution of the most important Chagas disease vectors in Argentina, in order to obtain a predictive mapping method for the probability of presence of the vector species. We analyzed both the binary variable of presence-absence of Chagas disease and the vector species richness in Argentina, in combination with climatic and topographical covariates associated to the region of interest. We used several statistical techniques to produce distribution maps of presence–absence for the different insect species as well as species richness, using a hierarchical Bayesian framework within the context of multivariate geostatistical modeling. Our results show that the inclusion of covariates improves the quality of the fitted models, and that there is spatial interaction between neighboring cells/pixels, so mapping methods used in the past, which assumed spatial independence, are not adequate as they provide unreliable results.     

Potential protonation sites in the Al<Subscript>2</Subscript>SiO<Subscript>5</Subscript> polymorphs based on polarized FTIR spectroscopy and properties of the electron density distribution

Potential protonation sites for, kyanite, sillimanite, and andalusite, located in a mapping of the (3, −3) critical points displayed by their L(r) = −∇²ρ(r) distributions, are compared with polarized single-crystal FTIR spectra of kyanite and sillimanite determined earlier and with andalusite measured in this study. For andalusite, seven peaks were observed when the electric vector, E, is parallel to [100]: four intense ones at 3,440, 3,460, 3,526, and 3,597 cm⁻¹ and three weaker ones at 3,480, 3,520, and 3,653 cm⁻¹. Six peaks, three intense ones at 3,440, 3,460, and 3,526 cm⁻¹ and three weaker ones at 3,480, 3,520, and 3,653 cm⁻¹ when E parallels [010]. No peaks were observed when E is parallel to [001]. The concentration of water in andalusite varies between 110 and 168 ppm by weight % H₂O. Polarized FTIR spectra indicate that the OH vector is parallel to (001) in andalusite and sillimanite and in kyanite. Examination of the L(r) (3, −3) critical points in comparison with the polarized FTIR indicates that H prefers to bond to the oxygen atoms O1 and O2 in andalusite and O2 and O4 in sillimanite which correspond to the underbonded oxygen atoms and those with the largest L(r) maxima. In kyanite, comparison of the FTIR spectrum and the critical points indicates that H will preferentially bond to the two 4-coordinated O2 and O6 atoms.     

Three Spaces of Spatial Cognition

As we move about and interact in the world, we keep track of different spaces, among them the space of navigation, the space immediately around the body, and the space of the body. We review research showing that these spaces are conceptualized differently. Knowledge of the space of navigation is systematically distorted. For example, people mentally rotate roads and land masses to greater correspondence with global reference frames, they mentally align roads and land masses, they overestimate distances near the viewpoint relative to those far from it. These and other distortions indicate that the space of navigation is schematized to elements and spatial relations relative to reference frames and perspective. The space around the body is organized into a mental framework consisting of extensions of the major axes of the body. Times to report objects around the body suggest that the relative accessibility of the axes depends on their perceptual and functional properties and the relation of the body to the world. Finally, times to verify named or depicted body parts indicate that body schemas depend on perceptual and functional significance. Thus, these spaces (and they are not the only ones important to human interaction) differ from one another and are not conceptualized as Euclidean. Rather they are schematized into elements and spatial relations that reflect perceptual and conceptual significance.     

Linking hydrological variations at local scales to regional climate teleconnection patterns

Climate patterns over preceding years affect seasonal water and moisture conditions. The linkage between regional climate and local hydrology is challenging due to scale differences, both spatially and temporally. In this study, variance, correlation, and singular spectrum analyses were conducted to identify multiple hydroclimatic phases during which climate teleconnection patterns were related to hydrology of a small headwater basin in Idaho, USA. Combined field observations and simulations from a physically based hydrological model were used for this purpose. Results showed statistically significant relations between climate teleconnection patterns and hydrological fluxes in the basin, and climate indices explained up to 58% of hydrological variations. Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific North America (PNA) patterns affected mountain hydrology, in that order, by decreasing annual runoff and rain on snow (ROS) runoff by 43% and 26% during a positive phase of NAO and 25% and 9% during a positive phase of PNA. AAO showed a significant association with the rainfall-to-precipitation ratio and explained 49% of its interannual variation. The runoff response was affected by the phase of climate variability indices and the legacy of past atmospheric conditions. Specifically, a switch in the phase of the teleconnection patterns of NAO and PNA caused a transition from wet to dry conditions in the basin. Positive AAO showed no relation with peak snow water equivalent and ROS runoff in the same year, but AAO in the preceding year explained 24 and 25% (p < 0.05) of their variations, suggesting that the past atmospheric patterns are equally important as the present conditions in affecting local hydrology. Areas sheltered from the wind and acted as a source for snow transport showed the lowest (40% below normal) ROS runoff generation, which was associated with positive NAO that explained 33% (p < 0.01) of its variation. The findings of this research highlighted the importance of hydroclimatic phases and multiple year variations that must be considered in hydrological forecasts, climate projections, and water resources planning.