Interaction between a circular opening and fractures originating from its boundary in a piecewise homogeneous plane

The complex variables boundary element method (CVBEM) is used to study interaction between a circular opening and fractures originating from its boundary in a piecewise homogeneous plane. A new complex hypersingular equation for piecewise homogeneous media with a circular opening is obtained. The equation is solved using the CVBEM technique with circular and straight boundary elements and polynomial approximations (with square root asymptotics for crack tip elements) for the unknown functions. The algorithm is verified through comparison with known semi‐analytical and numerical solutions that involve interaction between a circular opening and specific systems of cracks or other openings. New numerical results concerning the interaction of the circular opening with the cracks and circular inclusions are presented. The method is applied to an important problem in the petroleum industry: modelling propagation of hydraulic fractures in the vicinity of a borehole. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India

The study of climate changes in India and search for robust evidences are issues of concern specially when it is known that poor people are very vulnerable to climate changes. Due to the vast size of India and its complex geography, climate in this part of the globe has large spatial and temporal variations. Important weather events affecting India are floods and droughts, monsoon depressions and cyclones, heat waves, cold waves, prolonged fog and snowfall. Results of this comprehensive study based on observed data and model reanalyzed fields indicate that in the last century, the atmospheric surface temperature in India has enhanced by about 1 and 1.1°C during winter and post-monsoon months respectively. Also decrease in the minimum temperature during summer monsoon and its increase during post-monsoon months have created a large difference of about 0.8°C in the seasonal temperature anomalies which may bring about seasonal asymmetry and hence changes in atmospheric circulation. Opposite phases of increase and decrease in the minimum temperatures in the southern and northern regions of India respectively have been noticed in the interannual variability. In north India, the minimum temperature shows sharp decrease of its magnitude between 1955 and 1972 and then sharp increase till date. But in south India, the minimum temperature has a steady increase. The sea surface temperatures (SST) of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal also show increasing trend. Observations indicate occurrence of more extreme temperature events in the east coast of India in the recent past. During summer monsoon months, there is a decreasing (increasing) trend in the frequency of depressions (low pressure areas). In the last century the frequency of occurrence of cyclonic storms shows increasing trend in the month of November. In addition there is increase in the number of severe cyclonic storms crossing Indian Coast. Analysis of rainfall amount during different seasons indicate decreasing tendency in the summer monsoon rainfall over Indian landmass and increasing trend in the rainfall during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months.     

Assessment of the statistical significance of global changes in the annual river runoff in XXI century due to possible anthropogenic warming of climate

A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resultant changes of global temperatures; mistakes in estimates of average long-term observed values of the runoff depths for the “control” period. Global maps of a “significance index” of forecasted changes in the runoff depths (estimations of changes in the annual runoff depths divided by mean square root values of errors of these estimations) for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 are presented. It is shown that the most significant global changes of the runoff depths (growth in the north of Eastern Siberia, of the Russian Far East, of North America, falling in the “Greater Mediterranean Region”) are predicted for the second quarter of 21st century. Further changes of the runoff amplify only in the Amazon basin (reduction, by 2075). Almost everywhere else (including almost all European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, south of Eastern Siberia and of the Far East) the significance of changes in the runoff depths during 21st century is negligible.     

Rockfall Hazard Analysis From Discrete Fracture Network Modelling with Finite Persistence Discontinuities

Developing an accurate representation of the rock mass fabric is a key element in rock fall hazard analysis. The orientation, persistence and density of fractures control the volume and shape of unstable blocks or compartments. In this study, the discrete fracture modelling technique and digital photogrammetry were used to accurately depict the fabric. A volume distribution of unstable blocks was derived combining polyhedral modelling and kinematic analyses. For each block size, probabilities of failure and probabilities of propagation were calculated. A complete energy distribution was obtained by considering, for each block size, its occurrence in the rock mass, its probability of falling, its probability to reach a given location, and the resulting distribution of energies at each location. This distribution was then used with an energy–frequency diagram to assess the hazard.     

Searches for very high energy gamma rays from blazars with CANGAROO-III telescope in 2005-2009

We have searched for very high energy (VHE) gamma rays from four blazars using the CANGAROO-III imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope. We report the results of the observations of H 2356-309, PKS 2155-304, PKS 0537-441, and 3C 279, performed from 2005 to 2009, applying a new analysis to suppress the effects of the position dependence of Cherenkov images in the field of view. No significant VHE gamma ray emission was detected from any of the four blazars. The GeV gamma-ray spectra of these objects were obtained by analyzing Fermi/LAT archival data. Wide range (radio to VHE gamma-ray bands) spectral energy distributions (SEDs) including CANGAROO-III upper limits, GeV gamma-ray spectra, and archival data, even though they are non-simultaneous, are discussed using a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model in combination with a external Compton (EC) radiation. The HBLs (H 2356-309 and PKS 2155-304) can be explained by a simple SSC model, and PKS 0537-441 and 3C 279 are well modeled by a combination of SSC and EC model. We find a consistency with the blazar sequence in terms of strength of magnetic field and component size.     

On determining the noon polar cap boundary from SuperDARN HF radar backscatter characteristics

Previous work has shown that ionospheric HF radar backscatter in the noon sector can be used to locate the footprint of the magnetospheric cusp particle precipitation. This has enabled the radar data to be used as a proxy for the location of the polar cap boundary, and hence measure the flow of plasma across it to derive the reconnection electric field in the ionosphere. This work used only single radar data sets with a field of view limited to 2 h of local time. In this case study using four of the SuperDARN radars, we examine the boundary determined over 6 h of magnetic local time around the noon sector and its relationship to the convection pattern. The variation with longitude of the latitude of the radar scatter with cusp characteristics shows a bay-like feature. It is shown that this feature is shaped by the variation with longitude of the poleward flow component of the ionospheric plasma and may be understood in terms of cusp ion time-of-flight effects. Using this interpretation, we derive the time-of-flight of the cusp ions and find that it is consistent with approximately 1 keV ions injected from a subsolar reconnection site. A method for deriving a more accurate estimate of the location of the open-closed field line boundary from HF radar data is described.     

Slump debris flows in the Akovolwo Mountains area of Benue State,Nigeria

In September 1979, rain-induced complex landslides occurred in two separate localities along the slopes of the Akovolwo Mountains near Jato-Aka in the Kwande Local Government area of Benue State, Nigeria.The two movements developed on bedrock slopes covered by a veneer of colluvium and (or) residuum no more than 1.5 to 2m deep. Each started as a slump and graduated into a debris flow. The slump, extending downhill a short distance away from the head scarp, had been reconstituted into a debris flow as the initial movement (sliding movement) of the soil mass caused remoulding of the saturated moving mass into viscous debris-laden mud. The resulting mass moved partly along a pre-existing mountain stream channel and partly along a fresh channel it cleared in the savanna forest. At the break of slope, the mass of boulders was dumped and a trail of smaller fragments littered the channels towards the Katsina-Ala River.     

Persistent organic pollutants and histological lesions in Mayan catfish Ariopsis assimilis from the Bay of Chetumal, Mexico

Livers of catfish (Ariopsis assimilis) from the Bay of Chetumal were analyzed for organochlorine compounds and hydrocarbons as part of a study to diagnose the environmental health of the Bay after a catfish mass mortality that occurred in 1996. The presence of histological lesions in several organs of the fish as result of chemical exposure was also evaluated. The concentrations of organic pollutants found in the Bay may be considered high if compared to the levels reported for sites affected by chemical pollution. High prevalences of cellular alteration histopathologies were found in liver, including hepatic tumors. The presence of some lesions may be related statistically to environmental pollution in the Bay, specially with chlorinated compounds.     

Numerical studies of the transport of solar protons in interplanetary space

Numerical solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation governing the transport of solar protons are obtained using the Crank-Nicholson technique with the diffusion coefficient represented by K_r=K₀r^b where r is radial distance from the Sun and b can take on positive or negative values. As b ranges from +1 to ?3, the time to the observation of peak flux decreases by a factor of 5 for 1 MeV protons when $\text{V}\text{K}{}_0\text{=}\text{3 AU}{}^{\mathrm{b?1}}$ where V is the solar wind speed. The time to peak flux is found to be very insensitive to assumptions concerning the solar and outer scattering boundary conditions and the presence of exponential time decay in the flux does not depend on the existence of an outer boundary. At $\text{V}\text{K}{}_0\text{? 15 AU}{}^{\mathrm{b?1}}$, 1 MeV particles come from the Sun by an almost entirely convective process and suffer large adiabatic deceleration at b?0 but for b=+1, large Fermi acceleration is possible at all reasonable $\text{V}\text{K}{}_0$ values. Implications of this result for the calculation and measurement of particle diffusion coefficients is discussed. At $\text{b?0}$, the pure diffusion approximation to transport overestimates by a factor 2 or more the time to peak flux but as b becomes more negative, the additional effects of convection and energy loss become less important.