Comparison of Static,Kinematic and Dynamic Geodetic Deformation Models for Kutlugün Landslide in Northeastern Turkey

Being the cause of the loss of life and damaging property, landslide is an important natural hazard. Therefore, landslides have to be monitored and preventive measures taken accordingly. In Geodesy, landslides can be determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models. The aim of this study is to develop a dynamic geodetic model for landslides and compare it with static and kinematic geodetic models. A study area was selected in the Northeastern Black Sea Region of Turkey where landslides are the most effective natural hazard. Movements were determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models using geodetic, geologic and geophysical measurements made in the study area. Groundwater levels changes were regarded as causative forces in the formulation of the dynamic model. The dynamic model delivered more detailed information (direction, values, velocity, acceleration of movements) about landslide movements. It is possible to formulate more realistic strategies about prevention of landslides by using this information. As a result, it can be suggested that dynamic geodetic models are more useful in landslide studies.     

Climate change in Turkey for the last half century

Climate change and its urban-induced bias in selected Turkish cities is studied with a quality controlled temperature and precipitation data of Turkish stations in the period of 1950–2004. These stations are classified into two groups according to their populations; S1, including rural and suburban stations and S2, including large urban stations. Moving average signals, 365-day, and their digital low pass filtered versions are produced to eliminate the short term fluctuations and examine the possible trends or anomalies in climate data. Furthermore, ‘relative difference’ signals are introduced and applied to temperature and precipitation series to observe the actual local changes in the climate data independent from large-scale effects. Mann–Kendall test statistics are calculated for maximum, minimum, mean temperature and precipitation series and plotted on maps to determine any spatial trend patterns. Signal analysis show a cool period extending from early 1960s till 1993, generally with the lowest temperature values on 1992–1993 owing to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. A last decade significant warming trend is observed in both of the series, S1 and S2, leading to 2000–2002 temperatures to be recorded as maximums in record history. The variability of urban precipitation series is generally larger than the rural ones, suggesting that urban stations can experience more frequent and severe droughts and floods. Though not significant, an increase in the urban precipitation compared to the rural one is also found. Spatial analysis resulted in significant warming in southern and southeastern parts of the country. Particularly, minimum temperature series show significant warming in almost all of the regions indicating the effect of urbanization. Significant decreases of precipitation amounts in the western parts of Turkey, such as Aegean and Trachea regions, are found. On the other hand, some Turkish northern stations show increases in precipitation of which some are significant.     

Regional intensity–duration–frequency analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Basin,Turkey, by using L-moments and regression analysis

The analysis of rainfall frequency is an important step in hydrology and water resources engineering. However, a lack of measuring stations, short duration of statistical periods, and unreliable outliers are among the most important problems when designing hydrology projects. In this study, regional rainfall analysis based on L-moments was used to overcome these problems in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) of Turkey. The L-moments technique was applied at all stages of the regional analysis, including determining homogeneous regions, in addition to fitting and estimating parameters from appropriate distribution functions in each homogeneous region. We studied annual maximum rainfall height values of various durations (5 min to 24 h) from seven rain gauge stations located in the EBSB in Turkey, which have gauging periods of 39 to 70 years. Homogeneity of the region was evaluated by using L-moments. The goodness-of-fit criterion for each distribution was defined as the Z^DIST statistics, depending on various distributions, including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type 3 (PE3), and generalized Pareto (GPA). GLO and GEV determined the best distributions for short (5 to 30 min) and long (1 to 24 h) period data, respectively. Based on the distribution functions, the governing equations were extracted for calculation of intensities of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years return periods (T). Subsequently, the T values for different rainfall intensities were estimated using data quantifying maximum amount of rainfall at different times. Using these T values, duration, altitude, latitude, and longitude values were used as independent variables in a regression model of the data. The determination coefficient (R ²) value indicated that the model yields suitable results for the regional relationship of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF), which is necessary for the design of hydraulic structures in small and medium sized catchments.     

An investigation of seismicity for the Central Anatolia region,Turkey

The aim of this study is to investigate the seismicity of Central Anatolia, within the area restricted to coordinates 30–35° longitude and 38–41° latitude, by determining the “a” and “b” parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship using data from earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw)?≥?4.0 that occurred between 1900 and 2010. Based on these parameters and a Poisson model, we aim to predict the probability of other earthquakes of different magnitudes and return periods (recurrence intervals). To achieve this, the study area is divided into six seismogenic zones, using spatial distributions of earthquakes greater than Mw?≥?4.0 with active faults. For each seismogenic zone, the a and b parameters in the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship were calculated by the least squares method. The probability of occurrence and return periods of various magnitude earthquakes were calculated from these statistics using the Poisson method.     

Comments on Rebuttal of M. Sagir

This rebuttal was written in response to the rebuttal of the paper “choosing a municipal landfill site by analytic network process” published in 2007 by M. Sagir. This study was conducted as an application for the landfill site selection in the environmental engineering discipline. Since ANP was only the “instrument” used in our study, the details of this existing methodology were referenced, and not presented, due to page limitations and to match the content of the journal. Responses to M. Sagir’s comments are discussed within the body of this rebuttal.     

Applications of Engineering Seismology for Site Characterization

We determined the seismic model of the soil column within a residential project site in Istanbul, Turkey. Specifically, we conducted a refraction seismic survey at 20 locations using a receiver spread with 484.5-Hz vertical geophones at 2-m intervals. We applied nonlinear tomography to first-arrival times to estimate the P-wave velocity-depth profiles and performed Rayleigh-wave inversion to estimate the S-wave velocity-depth profiles down to a depth of 30 m at each of the locations. We then combined the seismic velocities with the geotechnical borehole information regarding the lithology of the soil column and determined the site-specific geotechnical earthquake engineering parameters for the site. Specifically, we computed the maximum soil amplification ratio, maximum surface-bedrock acceleration ratio, depth interval of significant acceleration, maximum soil-rock response ratio, and design spectrum periods TA-TB. We conducted reflection seismic surveys along five line traverses with lengths between 150 and 300 m and delineated landslide failure surfaces within the site. We recorded shot gathers at 2-m intervals along each of the seismic line traverses using a receiver spread with 4 840-Hz vertical geophones at 2-m intervals. We applied nonlinear tomograpby to first-arrival times to estimate a P-wave velocity-depth model and analyzed the reflected waves to obtain a seismic image of the deep near-surface along each of the line traverses.     

Numerical analysis of reinforced soil walls with granular and cohesive backfills under cyclic loads

Novel approaches to the dynamic analysis of the reinforced soil walls have been reported in the literature. Use of marginal soils reduces the cost of geosynthetic reinforced soil walls if proper drainage measures are taken. Therefore the affect of using cohesive marginal soils as backfill in geosynthetic reinforced retaining structures were investigated in this research. The dynamic response of reinforced soil walls was investigated in a similar focus, using finite element analysis. The results obtained from walls with cohesive backfill were compared to the results obtained from walls with granular backfill. The height of the wall was chosen as 6 m in the two-dimensional plane strain finite element model and the base acceleration was chosen to be a harmonic motion. The effects of various parameters like the backfill type, facing type, reinforcement stiffness, and peak ground acceleration on the cyclic response of reinforced soil retaining walls were investigated. After analyzing the wall response for end of construction and dynamic excitation phases, it was determined that the deformations and reinforcement tensile loads increased during the cyclic load application and that the amount of additional deformation that occurred during cyclic load application was strongly related to backfill soil type, facing type, reinforcement type and peak ground acceleration. It was determined that a cohesive backfill and geotextile reinforcement was a good combination to reduce the deformations of geosynthetic reinforced walls during cyclic loading for medium height walls.     

Spatial variations of precursory seismic quiescence observed in recent years in the eastern part of Turkey

A statistical analysis is made for the eastern part of Turkey in the beginning of 2009 by studying the phenomenon of seismic quiescence as a potential precursor of the main shocks. The results produced four areas having seismic quiescence in the beginning of 2009. These areas are observed to be centered at 39.96°N–40.69°E (around A?kale, Erzurum), 39.36°N–39.74°E (around Ovac?k, Tunceli), 39.02°N–40.52°E (including Elaz?? and Bingöl), and 38.45°N–42.94°E (Van Lake). Based on the recent results showing 5 ± 1.5 years quiescence before the occurrence of an earthquake in this region, the future earthquake would be expected between 2009.5 and 2010.5. The future earthquake occurrence may reach 2012 if we consider the standard deviation of average seismic quiescence as ±1.5 years. We have found that the M _W = 6.0 Elaz?? earthquake on 8 March 2010, followed a seismic quiescence starting about 5 years before the main shock. Thus, special interest should be given to the other regions where the seismic quiescence is observed.