Coastal management in the Persian Gulf region within the framework of the ROPME programme of action

Persian Gulf is a semi-enclosed sea located in the Middle East and is connected to oceans through the narrow 55-km Strait of Hormuz. The Persian Gulf holds an estimated 57–66% of the world's known reserves of oil. The occurrence of three major battles in the Gulf region during the past three decades has created an atmosphere of commotion and uncertainty. Because of its marine geology, geographical location, and geopolitical sensitivity, coastal management in the Gulf region cannot be considered independently of its vast oil and natural gas reserves and environmentally related matters. The Regional Organization for Protection of Marine Environment (ROPME) forum was established in Kuwait in 1979 and quickly ratified by seven new member states (Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates). Rapid growth of ROPME and shared coastal and marine environmental issues among littoral States have resulted in numerous successful plans laying the basis for future coastal management and development in the Persian Gulf region.Different plans were investigated to reach sustainable coastal management and environmental pollution prevention programmes in the Persian Gulf region and it was concluded that such plans could only be implemented when littoral states prioritize the management schemes in the Persian Gulf region and incorporate them into their own national legislation.Similar to many Regional Sea Programmes, ROPME has faced many drawbacks since its inception. Military conflicts, poor enforcement of protocols, lack of adequate coordination, disharmony among littoral states and lack of sufficient funding have put many coastal management programmes on hold.Demilitarization, enforcement of ROPME resolutions, and implementation of long-term economical growth planning are all part of an integrated coastal management programme that can bring about significant changes in the Persian Gulf area. Despite all existing differences and difficulties, many important tasks have been accomplished in the past two decades. Coastal management issues have been analyzed and well documented by ROPME. With the existing situation in the Gulf region, ROPME can effectively coordinate and implement the following tasks: monitor water quality and coastal habitat, develop and implement a comprehensive pollution prevention scheme, educate the public in terms of coastal preservation, train technical staff, put in place an effective pollution prevention and waste management programme, and establish the basis for an integrated regional coastal zone management plan.     

Arsenic contamination of groundwater: Mitigation strategies and policies

Contamination of groundwater by arsenic from natural geochemical sources is at present a most serious challenge in the planning of large-scale use of groundwater for drinking and other purposes. Recent improvements in detection limits of analytical instruments are allowing the correlation of health impacts such as cancer with large concentrations of arsenic in groundwater. However, there are at present no known large-scale technological solutions for the millions of people—mostly rural—who are potentially affected in developing countries. An overall framework of combating natural resource degradation is combined with case studies from Chile, Mexico, Bangladesh and elsewhere to arrive at a set of strategic recommendations for the global, national and local dimensions of the arsenic crisis. The main recommendations include: the need for flexibility in the elaboration of any arsenic mitigation strategy, the improvement and large-scale use of low-cost and participatory groundwater quality testing techniques, the need to maintain consistent use of key lessons learned worldwide in water supply and sanitation and to integrate arsenic as just one other factor in providing a sustainable water supply, and the following of distinct but communicable tracks between arsenic-related developments and enhanced, long-term, sustainable water supplies.

Natural hazards in Nordic Countries

Compared to many areas of the world, the human losses caused by natural hazards are smaller in Nordic countries. This is mainly due to the low population density in the exposed areas. However, the economic losses are significant and the geohazards picture varies among the countries. The predominant natural hazards in Nordic countries are floods, landslides, and, with the exception of Denmark, snow avalanche. Volcanoes and earthquakes are major geohazards in Iceland, and parts of Norway are susceptible to seismic activity. Slidetriggered tsunamis also represent a threat to parts of the coastal areas of Nordic countries and Greenland.     

Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data

In many regions, the absence of a landslide inventory hampers the production of susceptibility or hazard maps. Therefore, a method combining a procedure for sampling of landslide-affected and landslide-free grid cells from a limited landslide inventory and logistic regression modelling was tested for susceptibility mapping of slide- and flow-type landslides on a European scale. Landslide inventories were available for Norway, Campania (Italy), and the Barcelonnette Basin (France), and from each inventory, a random subsample was extracted. In addition, a landslide dataset was produced from the analysis of Google Earth images in combination with the extraction of landslide locations reported in scientific publications. Attention was paid to have a representative distribution of landslides over Europe. In total, the landslide-affected sample contained 1,340 landslides. Then a procedure to select landslide-free grid cells was designed taking account of the incompleteness of the landslide inventory and the high proportion of flat areas in Europe. Using stepwise logistic regression, a model including slope gradient, standard deviation of slope gradient, lithology, soil, and land cover type was calibrated. The classified susceptibility map produced from the model was then validated by visual comparison with national landslide inventory or susceptibility maps available from literature. A quantitative validation was only possible for Norway, Spain, and two regions in Italy. The first results are promising and suggest that, with regard to preparedness for and response to landslide disasters, the method can be used for urgently required landslide susceptibility mapping in regions where currently only sparse landslide inventory data are available.     

Global landslide and avalanche hotspots

Allocating resources for natural hazard risk management has high priority in development banks and international agencies working in developing countries. Global hazard and risk maps for landslides and avalanches were developed to identify the most exposed countries. Based on the global datasets of climate, lithology, earthquake activity, and topography, areas with the highest hazard, or “hotspots”, were identified. The applied model was based on classed values of all input data. The model output is a landslide and avalanche hazard index, which is globally scaled into nine levels. The model results were calibrated and validated in selected areas where good data on slide events exist. The results from the landslide and avalanche hazard model together with global population data were then used as input for the risk assessment. Regions with the highest risk can be found in Colombia, Tajikistan, India, and Nepal where the estimated number of people killed per year per 100 km² was found to be greater than one. The model made a reasonable prediction of the landslide hazard in 240 of 249 countries. More and better input data could improve the model further. Future work will focus on selected areas to study the applicability of the model on national and regional scales.     

Submarine debris flow impact on pipelines — Part I: Experimental investigation

Estimating the impact forces exerted by a submarine debris flow on a pipeline is a challenge, and there is room for considerably more work to advance the state of the art. To this end, an experimental program was performed to investigate the impact on two pipeline installation scenarios: 1) suspended pipeline and 2) laid-on-seafloor pipeline. The results and observations from the experimental investigation are discussed. The definition of Reynolds number was modified for non-Newtonian fluids and an ad hoc method was developed to estimate the drag force exerted by an impact perpendicular to the pipe axis. The method may be used in prototype situations to estimate the drag force from submarine debris flow impact on pipelines. The experimental program was complemented by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analyses, the details of which are discussed in the accompanying paper.     

Hazard analysis of seismic submarine slope instability

To assess the risk associated with a submarine landslide, one must estimate the probability of slope failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the probability of earthquake-induced submarine slope failure (hazard) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, ground response analyses and advanced laboratory tests. The outcomes from these analyses are treated in a probabilistic framework, with analytical simulations using mathematical techniques such as the first-order reliability method, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian updating. Fragility curves of slope failure during the earthquake (co-seismic) and after the earthquake (post-seismic) were developed in this study, and were shown to provide a clear and well-organized procedure to estimate the annual failure probability of a submarine slope under earthquake loading.     

Interpretation of Pumping Tests in Heterogeneous Aquifers with Constant Head Boundary

This paper investigates the impact of heterogeneity of the transmissivity field on the interpretation of steady-state pumping test data from aquifer systems delimited by constant head boundaries such as aquifers adjacent to lakes or rivers. Spatially variable transmissivity fields are randomly generated and used to simulate the drawdown due to a pumping well located at different distances from a constant head boundary. The steady-state drawdown simulated at different observation wells are then interpreted using the Hantush method (Hantush 1959). The numerical simulations show that, in contrast to the case of infinite aquifer domains, the interpreted transmissivity varies depending on well locations and the separation distance between pumping well and boundary relative to the correlation length. The ensemble-averaged estimated transmissivity varies between the geometric mean and the arithmetic mean, and can even exceed the arithmetic mean in a narrow domain adjacent to the boundary. It approaches the geometric mean of the underlying transmissivity field only if the distance between the pumping well is more than 20 times the characteristic length of the transmissivity field.