A generalized additive model for the spatial distribution of snowpack in the Spanish Pyrenees

A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to model the spatial distribution of snow depth in the central Spanish Pyrenees. Statistically significant non‐linear relationships were found between distinct location and topographical variables and the average depth of the April snowpack at 76 snow poles from 1985 to 2000. The joint effect of the predictor variables explained more than 73% of the variance of the dependent variable. The performance of the model was assessed by applying a number of quantitative approaches to the residuals from a cross‐validation test. The relatively low estimated errors and the possibility of understanding the processes that control snow accumulation, through the response curves of each independent variable, indicate that GAMs may be a useful tool for interpolating local snow depth or other climate parameters. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrogeochemical balance of forest umbrisol profiles (‘Sierra de Gata’, central western Spain)

Three techniques for obtaining soil water solutions (gravitational and matrical waters extracted using both in situ tension lysimeters and in vitro pressure chambers) and their later chemical analysis were performed in order to know the evolution of the soil‐solution composition when water moves down through the soil, from the Ah soil horizon to the BwC‐ or C‐horizons of forest soils located in western Spain. Additionally, ion concentrations and water volumes of input waters to soil (canopy washout) and exported waters (drainage solutions from C‐horizons) were determined to establish the net balance of solutes in order to determine the rates of leaching or retention of ions. A generalized process of sorption or retention of most components (even Cl^?) was observed, from the soil surface to the C‐horizon, in both gravitational and matrical waters, with H₄SiO₄, Mn²⁺, Na⁺, and SO₄^2? being the net exported components from the soil through the groundwater. These results enhance the role of the recycling effect in these forest soils. The net percentages of elements retained in these forest soils, considering the inputs and the outputs balance, were 68% K⁺, 85% Ca²⁺, 58% Mg²⁺, 7% Al³⁺, 5% Fe³⁺, 34% Zn²⁺, 57% Cl^?, and 20% NO₃^?, and about 75% of dissolved organic carbon was mineralized. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pre-Breakdown Processes in the Hollow Cathode Region of a Transient Hollow Cathode Discharge

Discharge formation in the A–K space of transient hollow cathode discharge (THCD) is causally linked with the emission of high energy electron beams originating in the hollow cathode region (HCR). Ionization in the A–K gap proceeds through the formation of a moving virtual anode, whose time evolution is strongly correlated with different periods in the electron beam activity. Here, we report on time and space resolved observations of different ionization events inside the HCR, which are time correlated with ionization processes inside the A–K gap. The experiments have been performed in Hydrogen, at pressures between 50 and 400 mTorr. A statistical study of the characteristic times associated with the different ionization events, based on von Laue plots, shows that the time distribution of events is well described by a single Gaussian distribution.     

Search for long term variations of the interplanetary magnetic field

A statistical study is made of the long term variations of the interplanetary magnetic field parameters collected in the years 1964 to 1973 by 12 spacecraft (IMP's, Pioneers and HEOS). Although temporal fluctuations are observed on field components and magnitudes no clear solar cycle variation is found. The same conclusion holds for the statistical distributions and variances of these parameters. A search for possible heliographic latitude effects on the field also leads to a negative conclusion.     

Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project

Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based on the statistical relationship between bed nights and a climate-related index of human comfort, after accounting for other determinants of bed nights such as income and prices. It is concluded that climate change could have significant impacts on the regional distribution of the physical resources supporting tourism in Europe. For example, in summer, Southern Europe could experience climate conditions that are less favourable to tourism than the current climate, while countries in the North could enjoy better conditions. The economic effects of these changes are likely to be sizeable, albeit difficult to assess. Crucially, they are shown to depend on tourists’ temporal flexibility with respect to holiday planning. The greater the prominence of institutional rigidities such as school holidays, the larger the differences between winning and losing regions in terms of economic impact.     

Wind measurements in Mars' middle atmosphere: IRAM Plateau de Bure interferometric CO observations

The IRAM Plateau de Bure Interferometer has been used to map the CO(1-0) rotational line in Mars' middle atmosphere. Absolute winds and thermal profiles were retrieved during the 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 planet's oppositions. The observations sampled various seasons (Ls=143, 196, 262, 317 and 322), and different dust situations (clear, global storm, regional storm). The absolute winds were derived by measuring directly the Doppler lineshifts. The main zonal circulation near 50 km is dominated by strong retrograde winds, with typical velocities of 70-170 m/s, strongly varying seasonally, latitudinally, and longitudinally (in particular between morning and evening). Comparison of the retrieved temperature with a general circulation model indicates that the model often underestimates the temperatures in the middle (20-50 km) atmosphere, and overestimates them above 50 km.     

TNOs are Cool: A Survey of the Transneptunian Region

Over one thousand objects have so far been discovered orbiting beyond Neptune. These trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) represent the primitive remnants of the planetesimal disk from which the planets formed and are perhaps analogous to the unseen dust parent-bodies in debris disks observed around other main-sequence stars. The dynamical and physical properties of these bodies provide unique and important constraints on formation and evolution models of the Solar System. While the dynamical architecture in this region (also known as the Kuiper Belt) is becoming relatively clear, the physical properties of the objects are still largely unexplored. In particular, fundamental parameters such as size, albedo, density and thermal properties are difficult to measure. Measurements of thermal emission, which peaks at far-IR wavelengths, offer the best means available to determine the physical properties. While Spitzer has provided some results, notably revealing a large albedo diversity in this population, the increased sensitivity of Herschel and its superior wavelength coverage should permit profound advances in the field. Within our accepted project we propose to perform radiometric measurements of 139 objects, including 25 known multiple systems. When combined with measurements of the dust population beyond Neptune (e.g. from the New Horizons mission to Pluto), our results will provide a benchmark for understanding the Solar debris disk, and extra-solar ones as well.     

Large Dust Grains Around Cometary Nuclei

Large amounts of particles ejected from the nucleus surface are present in the vicinity of the cometary nuclei when comets are near the Sun (at heliocentric distances ≤2 AU). The largest dust grains ejected may constitute a hazard for spatial vehicles. We tried to obtain the bounded orbits of those particles and to investigate their stability along several orbital periods. The model includes the solar and the cometary gravitational forces and the solar radiation pressure force. The nucleus is assumed to be spherical. The dust grains are also assumed to be spherical, and radially ejected. We include the effects of centrifugal forces owing to the comet rotation. An expression for the most heavy particles that can be lifted is proposed. Using the usual values adopted for the case of Halley’s comet, the largest grains that can be lifted have a diameter about 5 cm, and the term due to the rotation is negligible. However, that term increases the obtained value for the maximum diameter of the lifted grain in a significant amount when the rotation period is of the order of a few hours.     

Geomorphology, Stratigraphy, and Radiocarbon Chronology of LlanquihueDrift in the Area of the Southern Lake District, Seno Reloncaví, and Isla Grande de Chiloé, Chile

Glacial geomorphologic features composed of (or cut into) Llanquihue drift delineate former Andean piedmont glaciers in the region of the southern Chilean Lake District, Seno Reloncav', Golfo de Ancud, and northern Golfo Corcovado during the last glaciation. These landforms include extensive moraine belts, main and subsidiary outwash plains, kame terraces, and meltwater spillways. Numerous radiocarbon dates document Andean ice advances into the moraine belts during the last glacial maximum (LGM) at 29,363–29,385 ¹⁴C yr BP , 26,797 ¹⁴C yr BP , 22,295–22,570 ¹⁴C yr BP , and 14,805–14,869 ¹⁴C yr BP . Advances may also have culminated at close to 21,000 ¹⁴C yr BP , shortly before 17,800 ¹⁴C yr BP , and shortly before 15,730 ¹⁴C yr BP . The maximum at 22,295–22,567 ¹⁴C yr BP was probably the most extensive of the LGM in the northern part of the field area, whereas that at 14,805–14,869 ¹⁴C yr BP was the most extensive in the southern part. Snowline depression during these maxima was about 1000 m. Andean piedmont glaciers did not advance into the outer Llanquihue moraine belts during the portion of middle Llanquihue time between 29,385 ¹⁴C yr BP and more than 39,660 ¹⁴C yr BP . In the southern part of the field area, the Golfo de Ancud lobe, as well as the Golfo Corcovado lobe, achieved a maximum at the outermost Llanquihue moraine prior to 49,892 ¹⁴C yr BP . Pollen analysis of the Taiquemmire, which is located on this moraine, suggests that the old Llanquihue advance probably corresponds to the time of marine isotope stage 4. The implication is that the Andean snowline was then depressed as much as during the LGM. A Llanquihue-age glacier expansion into the outer moraine belts also occurred more than about 40,000 ¹⁴C yr BP for the Lago Llanquihue piedmont glacier.     

Interhemispheric Linkage of Paleoclimate During the Last Glaciation

Combined glacial geologic and palynologic data from the southern Lake District, Seno Reloncaví, and Isla Grande de Chiloé in middle latitudes (40°35’–42°25’S) of the Southern Hemisphere Andes suggest (1) that full-glacial or near-full-glacial climate conditions persisted from about 29,400 to 14,550 ¹⁴C yr BP in late Llanquihue time, (2) that within this late Llanquihue interval mean summer temperature was depressed 6°–8°C compared to modern values during major glacier advances into the outer moraine belt at 29,400, 26,760, 22,295–22,570, and 14,550–14,805 ¹⁴C yr BP , (3) that summer temperature depression was as great during early Llanquihue as during late Llanquihue time, (4) that climate deteriorated from warmer conditions during the early part to colder conditions during the later part of middle Llanquihue time, (5) that superimposed on long-term climate deterioration are Gramineae peaks on Isla Grande de Chiloé that represent cooling at 44,520–47,110 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-11), 32,105–35,764 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-9), 24,895–26,019 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-7), 21,430–22,774 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-5), and 13,040–15,200 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-3), (6) that the initial phase of the glacial/interglacial transition of the last termination involved at least two major steps, one beginning at 14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP and another at 12,700–13,000 ¹⁴ C yr BP , and (7) that a late-glacial climate reversal of ≥2–3° C set in close to 12,200 ¹⁴C yr BP , after an interval of near-interglacial warmth, and continued into Younger Dryas time. The late-glacial climate signal from the southern Chilean Lake District ties into that from proglacial Lago Mascardi in the nearby Argentine Andes, which shows rapid ice recession peaking at 12,400 ¹⁴C yr BP , followed by a reversal of trend that culminated in Younger-Dryas-age glacier readvance at 11,400–10,200 ¹⁴C yr BP . Many full- and late-glacial climate shifts in the southern Lake District match those from New Zealand at nearly the same Southern Hemisphere middle latitudes. At the last glacial maximum (LGM), snowline lowering relative to present-day values was nearly the same in the Southern Alps (875 m) and the Chilean Andes (1000 m). Particularly noteworthy are the new Younger-Dryas-age exposure dates of the Lake Misery moraines in Arthur's Pass in the Southern Alps. Moreover, pollen records from the Waikato lowlands on North Island show that a major vegetation shift at close to 14,700 ¹⁴C yr BP marked the beginning of the last glacial/interglacial transition (Newnham et al. 1989). The synchronous and nearly uniform lowering of snowlines in Southern Hemisphere middle-latitude mountains compared with Northern Hemisphere values suggests global cooling of about the same magnitude in both hemispheres at the LGM. When compared with paleoclimate records from the North Atlantic region, the middle-latitude Southern Hemisphere terrestrial data imply interhemispheric symmetry of the structure and timing of the last glacial/interglacial transition. In both regions atmospheric warming pulses are implicated near the beginning of Oldest Dryas time (～14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP) and near the Oldest Dryas/Bölling transition (～12,700–13,000 ¹⁴ C yr BP ). The second of these warming pulses was coincident with resumption of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation similar to that of the modern mode, with strong formation of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water in the Nordic Seas. In both regions, the maximum Bölling-age warmth was achieved at 12,200–12,500 ¹⁴ C yr BP , and was followed by a reversal in climate trend. In the North Atlantic region, and possibly in middle latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, this reversal culminated in a Younger-Dryas-age cold pulse. Although changes in ocean circulation can redistribute heat between the hemispheres, they cannot alone account either for the synchronous planetary cooling of the LGM or for the synchronous interhemispheric warming steps of the abrupt glacial-to-interglacial transition. Instead, the dominant interhemispheric climate linkage must feature a global atmospheric signal. The most likely source of this signal is a change in the greenhouse content of the atmosphere. We speculate that the Oldest Dryas warming pulse originated from an increase in atmospheric water-vapor production by half-precession forcing in the tropics. The major thermohaline switch near the Oldest Dryas/Bölling transition then couldhave triggered another increase in tropical water-vapor production to near-interglacial values.