Description and validation of a two-step analogue/regression downscaling method

This study describes a two-step analogue statistical downscaling method for daily temperature and precipitation. The first step is an analogue approach: the “n” days most similar to the day to be downscaled are selected. In the second step, a multiple regression analysis using the “n” most analogous days is performed for temperature, whereas for precipitation, the probability distribution of the “n” analogous days is used to define the amount of precipitation. Verification of this method has been carried out for the Spanish Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Results show good performance for temperature (BIAS close to 0.1 °C and mean absolute errors around 1.9 °C) and an acceptable skill for precipitation (reasonably low BIAS except in autumn with a mean of ?18 %, mean absolute error lower than for a reference simulation, i.e. persistence and a well-simulated probability distribution according to two non-parametric tests of similarity).     

Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty

Climate change is forecasted to increase the variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Due to potential adverse impacts on crop yields it will have implications for demand of agricultural risk management instruments and farmers’ adaptation strategies. Evidence on climate change impacts on crop yield variability and estimates of production risk from farm surveys in Australia, Canada and Spain, are used to analyse the policy choice between three different types of insurance (individual, area-yield and weather index) and ex post payments. The results are found to be subject to strong uncertainties and depend on the risk profile of different farmers and locations; the paper provides several insights on how to analyse these complexities. In general, area yield performs best more often across our countries and scenarios, in particular for the baseline and marginal climate change (without increases in extreme events). However, area yield can be very expensive if farmers have limited information on how climate change affects yields (misalignment in expectations), and particularly so under extreme climate change scenarios. In these more challenging cases, ex post payments perform well to increase low incomes when the risk is systemic like in Australia; Weather index performs well to reduce the welfare costs of risks when the correlation between yields and index is increased by the extreme events. The paper also analyses the robustness of different instruments in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of different climate change scenarios; highlighting that this added layer of uncertainty could be overcome to provide sound policy advice under uncertainties introduced by climate change. The role of providing information to farmers on impacts of climate change emerges as a crucial result of this paper as indicated by the significantly higher budgetary expenditures occurring across all instruments when farmers’ expectations are misaligned relative to actual impacts of climate change.     

Spectroscopic Observations of the 2011 Draconids Meteor Shower

Some past October Draconid shower meteoroids fell apart in a spray of fragments at the end of their trajectory before slowing down, from which it was concluded that these were among the most fragile meteoroids known. In those instances, the dust could not be reliably traced to a particular return of the parent comet 21P/Giaconini-Zinner. On October 8th, 2011, Earth was predicted to transverse the 1900 A.D. dust ejecta of the comet. In 1900, the comet’s perihelion distance first moved significantly inwards to the Sun and ejection conditions could have been unusual. An airborne observing campaign was organized, with several teams contributing imaging and spectrographic cameras to study the manner in which these meteoroids released the volatile element sodium during the ablation process in the Earth’s atmosphere. IMCCE, ESA, and the SETI Institute contributed spectrographic cameras based on low-light WATEC 902H2 Ultimate, low-light LCC1, and GenII XX1332 image intensified cameras. An outburst was observed, much as predicted. Despite a lack of bright meteors, a total of 15 Draconid spectra were recorded. All show evidence of an early release of sodium. The loss of sodium was observed to coincide with the formation of a distinct wake of fragments. The observations show that 21P/Giacobini-Zinner ejected fragile meteoroids during the return in 1900. Those grains may have lost some sodium even before impacting Earth.     

The Imaging and Slitless Spectroscopy Instrument for Surveys (ISSIS): expected radiometric performance,operation modes and data handling

ISSIS is the instrument for imaging and slitless spectroscopy on-board WSO-UV. In this article, a detailed comparison between ISSIS expected radiometric performance and other ultraviolet instruments is shown. In addition, we present preliminary information on the performance verification tests and on the foreseen procedures for in-flight operation and data handling.     

Ionospheric Disturbances and Their Impact on IPS Using MEXART Observations

We study the impact of ionospheric disturbances on the Earth’s environment caused by the solar events that occurred from 20 April to 31 May 2010, using observations from the Mexican Array Radio Telescope (MEXART). During this period of time, several astronomical sources presented fluctuations in their radio signals. Wavelet analysis, together with complementary information such as the vertical total electron content (vTEC) and the Dst index, were used to identify and understand when the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) could be contaminated by ionospheric disturbances (IOND). We find that radio signal perturbations were sometimes associated with IOND and/or IPS fluctuations; however, in some cases, it was not possible to clearly identify their origin. Our Fourier and wavelet analyses showed that these fluctuations had frequencies in the range ≈?0.01 Hz?–?≈?1.0 Hz (periodicities of 100 s to 1 s).     

Optical Measurements in an Exploding Wire Experiment

We present optical measurements (Shadow and Schlieren pictures) of a 12.5 Joule exploding wire experiment. After performing a large number of shots some sort of time evolution can be reconstructed from the pictures. The pictures were taken during the dark phase (zero current) and the plasma phase. Although the electrical signals are quite reproducible from shot to shot (allowing a good time correlation and indicating that the global dynamics is reproducible) we observed that the individual details are quite different, probably due to the non-uniformity of the wire. We observed a uniform expansion (the volume increases almost linearly with time) with the presence of surface instabilities and there is no evident difference in the density distribution between the dark and the plasma phases. Finally, we derive a mean radius and velocity evolution with time and an approximate energy balance.     

The atmospheric extinction at the complejo astronómico el leoncito and the Bosque Alegre station

The first-and second-order extinction coefficients in theUBVRI and DDO systems are derived for the first time at CASLEO. They define an extinction curve which is discussed in the framework of atmospheric absorption theory. From this curve the first-order extinction coefficients for the Washington and Strömgren systems are inferred. From a photometric point of view, CASLEO occupies a preferred place among the observatories of the world. A comparison of theUBV extinction coefficients obtained at Bosque Alegre with previous determinations supports the conclusion that the sky transparency at this station has deteriorated in the ultraviolet in the last years.Visting Astronomer, Complejo Astronómico El Leoncito operated under agreement between the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas de la República Argentina and the National Universities of La Plata, Córdoba y San Juan, Argentina.     

FIRST RESULTS FROM VIRGO,THE EXPERIMENT FOR HELIOSEISMOLOGY AND SOLAR IRRADIANCE MONITORING ON SOHO

First results from the VIRGO experiment (Variability of solar IRradiance and Gravity Oscillations) on the ESA/NASA Mission SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) are reported. The observations started mid-January 1996 for the radiometers and sunphotometers and near the end of March for the luminosity oscillation imager. The performance of all the instruments is very good, and the time series of the first 4–6 months are evaluated in terms of solar irradiance variability, solar background noise characteristics and p-mode oscillations. The solar irradiance is modulated by the passage of active regions across the disk, but not all of the modulation is straightforwardly explained in terms of sunspot flux blocking and facular enhancement. Helioseismic inversions of the observed p-mode frequencies are more-or-less in agreement with the latest standard solar models. The comparison of VIRGO results with earlier ones shows evidence that magnetic activity plays a significant role in the dynamics of the oscillations beyond its modulation of the resonant frequencies. Moreover, by comparing the amplitudes of different components ofp -mode multiplets, each of which are influenced differently by spatial inhomogeneity, we have found that activity enhances excitation.     

Sensitivity of the C and O production on the 3α rate

We investigate the dependence of the carbon and oxygen production in stars on the 3α rate by varying the energy of the 0⁺ ₂-state of ¹²C and determine the resulting yields for a selection of low-mass, intermediate-mass and massive stars. The yields are obtained using modern stellar evolution codes that follow the entire evolution of massive stars, including the supernova explosion, and consider in detail the 3^rd dredge-up process during the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch of low-mass and intermediate-mass stars. Our results show that the C and O production in massive stars depends strongly on the initial mass, and that it is crucial to follow the entire evolution. A rather strong C production during the He-shell flashes compared to quiescent He burning leads to a lower sensitivity of the C and O production in low-mass and intermediate-mass stars on the 3α-rate than predicted in our previous work. In particular, the C production of intermediate-mass stars seems to have a maximum close to the actual value of the 0⁺ ₂ energy level of ¹²C. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Thermal Decomposition of Ilmenite in a Non-Transferred Arc Thermal Plasma Flow Reactor

The thermal decomposition of ilmenite concentrates in a non-transferred arc thermal plasma flow reactor was investigated. The plasma torch was operated using argon-helium and argon-nitrogen mixtures as plasma gases. The effect of power, feed rate, and particle size was studied. Products were characterized by XRD, SEM, TEM and ICP techniques. Free energy minimization plots were used to predict the thermodynamic behavior of the system under different operating conditions. The results of this investigation showed a significant segregation process where titanium-rich products are collected in the reactor, while iron-rich products are collected in the quenching box and filter. The average size of the product is in the submicron range. Titanium nitride was formed and condensed in the reactor zone when using argon-nitrogen mixture as plasma gas.