基于GNSS浮标和验潮资料的HY-2A卫星高度计绝对定标

为探测我国HY-2A卫星高度计海面高测量绝对偏差及其在轨运行状态,本文利用GNSS浮标星下点同步测量和验潮资料海面高传递方法在山东千里岩和珠海担杆岛海域开展定标研究。为验证GNSS浮标定标方法的准确性,还对国外卫星Jason-2和Saral进行了定标实验。实验表明GNSS浮标绝对海面高测量精度达2 cm,对Jason-2和Saral高度计多个周期定标得到的海面高偏差均值分别为5.7 cm和-2.3 cm,与国际专门定标场的结果符合较好。2014年9月和2015年5月HY-2A卫星高度计浮标定标结果分别是-65 cm和-91 cm,因两次结果差异显著,故又利用千里岩验潮站资料对HY-2A卫星高度计第56至73周期进行了定标分析,结果证明HY-2A卫星海面高存在约-51 cm/a的漂移,置信度为95%的回归分析表明浮标和验潮定标结果符合。本文研究结果表明在我国尚无专门定标场的情况下,可利用GNSS浮标对我国高度计实施灵活、精准的在轨绝对定标,在有高度计轨迹经过验潮站的情况下可使用验潮资料结合精密大地水准面模型进行绝对定标。     

一种基于实景图像的低能见度识别算法

为了利用大量视频监控设备提高能见度数据采集密度,提出一种基于实景图像转换的、采用简单卷积神经网络分类提取能见度等级的算法。该算法假设视频设备水平安装且具备开阔视野, 对原始视频图像进行水平分块,提取各分块的梯度、饱和度和亮度信息组成新的图像,基于简单卷积神经网络建模。采用2019年9月—2020年12月上海洋山港气象站29668张视频图像进行训练,建立识别模型,并采用2021年1—5月5757张视频图像对模型进行测试。采用该算法建立的模型参考雾的预报等级(GB/T 27964—2011)将能见度分为5个等级进行检验,白天准确率为87.99%,夜间准确率为81.32%,优于直接采用AlexNet模型。对1000 m以下低能见度天气的识别准确率达95%以上。利用现有的视频摄像头,可有效弥补气象站点能见度仪数据不足的问题,在气象业务上有一定的应用价值。     

Comparative study of As,Cd, Cu,Cr, Mg,Mn, Ni,Pb and Zn concentrations between sediment and water from estuary and port

The contents of As, Cd, Cu, Cr, Mg, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn have been determined in sediment and water samples from Valle de las Garzas estuary and Port Manzanillo (Colima, Mexico) using ICP-AES. The concentrations of these elements were used for a comparative study to determine the distribution of heavy metals and to evaluate which elements reflect natural or anthropogenic backgrounds. For this purpose, seven sampling points were selected: Four of them correspond to the lagoon, and three were situated in the port. Statistical analysis of the mineral content was assessed. Initially, data comparison was assessed by statistical tests for each variable. Principal component analysis was then applied considering the influence of all variables at the same time by obtaining the distribution of samples according to their scores in the principal component space. In this way, four studies were carried out: (1) study of sediments collected during the dry season; (2) study of sediments collected during the rainy season; (3) comparative study between sediments from rainy and dry season; and (4) study of water composition collected during rainy season. From the results of the performed analyses, it can be concluded that metals distribution pattern reflected natural and anthropogenic backgrounds (e.g., sediments from the lagoon, situated at the beginning of the rain channel, presented high contents of Zn and Cu, perhaps related to anthropogenic activities or the influence of igneous sediments).     

条件非线性最优扰动在可预报性问题研究中的应用

本文总结了近年来条件非线性最优扰动方法的应用研究的主要进展.主要包括四个方面:(1)将条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法拓展到既考虑初始扰动又考虑模式参数扰动,形成了拓展的CNOP方法.拓展的CNOP方法不仅能够应用于研究分别由初始误差和模式参数误差导致的可预报性问题,而且能够用于探讨初始误差和模式参数误差同时存在的情形;(2)将拓展的CNOP方法分别应用于ENSO和黑潮可预报性研究,考察了初始误差和模式参数误差对其可预报性的影响,揭示了初始误差在导致ENSO和黑潮大弯曲路径预报不确定性中的重要作用;(3)考察了阻塞事件发生的最优前期征兆(OPR)以及导致其预报不确定性的最优增长初始误差(OGR),揭示了OPR和OGR空间模态及其演变机制的相似性及其局地性特征;(4)研究了台风预报的目标观测问题,用CNOP方法确定了台风预报的目标观测敏感区,通过观测系统模拟试验(OSSEs)和/或观测系统试验(OSEs),表明了CNOP敏感区在改进台风预报中的有效性.具体地,台风OGR的主要误差分布在某一特定区域,空间分布具有明显的局地性特征,在台风OGR的局地性区域增加观测,有效改进了台风的预报技巧,该区域代表了台风预报的初值敏感区.事实上,上述El Ni(n)o事件、黑潮路径变异以及阻塞事件的OGR的空间分布也具有明显的局地性特征,这些事件的OGR刻画的局地性区域可能也代表了初值敏感区.     

Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market

How does financial performance risk affect investments in low-carbon electricity-generating technologies to achieve climate policy targets? A detailed risk simulation of price formation in the Great Britain wholesale power market is used to show that the increasing replacement of fossil facilities with wind, ceteris paribus, may cause a deterioration of the financial risk–return performance metrics for incremental investments. Low-carbon investments appear to be high risk, low return, and as such may require a progressively higher level of support over time than envisaged by the conventional degression trajectories. The increasing riskiness of the wholesale market will to some extent offset the benefits of lower capital costs and operational efficiencies if investors need to satisfy cautious debt coverage ratios alongside positive expected returns. This increased risk is additional to the well-known ‘merit order effect’ of low-carbon investments progressively depressing wholesale prices and hence their expected investment returns.

Policy relevance

Policy support for renewable technologies such as wind is usually based upon levelized costs and is expected to reduce over time as capital costs and operational efficiencies improve. However, levelized costs do not take full account of the risk aversion that investors may have in practice. Expected policy support reductions may be moderated to some extent by the increased financial performance risk that intermittent technologies bring to the power market. The annual risk-return profiles for incremental investments deteriorate for all technologies as wind replaces fossil fuels. This extra risk premium will need to be incorporated into evaluating policy incentives for new investments in a decarbonizing power market.     

重庆强对流短临业务评分方法

结合重庆本地实际情况,以区/县为单位对强对流中出现的短历时强降水、阵性大风及雷电进行业务质量定量评估.短历时强降水、阵性大风基于加密站观测资料采用分级的方式来评定,对雷电的评定基于ADTD系统观测到地闪资料并判断所在区/县是否有地闪出现.介绍了重庆本地强对流短临业务评分方法及开发的评分软件.从2011年的评分结果看,该评分方法在重庆本地是比较合理的,在业务应用上是可行的.     

A new lunar absolute control point: established by images from the landing camera on Chang'e-3

The establishment of a lunar control network is one of the core tasks in selenodesy, in which defining an absolute control point on the Moon is the most important step. However, up to now, the number of absolute control points has been very sparse. These absolute control points have mainly been lunar laser ranging retroreflectors, whose geographical location can be observed by observations on Earth and also identified in high resolution lunar satellite images. The Chang'e-3(CE-3) probe successfully landed on the Moon, and its geographical location has been monitored by an observing station on Earth. Since its positional accuracy is expected to reach the meter level, the CE-3 landing site can become a new high precision absolute control point. We use a sequence of images taken from the landing camera, as well as satellite images taken by CE-1 and CE-2, to identify the location of the CE-3 lander. With its geographical location known, the CE-3 landing site can be established as a new absolute control point, which will effectively expand the current area of the lunar absolute control network by 22%, and can greatly facilitate future research in the field of lunar surveying and mapping, as well as selenodesy.     

某核电厂附近海域生态环境特征及潜在致灾生物研究

为了了解某核电厂周边海域的生态环境状况,筛选潜在威胁核电厂冷源安全的致灾生物,分析影响致灾生物时空分布的主要环境因素,本研究于2018年进行了4个季节的生态调查。结果表明,研究海域浮游植物密度秋季最高,春季优势种为东海原甲藻(Prorocentrumdonghaiense),其他季节优势种为中肋骨条藻(Skeletonema costatum)等硅藻。浮游动物密度夏季最高,以桡足类为主,春、夏季优势种还包括球型侧腕水母(Pleurobrachiaglobosa)和薮枝螅水母(Obeliasp.)。底栖动物的密度和生物量在秋季最高,优势种主要为豆形短眼蟹(Xenophthalmus pinnotheroides)、长吻沙蚕(Glycera chirori)和丝异须虫(Heteromastusfiliforms)。浮游植物、浮游动物和底栖动物群落均在夏季最为稳定,群落多样性水平和物种丰度较高,且分布较为均匀。浮游植物群落的细胞丰度与悬浮物和磷酸盐的浓度正相关性最高。浮游动物的密度受温度和盐度的影响较大。底栖动物的群落分布主要受悬浮物和无机营养盐的浓度影响。本研究共筛选出17种威胁该核电厂冷...     

基于动力学震源模型的三维沉积盆地直下型断层地震动模拟

沉积盆地与近断层地震共同作用会增加地震破坏的风险水平,尤其是盆地下方直下型断层发震情况。采用动力学震源模型刻画断层破裂发震过程,开展沉积盆地直下型断层谱元法地震动模拟研究,探讨不同断层面初始剪应力和成核区位置下三维沉积盆地地表响应规律。研究结果表明,断层面应力降对盆地地表地震动的影响显著,在断层面强度一定的情况下,随着初始剪应力的增大,即应力降增大,盆地地表峰值响应增大,原因在于应力降的改变影响了断层破裂释放能量,进而引起断层破裂速度改变,最终导致盆地地表响应发生变化;改变断层面成核区位置会对盆地内部地震动分布规律产生影响,当成核区位置从断层中间向断层左侧移动时,盆地左侧地震动逐渐减小,而右侧地震动逐渐增大,最终表现为盆地右侧地震动显著高于盆地左侧,原因在于改变成核区位置后,导致近断层地震动的方向性效应发生变化。     

层序地层与岩相古地理编图——以中国南方泥盆纪地层为例

岩相古地理及古地理学的研究,在我国已有相当长的历史并有着十分丰硕的成果。各家以不同的理论为指导、采取不同的编图方法,从不同的研究角度编制了中国的岩相古地理图。