基于随机森林模型的东北地区收缩城市分布格局及影响因素研究

基于2005-2009年、2010-2014年、2015-2019年和2005-2019年人口变化数据,判定东北地区收缩城市,分析其空间分布格局,并对比运用多元线性回归方法和随机森林回归方法探索东北地区收缩城市形成的影响因素及其影响作用.结果 表明:①空间上,东北地区的收缩城市主要分布在以长白山、三江平原、小兴安岭和大...     

西北内陆盆地浅层地下水温度场及动态类型:以酒泉东盆地为例

温度是地下水的固有属性,地下水温度场和动态特征是地下水流系统的外在表现。为揭示地下水开采等人类活动影响下西北内陆盆地浅层地下水温度场特征与地下水流系统的关系,基于多点位、长序列、高精度的地下水温度监测数据,在酒泉东盆地开展了地下水温度场及动态特征研究。结果表明：酒泉东盆地浅层地下水温度9.33～20.77℃不等,平均水温为13.54℃,自地下水补给区至排泄区,沿地下水径流方向,浅层地下水温度逐渐升高;循环深度相近的不同地下水流系统对比表明,浅层地下水温度与地下水动力条件呈负相关,地表水入渗补给大、水动力条件强的水流系统地下水平均温度低,入渗补给小、水动力条件弱的地下水平均温度高;浅层地下水温度动态受自然地下水循环和地下水开采等人类活动共同影响,从山前地下水补给区到中游绿洲区再到下游排泄区,浅部地下水温度动态可划分为4种基本类型,依次分别为河流补给型、水温稳定型、开采相关型、正弦波动型。     

地体的单向和多向聚合与离散

地体构造是对板块构造理论的发展和补充,它受控于全球板块动力学体系,因此不能将地体与板块割裂开来去研究。其相对于刚性板块的小规模、多样性和广泛性,对了解全球板块的离散和大陆的拼贴增生过程具有十分重要意义。地体构造无处不在,它不仅存在于中、新生代陆缘造山带中,也存在于古老造山带中,一些古老的克拉通实际上也是由不同的地体拼合而成的。地体的运动包括聚合、离散和走滑三种方式,地体的增生作用是聚合的主要表现形式,并导致大陆的生长扩大,而地体的离散作用联合增生作用,决定了现代大陆的轮廓。分析地体聚合和离散的过程,可以发现有两种不同的模式,即单向聚合-离散和多向聚合-离散,它们对应了不同的地球动力学过程。地体的单向聚合-离散可以由大洋的俯冲增生或大陆汇聚碰撞而导致,但在这个过程中,大洋向大陆的单向俯冲起到了主导作用。地体的多向离散和聚合与岩石圈的裂解与汇聚有密切联系,从全球构造演化的格局来看,岩石圈裂解与汇聚的方向本身具有多向性,这就导致了一些微陆块地体与具洋壳性质的地体一同发生多向离散和聚合。地体的单向离散和聚合会因构造变动而转变为多向离散和聚合,俯冲板片回转与海沟后撤会导致俯冲带弯曲和俯冲方向的改...     

Using data‐driven methods to explore the predictability of surface soil moisture with FLUXNET site data

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable of land surface‐atmosphere interactions. Data‐driven methods have been used to predict SM, but the predictability of SM has not been well evaluated. This study investigated what variables and methods can be used to better predict SM for leading times of 7 days or longer with a global coverage of FLUXNET site data for the first time. Three machine‐learning models, that is, Bayesian linear regression, random forest, and gradient boosting regression tree, are used for the prediction. Variables including atmospheric forcing, surface soil temperature, time variables (year, day of year, and hour), the Fourier transformation of time variables, and lagged SM (7‐ to 14‐day lagged) were sequentially added into models. A framework with five experiments is designed for factorial exploration of SM predictability. A stepwise method was used to build the best models for each site. The performance of regression models became better when adding more explaining variables in most cases. The results showed that from 50 to 95% of variation of the best models can be explained. The important explaining variables are lagged surface SM, followed by day of year, year, soil temperature, and atmospheric forcing. The predictability of SM depends highly on SM memory characteristics and the persistence of seasonality. The effect of SM memory characteristics on SM prediction as an initial condition question has been widely discussed in this paper. Our results also provide an insight that mechanisms of seasonality effects on SM should be also paid more attention to.     

Assessing modern arboreal phytolith sensitivity to vegetation variations in temperate forest regions

To assess the reliability of arboreal phytoliths for differentiating vegetation types in temperate forest regions, we systematically analysed arboreal leaf phytoliths from 72 arboreal plants and 49 modern soils from three forest types in northeast China. The arboreal leaf phytolith production and morphotypes were highly variable between species. The arboreal leaf phytolith assemblages could clearly distinguish between broadleaf and coniferous species, but they were much less successful in differentiating broadleaved trees into subtaxa. Coniferous leaf morphotypes were successfully used to differentiate coniferous trees into families and subtaxa, especially in the Pinaceae. Two diagnostic broadleaved and six coniferous phytolith morphotypes were recognized within the modern soil beneath forest ecosystems. These arboreal phytoliths comprised up to 10–15% of the total soil phytoliths, and were dominated by coniferous types. Arboreal phytolith concentrations and phytolith assemblages in the soils fluctuated substantially amongst the three forest types. Soil arboreal phytolith assemblages were successfully used to differentiate samples from Larix mixed forest, broadleaf forest and Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. In addition, the arboreal index quantitatively distinguished the three forest types, with B/BE values <0.4 for Larix mixed forest samples, values from 0.4 to 0.6 for broadleaf forest samples, and values from 0.6 to 0.9 for P. koraiensis mixed forest. Thus, our surface soil arboreal phytolith assemblages and arboreal index are a useful reference for differentiating forest ecotypes, and they also provide reliable analogues for arboreal phytoliths from palaeoecological contexts in temperate forest regions.     

Dynamic response of road pavement resting on a layered poroelastic half‐space to a moving traffic load

This paper is dedicated to study the dynamic response of a thin‐plate resting on a layered poroelastic half‐space under a moving traffic load. Based on the dynamic poroelastic theory of Biot, the general solutions of the homogeneous poroelastic foundation are obtained by Fourier translation. By using the transmission and reflection matrices method in the frequency domain, the equivalent stiffness of the layered poroelastic half‐space is presented. Kirchhoff's hypotheses are applied to obtain the vertical displacement of the thin plate. By using the inverse Fourier transform, the time domain solution is obtained. As an example of three layers, the influences of the load velocity, the material properties of poroelastic layers, and the flexural rigidity of the plate on the response of the pavement system are examined. Analyses show that a soft intermediate layer results in the significant increase of vertical displacement of road pavement. Comparison with the existing work validates the present model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

国家地理信息系统发展战略和政策指导

主席先生、女士们、先生们: 经过一段时间的紧张筹备,由国家计委、国家科委、国家测绘局联合召开的地理信息系统发展战略研讨会今天开幕了,很高兴能参加今天的会议,希望与会的中外专家对中国地理信息系统的发展各抒已见,共商地理信息系统及其产业的发展大计。 人类面临的人口、资源、环境压力日益增大,如何协调自然与社会间的矛盾,以保障社会经济的可持续发展,已成为世界各国政府亟待解决的重大问题。     

一次突发性暴雨的机理分析及短期预报思考

2015年9月4日白天,天津出现突发性暴雨过程,利用多种观测资料对此次过程进行分析,结果表明:偏南气流与高压底部东北风相遇,在蓟州山区以南形成辐合,触发雷暴发展;雷暴形成后,回波形成"后向传播"机制,配合中低空的南风脉动,在天津北部形成南北向的"列车效应",导致北部强降水的发生;上游的高空槽降水在近地面形成冷池,其向东辐散气流与偏东风相遇,在降水区下游触发新的雷暴,使得雨带快速东移,且当辐散气流与偏东风相遇后,出现小尺度辐合性气旋式环流,导致下游强降水增幅;当高空槽降水云团主体移过城区后,在γ中尺度辐合流场作用下,触发小尺度对流云团的生成和发展,影响天津城区再次出现强降水。在短期预报过程中,预报员在大尺度模式环境场分析的基础上,对于中尺度模式仅参考了其降水预报,而忽略了对中尺度环境场的分析,分析表明,虽然中尺度模式对此次过程的降水时段预报存在偏差,但其中尺度环境场预报,可以为此次暴雨过程在短期时效内(24h)的预报订正提供参考。     

湖北三种地形下AQI特征及其与气象因子的关系

基于2015—2016年湖北省环境监测数据和气象资料,分析了3种地形下空气质量指数(AQI)特征及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明:湖北省年空气质量指数时空分布特征为山区低平原高,冬季高夏季低,日高峰值襄阳出现在中午,武汉和宜昌出现在23:00—24:00;与空气质量指数关系较显著的气象因子包括相对湿度、变温、变压、风、降水等,其中降水对污染物的沉降作用跟空气质量等级有关,污染程度越重,需要清洁空气的雨量越大,轻度以上污染时,需要中雨及以上降水才会产生有效清洁,当降水为微量(1mm以下)时,AQI反而会增长;受不同地形影响,不同城市污染天气输入路径不同,襄阳为北风、武汉西北风、宜昌多弱东风扰动,且襄阳大风速出现的频数较高,而宜昌以小风为主。     

1961-2015年陕西省不同等级降水事件变化特征

利用19612015年陕西省70个气象观测站的逐日降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、趋势分析及Mann Kendall等方法,分析了陕西省不同等级降水量、降水日数及降水强度的气候变化特征。结果表明：无论是降水量、降水日数,还是降水强度,均呈现出南多北少的分布特征,且随着降水级别的逐级增加,地区分布差异逐渐增大;整体上降水量和降水日数呈现出减少趋势,其中降水日数的下降趋势均非常显著,全省年均降水日数的气候倾向率达到了-3.83天·10a-1,通过了0.01的显著性检验,降水强度的增加趋势通过了0.05的显著性检验,每10 a全省年均降水强度增加0.15 mm·d-1;陕西降水量及降水日数的减少主要体现在春秋两季小雨及中雨的减少上,小雨降水强度在夏、秋两季的气候倾向率分别为0.05和0.04 mm·d-1·10a-1,其上升趋势分别通过了0.01和0.1的显著性检验,这是年均降水强度上升的主要原因;陕西年均降水量及降水日数自1984年出现了突变性下降,而降水强度的突变则出现在2004年,之后一直呈现持续的上升趋势。