Regularized Bayesian estimation for GEV-B-splines model

Large observed datasets are not stationary and/or depend on covariates, especially, in the case of extreme hydrometeorological variables. This causes the difficulty in estimation, using classical hydrological frequency analysis. A number of non-stationary models have been developed using linear or quadratic polynomial functions or B-splines functions to estimate the relationship between parameters and covariates. In this article, we propose regularised generalized extreme value model with B-splines (GEV-B-splines models) in a Bayesian framework to estimate quantiles. Regularisation is based on penalty and aims to favour parsimonious model especially in the case of large dimension space. Penalties are introduced in a Bayesian framework and the corresponding priors are detailed. Five penalties are considered and the corresponding priors are developed for comparison purpose as: Least absolute shrinkage and selection (Lasso and Ridge) and smoothing clipped absolute deviations (SCAD) methods (SCAD1, SCAD2 and SCAD3). Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have been developed for each model to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. Those approaches are tested and illustrated using simulated data with different sample sizes. A first simulation was made on polynomial B-splines functions in order to choose the most efficient model in terms of relative mean biais (RMB) and the relative mean-error (RME) criteria. A second simulation was performed with the SCAD1 penalty for sinusoidal dependence to illustrate the flexibility of the proposed approach. Results show clearly that the regularized approaches leads to a significant reduction of the bias and the mean square error, especially for small sample sizes (n < 100). A case study has been considered to model annual peak flows at Fort-Kent catchment with the total annual precipitations as covariates. The conditional quantile curves were given for the regularized and the maximum likelihood methods.     

Application of data assimilation for improving forecast of water levels and residual currents in Singapore regional waters

Hydrodynamic models are commonly used for predicting water levels and currents in the deep ocean, ocean margins and shelf seas. Their accuracy is typically limited by factors, such as the complexity of the coastal geometry and bathymetry, plus the uncertainty in the flow forcing (deep ocean tide, winds and pressure). In Southeast Asian waters with its strongly hydrodynamic characteristics, the lack of detailed marine observations (bathymetry and tides) for model validation is an additional factor limiting flow representation. This paper deals with the application of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based data assimilation with the purpose of improving the deterministic model forecast. The efficacy of the EnKF is analysed via a twin experiment conducted with the 2D barotropic Singapore regional model. The results show that the applied data assimilation can improve the forecasts significantly in this complex flow regime.     

Hydrogeophysical investigation of groundwater potential in the El Bawiti, Northern Bahariya Oasis, Western Desert, Egypt

The future development of agriculture, industry, and civil activity planned to be in the Western Desert. This strategy need to the groundwater resource. Vertical electrical soundings (VES) and electromagnetic (TEM) measurements conducted in the El Bawiti, northern Bahariya Oasis. The measurements give detailed information about the geometry of the different hydrogeological layers in the aquifer system and depth to them. A total of 22 VES and TEM were carried out within El Bawiti area. Thirty-one sub soil samples were collected from eight sites to determine the chemical characteristics and address the effects of lithogenic source and anthropogenic activity on them. The geoelectrical measurements and borehole information indicate the presence of five geoelectrical units, from top to base; the surface cover, sand and shale, upper aquifer (Nubian sandstone), sand and shale, and lower aquifer (Nubian sandstone). Surface cover was equally distributed in thickness and composed of dry sand, gravel, and clay deposits. The regional resistivity of the upper aquifer increased in the southwestern part and decline in the northern, eastern, southern, and western parts. The decline in the resistivity reflects the high water yields and potentiality, as well as low salinity. The resistivity of the lower aquifer increased due the northwestern part and the southwestern part. The information collected during this research provides valuable data for estimating the fresh- to brackish-water resources and for development of a groundwater management plan. The integrated analyses carried out represent a significant and cost-effective method for delineating the main aquifer in this area. In turn, future well locations can be placed with more confidence than before, in accordance with the evaluation of the potentiality of the groundwater aquifers in the area. The electrical conductivity of the soil ranges from 302 to 8,490 μS/cm, increases in the western and central-northern parts. It is attributed to the location from the salt-affected soils (playa), the relatively lower elevation units (depressions) and the position in landscape in the Oasis. Sodium adsorption ratio ranges from 0.44 to 11 and the exchangeable sodium ratio ranges from 0.11 to 5. The estimated magnesium hazard fluctuated below 50%. The statistical analyses were accomplished in soil chemistry and discussed.     

Statistical properties of the temperature, relative humidity, and net solar radiation in the Blue Nile-eastern Sudan region

This paper presents the results of the first stage of an ongoing project of evaluating the spatial and temporal variability of soil water as fundamental factors for vegetation regeneration in the arid ecosystems in the Blue Nile-eastern Sudan. The specific aim of the present study is to understand the temporal and spatial variations of the major climate variables in the region and discuss its relevance to regional climate variability and changes. In this case, we systematically analyze the major climate variables (maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, and net solar radiation). To evaluate the different characteristics of the climate variables, Mann–Kendall method, two-phase regression scheme, and wavelet transform technique are used; each method has its own strength and weakness, and the results of the three methods complement each other. The results show that the annual and seasonal maximum temperatures are increasing significantly. The annual minimum temperature and minimum temperature in dry seasons are decreasing. The minimum temperature in rainy season is increasing with a smaller rate as compared with the increase of maximum temperature in the season. The difference between maximum and minimum temperature is increasing in all the seasons. Net solar radiation in the region shows a significant increasing trend in all seasons, which corresponds well with the changes of maximum temperature. Besides, significant decreasing trends can be identified for relative humidity in all the seasons.     

Recent evolution of Lake Arreo,northern Spain: influences of land use change and climate

We present a high-resolution, multiproxy reconstruction of the depositional history of Lake Arreo, northern Spain, for the last 60 years. We conducted sedimentological, geochemical and diatom analyses in short cores and made a detailed comparison with regional instrumental climate data (1952–2007), limnological monitoring of the lake (1992–2008) and recent land use changes that affect the lake catchment. Chronology is based on “floating” discontinuous varve counts and ¹³⁷Cs and ¹⁴C dates. Four periods were identified in the Lake Arreo recent history: (1) prior to 1963, varved facies intercalated with fine turbidite deposits, and diatom assemblages dominated by Cyclotella taxa indicate predominantly meromictic conditions, (2) from 1964 to 1978, permanent anoxia persisted in bottom waters, as shown by similar facies and diatom assemblages as before, though detrital layers were coarser, (3) from 1979 to 1994, sediment delivery to the lake increased and laminated, clastic facies were deposited, and (4) from 1995 to 2008, dominance of massive facies and an increase in Fragilaria tenera and Achnanthes minutissima reflect relatively lower lake levels, less frequent bottom anoxia with more frequent water column mixing, similar to modern conditions. The period 1952–1979 was a time of meromixis and varved facies deposition, and was characterized by higher rainfall and less intense agricultural pressure in the watershed. There were two short humid periods (1992–1993 and 1996–1998) when monitoring data show more anoxic weeks per year and relatively higher lake levels. Increased cultivation of small landholdings in 1963, and particularly after 1979, caused a large increase in sediment delivery to the lake. The inferred lake evolution is in agreement with monitoring data that suggest a transition from dominantly meromictic conditions prior to 1993–1994 to a predominantly monomictic pattern of circulation since then, particularly after 2000. The synergistic effects of intensive water extraction for irrigation and lower rainfall since 1979, and particularly since 1994, brought the long period of meromictic conditions in Lake Arreo to an end. Water balance and sediment delivery to the lake are dominant factors that control the limnological and mixing conditions in Lake Arreo and they must be considered in management and restoration plans.     

The influence of carbonate textures and rock composition on durability cycles and geomechanical aspects of carbonate rocks

Acta Geotechnica - One of the most important geotechnical parameters in studying the engineering behavior of a rock mass is slake durability. The major goal of this research is to test how a series...     

Role of Fracturing in the Organization of the Karst Features of Azrou Plateau (Middle Atlas,Morroco) Studied by Remote Sensing Imagery

Karst formation geometry can be controlled by fractures and faults, and by other lithologies. Here we show the organization of kastic collapse features related to structures and to extensive basaltic lava flows in the Middle Atlas of Morocco. A lineament map of major faults and fractures has been created for the Middle Atlas using Landsat 7 ETM⁺ satellite images. This shows a dominant NE–SW regional direction and less prominent NNW–SSE and ENE–WSE directions. All these directions coincide with the alignments of karstic depressions that have formed in the Liassic limestones. The basaltic flows covering these formations on the Middle Atlas limestone plateau, have allowed the generation of cryptokarst, geometrically organized a long these major lineament directions. Karst landforms probabaly existed before the eruption of the lavas, but there were partly invaded by intrusions and volcanism. The extensive basaltic flows allowed for increased infiltration, and subsurface water flow, increasing the rate of kast formation after eruptions. Some basins show evidence of increased subsidence after lava emplacement (Aguelmam Sidi Ali Lake) and some maar-like craters also have subsided after eruption, by karts formation. We lay out the structural and lithological controls on Karstic formation in an intraplate volcanic field based on limestones and evaporites.     

Effects of basin activities and land use on water quality trends in Tahtali Basin, Turkey

Bi-weekly water quality data from seven monitoring stations located within Tahtali Watershed, ?zmir, Turkey and digital land use/land cover data of the same watershed are analyzed in this study. To examine the changes in land use associated with urbanization, the satellite images of the main pool of the Tahtali reservoir prior to filling and subsequent to filling, respectively, are analyzed. Aerial photos of the basin taken in 1995 (October) are compared with images taken in 2005 (November) from the IKONOS satellite through use of several GIS techniques. New residential buildings, greenhouses, and industrial buildings are presented in separate layers, and changes in basin activities are quantified. The effects of urbanization on the water quality are investigated through statistical analysis. The seasonal Kendall test is applied to the water quality parameters monitored bi-weekly at seven stations within the basin for the duration 1997–2005. There was no trend in phosphorus, but there was a negative trend in boron and nitrate and a positive trend in the parameters of biological oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD). The improvement in nitrate concentrations is attributed to the new regulations on the use of fertilizers in greenhouses. However, increase of BOD and COD concentrations is related to the growing settlement areas and industrial zones, which point to the insufficient wastewater treatment within the basin. Soil erosion within the basin is also quantified by the universal soil loss equation using available maps. Estimated total soil loss rate increased about 2.5 times that of 1995 when the changed land use composition in 2005 is considered in the calculations.     

The differential geography of housing affordability in Sydney: a disaggregated approach

ABSTRACT

Despite extensive studies being devoted to housing affordability in Australia, few have investigated housing affordability at a disaggregated level. This is in spite of the fact that there are existing socio-economic and demographic disparities across different regions of a city. This study aims to fill this gap by examining housing affordability in Sydney, a city that is characterised by diverse demographic and socio-economic mix, from a sub-city perspective. Two dimensions of affordability are assessed from 1991 to 2016: entry-level and ongoing housing affordability. The study finds that entry-level housing remains extremely unaffordable in all regions of Greater Sydney, although the level of unaffordability varies across regions. Specifically, the deterioration in housing affordability is more obvious in low-income regions such as Western Sydney. In addition, the ongoing housing affordability of those who have entered the market improves considerably within 5–10 years, although there are significant variations between different regions. Importantly, residents in low-income regions such as Western Sydney take a longer period to improve their ongoing affordability. The findings of differential geography of housing affordability have some profound policy implications. Policymakers should consider the disparities across different regions by formulating a more targeted and regionally balanced housing policy.