Modelling the sustainability and productivity of pastoral systems in the communal areas of Namaqualand

We investigated the effects of rainfall and the number of animals on changes in vegetation and on the output of milk and meat from the communal areas of Namaqualand. Previously published short- and long-term models link processes that range from the levels of tissue (in, for example, the mammary gland), to the milk yields of individual animals, to the growth and survival of their young and to long-term changes in plant species populations at the ecosystem level. These models have been used to study how different factors and management strategies affect livestock productivity and vegetation composition on a 20,000 ha rangeland in Namaqualand. First, the inter-relations between rainfall, stocking rate and productivity were studied using the short-term model. This model shows that in addition to total rainfall and stocking rate, the timing of rainfall within a year also influences doe live weight and survival to the end of the year. When the long-term model is run, using recorded rainfall, predictions of small stock numbers agree closely with livestock data recorded over the same 30-year period. One thousand replicates of 100-year runs of the long-term model were then used to study the probable impact of different upper limits to stock numbers on animal performance. Off take (sales and slaughterings) are maximal when stock numbers are limited to 2000 adults. Animal numbers increase marginally as the limit is increased above this level, but the variability between years in numbers increases. Secondly, the long-term model was used to study the long-term effects of the stocking rate strategies on rangeland condition. The model predicts that although these effects are variable, when moderately degraded range is stocked with an upper limit at the recommended level it is unable to recover to less degraded states over 100 years. Thirdly, the model was used to examine the effects of reduction in stock numbers and slaughtering of kids in a drought year on goat numbers during the subsequent 5 years. Finally, the model predicts that a 10% reduction in mean annual rainfall will lead to a 35% reduction in animal numbers over 200 years.     

Reducing model complexity for explanation and prediction

Numerical models can be useful for explaining poorly understood phenomena or for reliable quantitative predictions. When modeling a multi-scale system, a ‘top-down’ approach—basing models on emergent variables and interactions, rather than explicitly on the much faster and smaller scale processes that give rise to them—facilitates both goals. Parameterizations representing emergent interactions range from highly simplified and abstracted to more quantitatively accurate. Empirically based large-scale parameterizations lead more reliably to accurate large-scale behavior than do parameterizations of much smaller scale processes. Conversely, purposefully simplified representations of model interactions can enhance a model's utility for explanation, clarifying the key feedbacks leading to an enigmatic behavior. For such potential insights to be relevant, the interactions in the model need to correspond to those in the ‘real’ system in some straightforward way. Such a correspondence usually holds for models constructed for predictive purposes, although this is not a requirement. The goals motivating a modeling endeavor help determine the most appropriate modeling strategies, as well as the most appropriate criteria for judging model usefulness.     

Characterizing groundwater flow in a faulted karst system using optical brighteners from septic systems as tracers

This study used optical brighteners (OB) released from septic systems to show that groundwater flow direction is largely controlled by the structural framework in a faulted karst groundwater system. Effective protection of groundwater resources requires that groundwater systems are adequately characterized and source water protection areas (SWPA) are developed for drinking water wells. Karst aquifers are among the most sensitive to contamination due to high recharge rates, and among the most difficult aquifers to characterize due to heterogeneity, and anisotropy. Because septic systems may be used to treat wastewater within SWPAs for karst aquifers there is a need to characterize these groundwater systems using tracers. The objective of this study was to characterize groundwater flow in a faulted portion of the Edwards aquifer in Bexar County, Texas using OB that are released as incidental tracers from septic systems. This study included measurement of water levels, sampling of groundwater and surface water, analysis for OB, and spatial analysis in a GIS. Results show that OB intensities were highest to the southwest of the septic area, a direction that is sub-parallel to the fault and fracture orientation and nearly perpendicular to the hydraulic gradient. This indicates that movement of OB, solutes, or non-aqueous liquids/solids in a faulted karst system can be largely controlled by fault/fracture orientation and structural relay ramps.     

Dilemmas of development in Oceania: the political economy of the Tongan agro-export sector

This article critically engages with the recent diffusion of the orthodox development model in Oceania and highlights some evolving dilemmas. In particular, it explores the social, economic and ecological tensions arising from economic reforms that are exacerbating the fragility of already vulnerable nation-states and communities. In order to illustrate its arguments, a case study of the impacts of agro-export growth in Tonga is presented. Attention is drawn to the socially inequitable and ecologically unsustainable outcomes of rapid growth in this sector. In analyzing the political economy of the squash pumpkin sector, the authors point to the important role that culture plays in mediating and conditioning development outcomes. Reflecting on the Tongan case, it is argued that to better understand the implications of orthodox developmental reform in the region, research must seek to more explicitly incorporate distributional and ethical analysis.     

Use of a shared tuned mass damper (STMD) to reduce vibration and pounding in adjacent structures

The dynamic response of tall civil structures due to earthquakes is very important to civil engineers. Structures exposed to earthquakes experience vibrations that are detrimental to their structural components. Structural pounding is an additional problem that occurs when buildings experience earthquake excitation. This phenomena occurs when adjacent structures collide from their out‐of‐phase vibrations. Many energy dissipation devices are presently being used to reduce the system response. Tuned mass dampers (TMD) are commonly used to improve the response of structures. The stiffness and damping properties of the TMD are designed to be a function of the natural frequency of the building to which it is connected. This research involves attaching adjacent structures with a shared tuned mass damper (STMD) to reduce both the structures vibration and probability of pounding. Because the STMD is connected to both buildings, the problem of tuning the STMD stiffness and damping parameters becomes an issue. A design procedure utilizing a performance function is used to obtain the STMD parameters to result in the best overall system response. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibration of diatoms along a nutrient gradient in Florida Everglades Water Conservation Area-2A, USA

The relationship between diatom taxa preserved in surface soils and environmental variables at 31 sites in Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A) of the Florida Everglades was explored using multivariate analyses. Surface soils were collected along a phosphorus (P) gradient and analyzed for diatoms, total P, % nitrogen (N), %carbon (C), calcium (Ca), and biogenic silica (BSi). Phosphorus varied from 315-1781 g g^-1, and was not found to be correlated with the other geochemical variables. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was used to examine which environmental variables correlated most closely with the distributions in diatom taxa. Canonical correspondence analysis with forward selection, constrained and partial CCA, and Monte Carlo permutation tests of significance show the most significant changes in diatom assemblages along the P gradient (p < 0.01), with additional species differences correlated with soil C, N, Ca, and BSi.Weighted-averaging (WA) regression and calibration models of diatom assemblages to P and BSi were developed. The diatom-based inference model for soil [P] had a high apparent r² (0.86) with RMSE_boot = 218 g g^-1. Indicator diatom species identified by assessing species WA optima and WA tolerance to [P], such as Nitzschia amphibia and N. palea for high [P] (~1300-1400 g^-1) and Achnanthes minutissima var. scotica and Mastogloia smithii for low [P] (~400-600 g g^-1), may be useful as monitoring tools for eutrophication in WCA-2A as well as other areas of the Everglades. Diatom assemblages analyzed by cluster analysis were related to location within WCA-2A, and dominant taxa within clusters are discussed in relation to the geochemical variables measured as well as hydrology and pH. Diversity of diatom assemblages and a Disturbance Index based on diatom data are discussed in relation to the historically P-limited Everglades ecosystem. Diatom assemblages should be very useful for reconstructions of [P] through time in the Florida Everglades, provided diatoms are well preserved in soil cores.     

Low energy ions in corotating interaction regions at 1 AU: Observations

The spacecraft ISEE-3 was launched in August 1978 and subsequently placed in orbit about the Sun-Earth L1 libration point where it continuously monitored the particles and fields in interplanetary space until mid-1982. The ISEE-3 Energetic Proton Anisotropy Spectrometer makes 3-dimensional intensity measurements of 35–1600 keV, Z ? 1 ions. This data is used in conjunction with simultaneous solar wind plasma and magnetic field data from the same spacecraft to study the properties of ions in interaction regions lying at the leading edges of nine corotating high speed solar wind streams observed during October 1978–July 1979. Seven streams have an enhancement of ? 300 keV ions in the compressed fast stream plasma between the stream interface and interaction region trailing edge. These enhancements are associated with plasma heating to above 3 × 10⁵ K, have soft spectra (spectral index ～ 4.5?6.0) and in five cases show anti-solar streaming in the solar wind frame.