Probabilistic assessment of travel times in groundwater modeling

A Monte Carlo approach is described for the quantification of uncertainty on travel time estimates. A real (non synthetic) and exhaustive data set of natural genesis is used for reference. Using an approach based on binary indicators, constraint interval data are easily accommodated in the modeling process. It is shown how the incorporation of imprecise data can reduce drastically the uncertainty in the estimates. It is also shown that unrealistic results are obtained when a deterministic modeling is carried out using a kriging estimate of the transmissivity field. Problems related with using sequential indicator simulation for the generation of fields incorporating constraint interval data are discussed. The final results consists of 95% probability intervals of arrival times at selected control planes reflecting the original uncertainty on the transmissivity maps.     

Quaternary reactivation of flexural-slip folds by diapiric activity: example from the western Ebro Basin (Spain)

In the western sector of the Ebro Basin two types of structures deform the Quaternary terraces and pediments developed by the Ebro River and its tributaries: (1) folds up to 10 km long in the lower levels of fluvial terraces and (2) normal listric faults that produce tilting and rollover anticlines of the Quaternary deposits. Both types of structures are linked to the geometrical and lithological features of the Tertiary beds that underlie the Quaternary deposits. Quaternary folds, whose axes are parallel to the strike of the Tertiary beds, are the result of reactivation of Tertiary large-scale (60 km long) folds due to diapirism of their gypsum cores, where the gypsum units reach a maximum thickness of 3 000 m. This reactivation produced flexural-slip in some beds on the limbs of the folds, bringing about the folding of the overlying Quaternary terraces. The mechanism of Quaternary folding involves layer-parallel shear in alternating Tertiary units and folding linked to detachments and reverse layer-parallel faults. Normal listric faults are widespread throughout the studied area. They are partly parallel to low dipping Tertiary beds and are the result of a NNE-SSW tectonic extension, compatible with minor structures and focal mechanisms of recent earthquakes. The relationship between the two kinds of Quaternary structures indicates that diapirism of the gypsum cores of the anticlines was activated by extensional tectonics.     

Determination of focal depth from macroseismic data

Summary Authors give a diagram and procedure based onKövesligethy's formula for determining focal depth from macroseismic data. The method has the advantages that a) it supplies all the constants characterising, the macroseismal area, b) the personal effects are reduced, c) only one diagram is necessary.     

Statistical analysis of the largest possible earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast for selected return periods

ABSTRACT

In this work, we have studied the largest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast by using the principles of Extreme Value Analysis based on its two approaches: Block Maxima and Peaks-over-Threshold. First, before modelling the recorded earthquakes, the K-means clustering technique was applied to determine a classification according to the level of magnitude of the earthquakes. Then, models based on the Extreme Value theory of earthquake magnitudes were developed for each of the four clusters that were found, and finally, the best-fitted models were those known as Fréchet and Gumbel ones. The zone with the greatest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast is located between the north of the province of Manabí and the south of the province of Esmeraldas, with a return period of 50 years for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.7 M_W.     

A Note on Second Species Solutions Generated from p–q Resonant Orbits

The first image under the flow of the restricted three-body problem of the p—q resonant strips — that appear in the study of the p—q resonant orbits — do not have, in general, intersection with the strip. In this paper we show some particular situations in which the above intersections exist for some very simple p—q resonant orbits which, at the same time, are periodic second species solutions.This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Hydraulics of recirculating well pairs for ground water remediation

Recirculating well pairs are a proven means of implementing bioremediation and may also be useful for applying other in situ ground water remediation technologies. A bromide tracer test was performed to characterize the hydraulic performance of a recirculating well pair installed at Moffett Field, California. In particular, we estimate two important properties of the recirculating well pair: (1) the fraction of captured water that is recycled between the wells, and (2) the travel-time distribution of ground water in the induced zone of recirculation. We also develop theoretical estimates of these two properties and demonstrate they depend upon a dimensionless pumping rate, denoted xi. The bromide breakthrough curve predicted from theory agrees well with that determined experimentally at Moffett Field. The minimum travel time between the wells is denoted t(min). In theory, t(min) depends inversely on Q, the pumping rate in the recirculating wells, and is proportional to a2, the square of the distance between the wells. Both the experimental and theoretical travel-time distributions indicate that at least half the recirculating water travels between the wells along fast flowpaths (travel time < 2*t(min)). Therefore, when designing recirculating well pairs, engineers should ensure that t(min) will be sufficiently high to allow biologically mediated reactions (or other in situ remediation processes) sufficient time to proceed.     

Flow direction and magnetic mineralogy of lava flows from the central parts of the Peninsula of Baja California,Mexico

Magnetic properties of two apparently unrelated lava suites (one tholeiitic and the other alkalic) coexisting in the central parts of the Peninsula of Baja California, Mexico, were measured in this study. Macroscopic indicators and measurements of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) were combined to infer the flow direction on those lavas. These measurements were used to investigate the likelihood of the existence of an abnormally long tholeiitic lava flow in this part of the Peninsula. The obtained results indicate that the tholeiitic flows in the region constitute regular length flows, and are likely to have been issued through vents located within the area of study. Additionally, comparison of the magnetic signature of tholeiitic and alkalic lavas reveals a systematic difference in some of the magnetic parameters (bulk susceptibility and Curie temperatures). In particular, it is proposed that the narrow range of Curie temperatures characteristic of each lava type can be used as a reliable proxy for the identification of each lava type in the region. All of these findings show that the alkalic and tholeiitic lavas of the region are more closely related to each other than previously suspected.Editorial responsibility: R. Cioni     

Groundwater recharge in a sedimentary basin in semi-arid Mexico

Recharge mechanisms and the hydrochemical evolution of groundwater in a semi-arid, 6,840-km², intermountain basin in central Mexico were investigated using stable isotopes and major chemical constituents. Ionic ratio analysis helped to conceptualize and quantify in part the subsequent geochemical evolution in the aquifer system. Mass balance models (PHREEQC) were used to interpret and rectify the geochemical properties of the aquifer. The recharge conditions have not changed noticeably during the last several thousands of years. The recharge mechanisms are accompanied by leaching of meteoric salts on and near the ground surface during major rain events, which previously accumulated after minor rain events. Rapid and diffuse infiltration can be excluded. Indirect infiltration from wadis (arroyos) and depressions (playas) with little mixing in shallow groundwater contrasts with a high degree of mixing for water with deep circulation. The prevailing source of major cations (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺) is weathering of carbonates and albite, followed by exchange reactions on clays and hydroxides. Ca²⁺/Na⁺ exchange may interchange along the flow path with reverse (Na⁺/Ca²⁺) exchange, although the Ca²⁺/Na⁺ option is prevalent. Meteoric Ca and Mg inputs are relatively small; however, meteoric Na is insignificant. Irrigation return flow plays an important role in the western part of the study area, giving rise to elevated sulfate and chloride concentrations.

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Resumen Se han investigado los mecanismos de recarga y la evolución hidroquímica de las aguas subterráneas en una cuenca semiárida e intermontanosa de México central, de 6.840 km². Para ello, se han utilizado isótopos estables y los constituyentes químicos mayores. El análisis de las relaciones iónicas ha servido para conceptuar y cuantificar en parte su evolución geoquímica posterior dentro del sistema acuífero. Se ha recurrido a modelos de balance de masas (PHREEQC) para interpretar y rectificar las propiedades geoquímicas del acuífero. Las condiciones de recarga no han cambiado de forma apreciable durante los últimos miles de años. Los mecanismos de recarga se ven acompañados por el lixiviado de las sales meteóricas sobre y cerca de la superficie del terreno durante los episodios principales de lluvia, las cuales son acumuladas en episodios menores de lluvia. Se puede excluir la infiltración rápida y difusa. La infiltración indirecta desde arroyos ( wadis) y depresiones ( playas), que apenas se mezcla con las aguas subterráneas someras, contrasta con un elevado nivel de mezcla con el agua de circulación profunda. La fuente dominante de cationes mayores (calcio, magnesio, sodio, potasio) es la meteorización de los carbonatos y albita, mientras que las reacciones de intercambio en las arcillas e hidróxidos son menos importantes. El intercambio ión calcio-ión sodio puede ser reemplazado a lo largo de una línea de flujo por el intercambio opuesto (ión sodio-ión calcio), aunque la primera es prioritaria. Las aportaciones meteóricas de calcio y magnesio son relativamente pequeñas, mientras que la de sodio es insignificante. Los retornos de riego desempeñan un papel importante en la parte occidental del área de estudio, dando lugar a concentraciones elevadas de sulfato y cloruro.

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Résumé Les mécanismes de recharge et lévolution hydrochimique de leau souterraine dans un bassin de montagne de 6 840 km² en zone semi-aride, dans le centre du Mexique, ont été étudiés au moyen des isotopes stables et des composés chimiques majeurs. Lanalyse des rapports ioniques a aidé à conceptualiser et à quantifier en partie lévolution géochimique qui en résulte, dans le système aquifère. Des modèles de bilan de masse (PHREEQC) ont été utilisés pour interpréter et corriger les propriétés de laquifère. Les conditions de recharge nont pas changé notablement au cours des derniers millénaires. Les mécanismes de recharge sont accompagnés, durant les épisodes majeurs de précipitation, dun lessivage, à la surface du sol et à son voisinage, de sels météoriques accumulés auparavant pendant les petits épisodes de pluie. Linfiltration rapide et diffuse peut être exclue. Linfiltration indirecte à partir des oueds (arroyos) et des dépressions (playas) avec un faible mélange dans la nappe superficielle contraste avec le degré élevé de mélange de leau avec les circulations profondes. La source prépondérante des cations majeurs (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺) est laltération des carbonates et des feldspaths ; léchange de cations avec les argiles et les hydroxydes est moins important. Léchange de Ca²⁺ avec Na⁺ peut sinverser le long des axes découlements pour donner un échange de Na⁺ avec Ca²⁺, bien que le cas Ca²⁺/Na⁺ soit prépondérant. Les apports météoriques de Ca et de Mg sont relativement faibles, cependant que celui de Na météorique est insignifiant. Lécoulement par retour dirrigation joue un rôle important dans la partie occidentale de la région étudiée, produisant un accroissement des concentrations élevées en sulfate et en chlorure.