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Urban floods pose a societal and economical risk. This study evaluated the risk and hydro-meteorological conditions that cause pluvial flooding in coastal cities in a cold climate. Twenty years of insurance claims data and up to 97 years of meteorological data were analysed for Reykjavík, Iceland (64.15°N; <100 m above sea level). One third of the city's wastewater collection system is combined, and pipe grades vary from 0.5% to 10%. Results highlight semi-intensive rain (<7 mm/h; ≤3 year return period) in conjunction with snow and frozen ground as the main cause for urban flood risk in a climate which undergoes frequent snow and frost cycles (avg. 13 and 19 per season, respectively). Floods in winter were more common, more severe and affected a greater number of neighbourhoods than during summer. High runoff volumes together with debris remobilized with high winds challenged the capacity of wastewater systems regardless of their age or type (combined vs. separate). The two key determinants for the number of insurance claims were antecedent frost depth and total precipitation volume per event. Two pluvial regimes were particularly problematic: long duration (13–25 h), late peaking rain on snow (RoS), where snowmelt enhanced the runoff intensity, elongated and connected independent rainfall into a singular, more voluminous (20–76 mm) event; shorter duration (7–9 h), more intensive precipitation that evolved from snow to rain. Closely timed RoS and cooling were believed to trigger frost formation. A positive trend was detected in the average seasonal snow depth and volume of rain and snowmelt during RoS events. More emphasis, therefore, needs to be placed on designing and operating urban drainage infrastructure with regard to RoS co-acting with frozen ground. Furthermore, more detailed, routine monitoring of snow and soil conditions is important to predict RoS flood events. 相似文献
64.
A reconstruction of the palaeohydrological conditions of a flood‐plain: a multi‐proxy study from the Grabia River valley mire,central Poland 下载免费PDF全文
Dominik Pawłowski Grzegorz Kowalewski Krystyna Milecka Mateusz Płóciennik Michał Woszczyk Tomasz Zieliński Daniel Okupny Wojciech Włodarski Jacek Forysiak 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2015,44(3):543-562
This study investigated the Grabia River valley mire in central Poland to reconstruct its palaeoenvironmental conditions from the Younger Dryas to the present. We analysed sedimentological, biological and geochemical data from the palaeo‐oxbow lake and valley mire to identify the principal hydrological trends, especially episodes of high water level. During the Lateglacial and Holocene, the Grabia River had a meandering channel, and its hydraulic parameters and the channel dimensions changed in response to climatic oscillations and vegetation development. We identified phases of high flood intensity and high groundwater level that correlate with regional and supraregional climatic events. The frequency and timing of palaeohydroclimatic oscillations show strong similarities to records from other sites in Poland and the rest of Europe. We show that various analytical methods, namely, pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera, Chironomidae, sedimentological, geochemical and radiocarbon data, can be effective tools for reconstructing past hydroclimatic changes in palaeo‐oxbow lakes and investigating the effects of past climate changes on river environments. The high sensitivity of the biota, especially Cladocera, to changes in water level permits the reconstruction of palaeoecological changes, especially flood episodes that occurred in the river valley. In particular, the increase in the proportion of sediment‐associated Cladocera and pelagic taxa was closely correlated with floods. Through comparisons with the palaeobiological data, geochemical data allowed the identification of humid phases within the fen associated with a rising groundwater table, direct fluvial activity (floods) and alluvial deposition. We also discuss the limitations of palaeohydrological reconstructions based on these proxies, especially on fossil aquatic invertebrates. 相似文献
65.
8000 years of vegetation history in the northern Iberian Peninsula inferred from the palaeoenvironmental study of the Zalama ombrotrophic bog (Basque‐Cantabrian Mountains,Spain) 下载免费PDF全文
Sebastián Pérez‐Díaz José Antonio López‐Sáez Xabier Pontevedra‐Pombal Martín Souto‐Souto Didier Galop 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2016,45(4):658-672
This paper focuses on pollen, spores, non‐pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) and certain geochemical elements from the ombrotrophic blanket bog of Zalama (Basque‐Cantabrian Mountains, northern Iberian Peninsula), with the support of a robust chronology based on 17 AMS 14C dates. The main results related to the last 8000 years show that, during the early middle Holocene, pines and deciduous forests were the most extensive tree formations. At the beginning of the succession, pines reach 44%, showing regional presence, whereas after 7600 cal. a BP, deciduous forests were particularly abundant. From c. 6500 cal. a BP the pollen diagram constructed from our samples shows the first anthropogenic evidence, linked with the new economic practices related to the Neolithic of the Basque‐Cantabrian Mountains. From 3300 cal. a BP the expansion of Fagus sylvatica is particularly clear, and has since then become one of the dominant forest species in this region. We also discuss the Holocene evolution of other noteworthy plant communities in southwestern Europe, such as Taxus baccata, Juglans and shrublands. 相似文献
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Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal 下载免费PDF全文
Claudia Carvalho‐Santos João Pedro Nunes António T. Monteiro Lars Hein João Pradinho Honrado 《水文研究》2016,30(5):720-738
The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
68.
Mauricio González Guillot Mónica Escayola Rogelio Acevedo 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2011,31(1):1-16
The magmatic arc of the Fuegian Andes is composed mostly of Upper Mesozoic to Cenozoic calc-alkaline plutons and subordinated lavas. To the rear arc, however, isolated mid-Cretaceous monzonitic plutons and small calc-alkaline dykes and sills crop out. This calc-alkaline unit (the Ushuaia Peninsula Andesites, UPA) includes hornblende-rich, porphyritic quartz meladiorites, granodiorites, andesites, dacites and lamprophyres. Radiometric dating and cross-cutting relationships indicate that UPA is younger than the monzonitic suite. The geochemistry of UPA is medium to high K, with high LILE (Ba 500–2000 ppm, Sr 800–1400 ppm), HFSE (Th 7–23 ppm, Nb 7–13 ppm, Ta 0.5–1.1 ppm) and LREE (La 16–51 ppm) contents, along with relatively low HREE (Yb 1.7–1.3 ppm) and Y (9–19 ppm). The similar mineralogy and geochemistry of all UPA rocks suggest they evolved from a common parental magma, by low pressure crystal fractionation, without significant crustal assimilation. A pure Rayleigh fractionation model indicates that 60–65% of crystal fractionation of 60% hornblende + 34% plagioclase + 4% clinopyroxene + 1% Fe-Ti oxide, apatite and sphene (a paragenesis similar of UPA mafic rocks) can explain evolution from lamprophyres to dacites. The UPA has higher LILE, HFSE and LREE, and lower HREE and Y than the calc-alkaline plutons and lavas of the volcanic front. The HREE and Y are lower than in the potassic plutons as well. High concentrations of Th, Nb, Ta, Zr, Hf, LREE and Ce/Pb, and low U/Th, Ba/Th ratios in UPA, even in the least differentiated samples, suggest contributions from subducted sediments to the mantle source. On the other hand, relatively low HREE and Y, high LREE/HREE (La/Yb 11–38) ratios and Nb-Ta contents can be interpreted as mantle metasomatism by partial melts of either subducted garnetiferous oceanic sediment or basalt as well. Additionally, high LILE content in UPA, similar to the potassic plutons, suggests also a mantle wedge previously metasomatized by potassic parental magmas in their route to crustal levels. Therefore, UPA represents a unique suite in the Fuegian arc generated in a multiple hybridized source. UPA generation is related to a transition from normal to flat subduction which additionally caused the widening and landward migration of the magmatic arc, as well as crustal deformation. Rear-arc magmatism endured ca. 22 m.y.; afterwards, calc-alkaline magmatism remained at the volcanic front. 相似文献
69.
Esther Salazar Dorit Hammerling Xia Wang Bruno Sansó Andrew O. Finley Linda O. Mearns 《Climatic change》2016,138(1-2):55-69
We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States. 相似文献
70.
M. Ciężka M. Modelska M. Górka A. Trojanowska-Olichwer D. Widory 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2016,73(1):61-80
The chemical compositions (Na+, NH4 +, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl?, NO2 ?, NO3 ?, SO4 2?, HCO3 ?) of wet precipitation and nitrogen isotope compositions δ15N(NH4 +) were studied from January to December 2010 in Wroc?aw (SW Poland). Results of a principle component analysis show that 82 % of the data variability can be explained by three main factors: 1) F1 (40 %) observed during vegetative season (electrical conductivity, HCO3 ?, NO3 ?, NO2 ?, NH4 + and SO4 2?), mainly controlling rainwater mineralization; 2) F2 (26 %) observed during vegetative and heating seasons (K+, Ca2+ and Mg2+), probably representing a combination of two processes: anthropogenic dusts and fertilizers application in agricultural fields, and 3) F3 (16 %) reported mainly during heating season (Na+ and Cl?) probably indicating the influence of marine aerosols. Variations of δ15N(NH4 +) from ?11.5 to 18.5?‰ identify three main pathways for the formation of NH4 +: 1) equilibrium fractionation between NH3 and NH4 +; 2) kinetic exchange between NH3 and NH4 +; 3) NH4 + exchange between atmospheric salts particles and precipitation. The coupled chemical/statistical analysis and δ15N(NH4 +) approach shows that while fossil fuels burning is the main source of NH4 + in precipitation during the heating season, during the vegetative season NH4 + originates from local sewage irrigation fields in Osobowice or agricultural fertilizers. 相似文献