Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System: Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi, Eastern China

Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years,the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system,which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target,the physical predictive and downscaling components,and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end.A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble;THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi,a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China.The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information.Although the TIGGE results provided by existing national/international operating models were independent from the user-end,the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.     

黑龙江省冰雹的气候及空间分布特征．

利用黑龙江省80个气象台站38a的降雹资料,应用统计方法对黑龙江省的降雹规律进行分析．得到了黑龙江省冰雹的时间和空间分布特征。空间上,黑龙江省冰雹天气分布中北部多,东南、西南部少;时间上,降雹存在明显的日变化,基本都集中于10-20时;冰雹天气年际变化明显,70年代至今,年代平均降雹呈现减少趋势。     

长治高温气候特征及分析预报

通过对长治市1977年-2004年6月-8月出现≥35℃的高温天气的地理分布特征、时间和强度等统计研究,给出了高温天气的气候背景。从500hPa高空形势分析,归纳出造成高温天气的四种主要环流形势（两槽一脊型、纬向环流型、大陆暖高型、副高控制型）;分析了风、云、降水等气象要素与高温天气的内在联系。通过850hPa高温预报指标站的选取及数值预报产品的统计分析,给出了高温天气的综合性预报模型。     

Remote Sensing of Eupatorium Adenophorum Spreng Based on HJ-A Satellite Data

In the southwest of China, one of the greatest threats to local ecosystem is the area expansion of an invasive species, i.e., Eupatorium adenophorum Spreng (EAS). In this study, the remote-sensing technology was used to detect and map the spatial distribution of EAS in Guizhou Province, China. A series of vegetation indices, including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), simple ratio index (SRI) and atmospherically resistant vegetation index (ARVI), were used to identify EAS from HJ-A Chninese satellite data. According to the analysis results of fieldworks from March 21 to 22, 2009, it was found that the vegetation index of {1.9589 ≤ SRI ≤ 4.1095}∩{0.2359 ≤ ARVI ≤ 0.5193} was the optimal remote-sensing parameter for identifying EAS from HJ-A data. According to the spatial distribution of EAS estimated from HJ-A data, it was found that EAS was rather more in southwest of Guizhou Province than in northeast. EAS became sparse from southwest to northeast gradually, and the central Guizhou Province was the ecological corridor linking EAS in southwest to that in northeast. By comparison with validated data collected by the government of Guizhou Province, it was found that the uncertainty of remote-sensing method was 18.52%, 29.31%, 8.77% and 9.46% in grassland, forest, farmland and others respectively, and the mean uncertainty was 13.29%. Owing to the lower height of EAS than many plants in forest, the uncertainty of EAS was the greatest in forest than that in grassland, farmland and so on.     

基于分形理论的建筑物沉降观测数据处理

建筑物在施工、运营阶段受主体荷载等各种因素影响会产生沉降变形,为了利于建筑物沉降分析,保障建筑物安全,分析了分形理论在建筑物沉降数据处理中的可行性。通过实例,得出了基于分形理论的建筑物沉降数据处理方法。     

油库自动化计量软件系统应用分析与改进实现

对国内外众多油库目前投入使用的各种计量系统进行分析,剖析其各自的优缺点,并结合国际国内的现场总线技术的发展趋势,给出一个更加合理的现代化自动计量系统的系统构架,并使用Ｃ＃和ＳＱＬＳｅｒｖｅｒ实现软件系统．     

近48a台北市气温的小波分析

利用Morlet小波分析了1961—2008年台北市年平均气温序列的小波变化特征,揭示了气温变化的多时间尺度结构,结果表明:台北市年平均气温存在多时间尺度的周期变化特征,有3个明显的特征时间尺度,分别是4 a、6-8 a和14-16 a;除14-16 a的时间尺度在整个研究时段都很明显外,其他尺度的周期阶段性都较强;以14-16 a的特征时间尺度为主周期;台北市的气温变化还表现出突变的特点;近48 a来,台北市年平均气温的气候倾向率为0.3℃/10 a,气温升高的趋势十分明显;未来2年气温在总趋势上升的前提下将处在一个偏冷期。     

Simulation of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions of China by CMIP3 Models

The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 （CMIP3） were evaluated, with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century. Most models failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China, but provided reasonable results in Southwest （SW） and Northeast China （NE）. The simulations produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai （YH） Basin area, although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general. One typical regional phenomenon, a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer, was completely missed by most models. The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated, and the observed geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models. Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV （Generalized Ex- treme Values） distributions. The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions, but reasonable values were calculated for the North China （NC） and NE regions. These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models. Nonetheless, models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.     

双流冬草莓低温冻害天气特征及防冻措施探讨

双流县作为我国最大的冬草莓生产基地,低温冻害是冬季生产关键期的主要气象灾害。本文对2005年初低温冻害进行了分析,归纳出了双流县冬草莓低温冻害的发生规律及冻害临界温度指标,并提出了具体的防冻措施。     

Scaling of oblique impacts in frictional targets: Implications for crater size and formation mechanisms

Almost every meteorite impact occurs at an oblique angle of incidence, yet the effect of impact angle on crater size or formation mechanism is only poorly understood. This is, in large part, due to the difficulty of inferring impactor properties, such as size, velocity and trajectory, from observations of natural craters, and the expense and complexity of simulating oblique impacts using numerical models. Laboratory oblique impact experiments and previous numerical models have shown that the portion of the projectile’s kinetic energy that is involved in crater excavation decreases significantly with impact angle. However, a thorough quantification of planetary-scale oblique impact cratering does not exist and the effect of impact angle on crater size is not considered by current scaling laws. To address this gap in understanding, we developed iSALE-3D, a three-dimensional multi-rheology hydrocode, which is efficient enough to perform a large number of well-resolved oblique impact simulations within a reasonable time. Here we present the results of a comprehensive numerical study containing more than 200 three-dimensional hydrocode-simulations covering a broad range of projectile sizes, impact angles and friction coefficients. We show that existing scaling laws in principle describe oblique planetary-scale impact events at angles greater than 30° measured from horizontal. The displaced mass of a crater decreases with impact angle in a sinusoidal manner. However, our results indicate that the assumption that crater size scales with the vertical component of the impact velocity does not hold for materials with a friction coefficient significantly lower than 0.7 (sand). We found that increasing coefficients of friction result in smaller craters and a formation process more controlled by impactor momentum than by energy.