The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Rock salt mass in the Paleoproterozoic sequence of the Onega trough in Karelia (from the Onega parametric well data)

A thick (200 m) rock salt mass covering Late Archean granitoids was exposed for the first time in the Early Proterozoic volcanogenic-sedimentary formations in the Onega trough of the east Baltic Shield by the Onega parametric well. The mineral composition of salts, their geochemical features, and the isotopic composition of carbonate carbon and oxygen have been studied. After fluid inclusions present in salts, their metamorphism temperature and isotopic composition of helium and argon were determined. The obtained results give evidence of the fact that rock salts and magnesites associated with them were formed in an evaporate basin with participation of deep crustal processes. The age of the underlying granitoids (2.716 ± 9 Ma) is determined using the Pb—Pb method.     

Focusing and spatial resolution of electromagnetic three-coil sounders

Doklady Earth Sciences - Distribution density functions for the sensitivity of a three-coil sounder are constructed as the weighted mean rock volume between the in-phase surfaces of running...     

Mantle(?) xenoliths in the carbonatites of northern Transbaikalia

The composition and nature of high-Cr minerals in lithic clasts from the carbonatites of the Veseloe occurrence, northern Transbaikalia, were considered. In order to determine their source, the Cr-bearing phases were compared with chromite, magnetite, and rutile from ultrabasic rocks, mantle xenoliths, and eclogites. It was suggested that the xenoclasts studied were formed at great depths, whereas the carbonatites were directly derived from the mantle rather than formed by the crustal differentiation of a silicate-carbonate melt.     

Meteorological excitation of the annual polar motion

Summary. Numerous studies have indicated that the annual term in the polar motion cannot be explained in any detail by meteorological/hydrological excitation and no reasonable alternative excitations have been put forward. Part of the problem has been that the hydrostatic adjustment of the oceans to the atmospheric pressure changes has traditionally been computed using the inverse barometer approach. This approach does not properly model the gravitational interaction between the atmosphere and oceans, and the inverse barometer theory is modified in this paper to account for this properly. The information necessary to compute the ocean tide and polar excitation caused by any change in the atmospheric pressure pattern is presented. The results of the application of this theory to two global atmospheric pressure data sets are examined and compared to results of other workers.
It is concluded that the atmosphere is observed well enough to answer the question of the annual excitation of polar motion and it is argued that the ground water excitation is the component with the largest error and remains the chief obstacle to the successful solution of this problem.