Frequency analyses of annual extreme rainfall series from 5 min to 24 h

The parameter estimation methods of (1) moments, (2) maximum‐likelihood, (3) probability‐weighted moments (PWM) and (4) self‐determined PWM are applied to the probability distributions of Gumbel, general extreme values, three‐parameter log‐normal (LN3), Pearson‐3 and log‐Pearson‐3. The special method of computing parameters so as to make the sample skewness coefficient zero is also applied to LN3, and hence, altogether 21 candidate distributions resulted. The parameters of these distributions are computed first by original sample series of 14 successive‐duration annual extreme rainfalls recorded at a rain‐gauging station. Next, the parameters are scaled by first‐degree semi‐log or log‐log polynomial regressions versus rainfall durations from 5 to 1440 min (24 h). Those distributions satisfying the divergence criterion for frequency curves are selected as potential distributions, whose better‐fit ones are determined by a conjunctive evaluation of three goodness‐of‐fit tests. Frequency tables, frequency curves and intensity–duration–frequency curves are the outcome. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional Variations of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">ω</Emphasis>-upper Bound Magnitude of GIII Distribution in the Iranian Plateau

The Iranian Plateau does not appear to be a single crustal block, but an assemblage of zones comprising the Alborz—Azerbaijan, Zagros, Kopeh—Dagh, Makran, and Central and East Iran. The Gumbel’s III asymptotic distribution method (GIII) and maximum magnitude expected by Kijko—Sellevoll method is applied in order to check the potentiality of the each seismogenic zone in the Iranian Plateau for the future occurrence of maximum magnitude (M_max). For this purpose, a homogeneous and complete seismicity database of the instrumental period during 1900–2012 is used in 29 seismogenic zones of the examined region. The spatial mapping of hazard parameters (upper bound magnitude (ω), most probable earthquake magnitude in next 100 years (M₁₀₀) and maximum magnitude expected by maximum magnitude estimated by Kijko—Sellevoll method (max M_{K ? S}^max) reveals that Central and East Iran, Alborz and Azerbaijan, Kopeh—Dagh and SE Zagros are a dangerous place for the next occurrence of a large earthquake.     

The effect of seasonally frozen soil on stochastic response of elevated water tank under random excitation

Significant seismic events have occurred around the world during winter months in regions where cold temperatures cause ground freezing. Current seismic design practice does not address the effects of cold temperatures in the seasonally frozen areas. Since many elevated water tank structures in cold regions are located in seismic active zones, determining the effect of seasonally frozen soil on the stochastic response of elevated water tank structures subjected to random seismic excitation is an important structural consideration. A three dimensional finite element model, which considers viscous boundaries, was built up to obtain the stochastic seismic behavior of an elevated water tank–fluid–soil interaction system for frozen soil condition. For this model, the power spectral density function represents random ground motion applied to each support point of the three dimensional finite element model of the elevated water tank–fluid–soil interaction system. Numerical results show that the soil temperature affects the seismic response of the elevated water tank; whereas the variation in the thickness of the frozen soil causes insignificant changes on the response. In addition, the effect of the variation in water tank’s fullness on the stochastic response of the coupled system is investigated in the study. As a result, the seasonal frost changes the foundation soil stiffness and may impact seismic behavior of the water tank.     

Sampling epifauna, a necessity for a better assessment of benthic ecosystem functioning: an example of the epibenthic aggregated species Ophiothrix fragilis from the Bay of Seine

Sampling the sea bottom surface remains difficult because of the surface hydraulic shock due to water flowing through the gear (i.e., the bow wave effect) and the loss of epifauna organisms due to the gear’s closing mechanism. Slow-moving mobile epifauna, such as the ophiuroid Ophiothrix fragilis, form high-density patches in the English Channel, not only on pebbles like in the Dover Strait or offshore Brittany but also on gravel in the Bay of Seine (>5000 ind m⁻²). Such populations form high biomasses and control the water transfer from the water column to the sediment. Estimating their real density and biomass is essential for the assessment of benthic ecosystem functioning using trophic web modelling. In this paper, we present and discuss the patch patterns and sampling efficiency of the different methods for collecting in the dense beds of O. fragilis in the Bay of Seine. The large Hamon grab (0.25 m⁻²) highly under-estimated the ophiuroid density, while the Smith McIntyre appeared adequate among the tested sampling grabs. Nowadays, diving sampling, underwater photography and videos with remote operated vehicle appear to be the recommended alternatives to estimate the real density of such dense slow-moving mobile epifauna.     

Determination of the Effect of Aeration Rate on Composting of Vegetable–Fruit Wastes

In this study, it was aimed to determine the effect of various aeration rates on composting to supply the optimum aeration rate for a successful and economic composting. For this aim, vegetable–fruit wastes (VFW) were composted at various aeration rates (0.37, 0.49, 0.62, 0.74, 0.86, and 0.99 L/min kg VS) and moisture, temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, C/N, and cellulose were investigated. Moistures of the reactor that had the highest aeration were generally lower than those of the others. Reactor that had the lowest aeration reached thermophilic phase earlier than the others and stayed more days. This situation was opposite for the reactor that had the highest aeration. pH variations with aeration rates were not significant. Although electrical conductivity did not differ significantly with aeration rates, at the beginning of the thermophilic phase it generally increased with the increase in aeration. The highest C/N reduction was observed in the reactor that had an aeration of 0.62 L/min kg VS. The final cellulose contents were close to each other. It could be said that aeration rates used were efficient on composting of VFW. Taking the C/N into account which is the parameter of the indicator of the stabilization in composting, it could be said that the optimum aeration rate for forced aerobic composting of VFW was 0.62 L/min kg VS.     

Environmental effect and genetic influence: a regional cancer predisposition survey in the Zonguldak region of Northwest Turkey

The Cretaceous-Eocene volcano-sedimentary units of the Zonguldak region of the western Black Sea consist of subalkaline andesite and tuff, and sandstone dominated by smectite, kaolinite, accessory chlorite, illite, mordenite, and analcime associated with feldspar, quartz, opal-CT, amphibole, and calcite. Kaolinization, chloritization, sericitization, albitization, Fe–Ti-oxidation, and the presence of zeolite, epidote, and illite in andesitic rocks and tuffaceous materials developed as a result of the degradation of a glass shards matrix, enclosed feldspar, and clinopyroxene-type phenocrysts, due to alteration processes. The association of feldspar and glass with smectite and kaolinite, and the suborientation of feldspar-edged, subparallel kaolinite plates to fracture axes may exhibit an authigenic smectite or kaolinite. Increased alteration degree upward in which Al, Fe, and Ti are gained, and Si, Na, K, and Ca are depleted, is due to the alteration following possible diagenesis and hydrothermal activities. Micromorphologically, fibrous mordenite in the altered units and the presence of needle-type chrysotile in the residential buildings in which cancer cases lived were detected. In addition, the segregation pattern of cancer susceptibility in the region strongly suggested an environmental effect and a genetic influence on the increased cancer incidence in the region. The most likely diagnosis was Li-Fraumeni syndrome, which is one of the hereditary cancer predisposition syndromes; however, no mutations were observed in the p53 gene, which is the major cause of Li-Fraumeni syndrome. The micromorphology observed in the altered units in which cancer cases were detected may have a role in the expression of an unidentified gene, but does not explain alone the occurrence of cancer as a primary cause in the region.     

Elastic settlements under linear surface pressures on rectangular areas

This paper presents the practical closed‐form solutions for elastic settlement under the linear full‐contact pressures on rectangular areas resting upon an elastic mass. The linear pressure distribution is mostly assumed in practice for the rectangular footing having biaxial bending. The equations presented here are determined by evaluating the integration of Steinbrenner's strain approximation based on the stress solutions from the Boussinesq equations. The presented formulae are validated to be used for the elastic settlement under any point of linear full‐contact loading, triangular and embankment types of pressure cases. In this respect, it represents a significant step forward in the understanding of elastic settlement and rotation under the practical loading cases. The presented solutions are concise and easy to use. The numerical examples are demonstrated and the resulting influence factors in graphical forms are presented for their practical use especially in the elastic settlement calculations of rectangular footing subjected to the biaxial bending. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Basin progress: active deformation analysis by tectonostratigraphic elements and geophysical methods on North Anatolian Fault System (Eastern Marmara Region,Turkey)

Natural Hazards - The Northern Branch of the North Anatolian Fault System controls and deforms the Izmit Basin and the Sapanca Lake Basin in the study area. Unlike the Sapanca Lake Basin, the...     

Probability distributions for carbon emissions and atmospheric response

Probability distributions for carbon burning, atmospheric CO₂, and global average temperature are produced by time series calibration of models of utility optimization and carbon and heat balance using log-linear production functions. Population growth is used to calibrate a logistically evolving index of development that influences production efficiency. Energy production efficiency also includes a coefficient that decreases linearly with decreasing carbon intensity of energy production. This carbon intensity is a piecewise linear function of fossil carbon depletion. That function is calibrated against historical data and extrapolated by sampling a set of hypotheses about the impact on the carbon intensity of energy production of depleting fluid fossil fuel resources and increasing cumulative carbon emissions. Atmospheric carbon balance is determined by a first order differential equation with carbon use rates and cumulative carbon use as drivers. Atmospheric CO₂ is a driver in a similar heat balance. Periodic corrections are included where required to make residuals between data and model results indistinguishable from independently and identically distributed normal distributions according to statistical tests on finite Fourier power spectrum amplitudes and nearest neighbor correlations. Asymptotic approach to a sustainable non-fossil energy production is followed for a global disaggregation into a tropical/developing and temperate/more-developed region. The increase in the uncertainty of global average temperature increases nearly quadratically with the increase in the temperature from the present through the next two centuries.