Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.     

Model study of the effect of the main ionospheric trough on oblique HF radiowave propagation

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of the main ionospheric trough location on the form of oblique sounding ionograms on the Murmansk-St. Petersburg subauroral radio path. Using a mathematical model of the high-latitude ionosphere, we have calculated four different distributions of electron density along the radio path. One of the distributions has been obtained when the trough is absent, and the remaining three distributions contain troughs of approximately identical depth and width but located at different distances from the ends of the radio path. Using the program of two-dimensional ray tracing, we numerically synthesized oblique-incidence ionograms for each of the four obtained distributions of electron density. The calculations have shown that the location of the main ionospheric trough affects considerably the shape of oblique-incidence ionograms.     

Model of a strong volcanic blast and a method of estimating the mass ejected

A hydrodynamic model of a strong volcanic blast associated with large (caldera-forming) ash–gas-flow eruptions is presented. We show that the mass erupted from a vent influences considerably the damping of the shock wave. If the ejected mass flux is constant, the shock amplitude as a function of distance will decrease slower (in accordance with the inverse 4/3 power law) than that of an atomic explosion (the inverse cube power law). From the modelling, we extract a relation connecting the effective energy of a blast with the mass ejected during the blast phase. The mass released during the largest explosion of the 1883 eruption of Krakatau, and the lateral blast energy at Mount St. Helens on 1980 May 18 are estimated on the basis of the equation obtained.     

Newtontoppen granitoid rocks, their geology, chemistry and Rb-Sr age

A post-tectonic Caledonian granite in southern Ny Friesland has been fully mapped and the following new names are proposed: the Chydeniusbreen granitoid suite, consisting of the Raudberget granitoid body in the north; the Newtontoppen granitoid body in the middle; and the Ekkoknausane granitoid body in the south
The contact relationships, internal structures and distribution of various rock types infer an asymmetric lopolith or a harpolith-like body, a large sickle-shaped intrusion stretched in the direction of general tectonic transport, for the Newtontoppen granitoid body.
Seven rock types are described in the Newtontoppen granitoid and four emplacement stages are recognised. The major rock types seem to have an alkali-calcic to alkalic bulk rock chemistry and show a transition between I- and S-type granite derived from anatectic melting of various protoliths under relatively high temperature conditions. Possible later K₂0 introduction modified the earlier formed rock types.
A Rb-Sr whole rock age of 432 ± 10 Ma has been obtained by a seven point isochron with MSDW = 2.59 and an initial Sr isotope ratio = 0.715. This age is approximately 30 Ma older than the previously obtained K-Ar whole rock and Rb-Sr biotite ages, ca. 400 Ma, which represents the period of cooling. The high initial Sr isotope ratio supports the interpretation of an anatectic origin.     

The water-ecological problems of territorial development

The resolution of the issues related to the prevention of ecological problems having a technogenic as well as a natural character relies on a knowledge of the formation patterns of hydrological processes, which makes it possible to rationally manage water resources, ecologically transform landscapes, and minimize the consequences of socio-economic development of the territory. The theoretical foundations of landscape-hydrological analysis, combined with the principles of instrumental landscape planning, determine the system of basin management, and some methods for tackling the water-ecological problems.     

Late Tertiary paleoclimatic interpretation from lacustrine rhythmites in the Gray Fossil Site,northeastern Tennessee,USA

The Gray Fossil Site (GFS) includes a small (<2 ha) paleosinkhole lake fill with an exceptionally well-preserved record of sedimentation and fossils from the latest Miocene to earliest Pliocene. The uppermost lacustrine stratigraphy is characterized by rhythmites that regularly alternate between coarse-grained and organic-rich (A) laminae and fine-grained, silty clay (B) laminae. Both the A and B components are almost exclusively comprised of exogenic sediment (including organic matter). Periodicities of 24 and 4.4 are recorded within a continuous 96 interpreted year sequence of rhythmite sediment. In a small lake with a poorly oxygenated bottom, the presence of laterally continuous laminated sediment that includes well-known periodicities in rhythmite thickness is interpreted as representing annually generated varves that correspond to seasonal variations in sedimentation. The distinctly larger fraction of medium sand-size quartz grains present within the A laminae, as well as the abrupt transitions between A and B components suggest that the rhythmites represent deposition during alternating high-energy and lower-energy seasons, which is consistent with a monsoonal precipitation pattern. The seasonal climate may relate to changes in the ocean circulation pattern prior to 4.6 Ma that resulted in an increased temperature and atmospheric pressure gradient between the east coast of North America and the Atlantic Ocean, but this climate phase seems to be only a temporary condition, as underlying and overlying sediment are both consistent with drier conditions. The periodicity at 24 interpreted years is consistent with the well-known Hale solar cycle. The 4.4 interpreted-year periodicity occurs within the ENSO frequency band, and if this documentation of ENSO-like interannual climate change is correct, then it suggests that ENSO operated at times during the warm Earth conditions characterizing the late Tertiary.     

Epiphytic diatoms as flood indicators

The hydroecology of floodplain lakes is strongly regulated by flood events. The threat of climate warming and increasing human activities requires development of scientific methods to quantify changes in the frequency of short-lived flood events, because they remain difficult to identify using conventional paleolimnological and monitoring approaches. We developed an approach to detect floods in sediment records by comparing the abundance and composition of epiphytic diatom communities in flooded and non-flooded ponds of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), Canada, that grew on submerged macrophytes (Potamogeton zosteriformis, P. perfoliatus) and an artificial substrate (polypropylene sheets) during the open-water season of 2005. Analysis of similarity tests showed that epiphytic diatom community composition differs significantly between flooded and non-flooded ponds. After accounting for the “pond effect,” paired comparisons of the three substrates determined that variation in community composition between the artificial substrate and macrophytes was similar to that between the macrophyte taxa. Similarity percentage analysis identified diatom taxa that discriminate between flooded and non-flooded ponds. The relative abundance of ‘strong flood indicator taxa’ was used to construct an event-scale flood record spanning the past 180 years using analyses of sedimentary diatom assemblages from a closed-drainage pond (PAD 5). Results were verified by close agreement with an independent paleoflood record from a nearby flood-prone oxbow pond (PAD 54) and historical records. Comparison of epiphytic diatoms in flooded and non-flooded lakes in this study provides a promising approach to detect changes in flood frequency, and may have applications for reconstructing other pulse-type disturbances such as hurricanes and pollutant spills.