An iteratively reweighted least-squares approach to adaptive robust adjustment of parameters in linear regression models with autoregressive and <Emphasis Type="Italic">t</Emphasis>-distributed deviations

In this paper, we investigate a linear regression time series model of possibly outlier-afflicted observations and autocorrelated random deviations. This colored noise is represented by a covariance-stationary autoregressive (AR) process, in which the independent error components follow a scaled (Student’s) t-distribution. This error model allows for the stochastic modeling of multiple outliers and for an adaptive robust maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the unknown regression and AR coefficients, the scale parameter, and the degree of freedom of the t-distribution. This approach is meant to be an extension of known estimators, which tend to focus only on the regression model, or on the AR error model, or on normally distributed errors. For the purpose of ML estimation, we derive an expectation conditional maximization either algorithm, which leads to an easy-to-implement version of iteratively reweighted least squares. The estimation performance of the algorithm is evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations for a Fourier as well as a spline model in connection with AR colored noise models of different orders and with three different sampling distributions generating the white noise components. We apply the algorithm to a vibration dataset recorded by a high-accuracy, single-axis accelerometer, focusing on the evaluation of the estimated AR colored noise model.     

A novel spatial index using spatial analyses and hierarchical fuzzy expert system for obtaining green TOD: a case study in Tehran city

Sustainable development is a vital and challenging factor for managing urban growth smartly. This factor contains three main components, namely economic growth, ecological protection and social justice. Green Transit-Oriented Development (GTOD) is a consummate planning approach in line with those components. Implementation of GTOD in an urban area is underpinned by its quantification. Therefore, a quantitative spatial index based on several indicators related to TOD and Green urbanism concepts should be developed. In this study, Geo-spatial Information Science and hierarchical fuzzy inference system (HFIS) were employed to calculate the indicators and aggregate them, respectively. In order to showcase the feasibility of the proposed method, it was implemented in a case study area in the City of Tehran, Iran. The result of this method is an integrated spatial GTOD index, which measures the neighbourhoods’ GTOD levels. These measurements specify weaknesses and strengths of neighbourhoods’ factors. Therefore, this index helps decision-makers to plan neighbourhoods based on land use and public transit views. Additionally, the HFIS method helps decision-makers to consider criteria and indicators with their inherent uncertainties and aggregate them with much fewer rules. For evaluating the results, the developed GTOD index was assessed with municipal action planning and attraction maps. According to the outcomes of the assessment, it is concluded that the proposed method is adequately robust and efficient for smart and sustainable urban planning.     

Context-aware abstraction and generalization of street networks: two cognitively engineered user-oriented approaches using network Voronoi diagrams

Generalization and spatial contextual awareness are prevalent concepts in geographic information systems. This study adopted a context-dependent user-centred network generalization method to create a sub-network for optimal route finding. The results show an increase in the number of preferred traversed edges. A route presentation approach is suggested that is based on cognitively engineered user-oriented abstraction of street network. Successive abstractions hierarchize the street network to create a hierarchical presentation structure. The route is projected onto one level in the structure. Then, instead of showing the exact route, the network Voronoi regions represented by the projected route are shown. Experience indicates that the suggested method is an efficient way of route presentation for a hierarchical regionalized structure of a human cognitive map.     

A practical and efficient numerical scheme for the analysis of steady state unconfined seepage flows

The scaled boundary finite‐element method (SBFEM), a novel semi‐analytical technique, is applied to the analysis of the confined and unconfined seepage flow. This method combines the advantages of the finite‐element method and the boundary element method. In this method, only the boundary of the domain is discretized; no fundamental solution is required, and singularity problems can be modeled rigorously. Anisotropic and nonhomogeneous materials satisfying similarity are modeled without additional efforts. In this paper, SBFE equations and solution procedures for the analysis of seepage flow are outlined. The accuracy of the proposed method in modeling singularity problems is demonstrated by analyzing seepage flow under a concrete dam with a cutoff at heel. As only the boundary is discretized, the variable mesh technique is advisable for modeling unconfined seepage analyses. The accuracy, effectiveness, and efficiency of the method are demonstrated by modeling several unconfined seepage flow problems. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A probabilistic framework to make a decision on the post-earthquake functionality of bridges considering the damage,residual displacement,and aftershock

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Making a decision on the post-earthquake functionality of structures has always been one of the most challenging issues in earthquake engineering. There is an...     

Reliability framework for characterizing heat wave and cold spell events

Natural Hazards - Extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold spells affect people’s lives. This study develops a probabilistic framework to evaluate heat waves and cold spells. As...     

A GIS-based comparative study of hybrid fuzzy-gene expression programming and hybrid fuzzy-artificial neural network for land subsidence susceptibility modeling

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Land subsidence is a complicated hazard that artificial intelligence models can model it without approximation and simplification. In this...     

Uncertainty assessment of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model with implementation of the novel hybrid MLP-FFA method for prediction of biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen: a case study of Langat River

Accurate prediction of the chemical constituents in major river systems is a necessary task for water quality management, aquatic life well-being and the overall healthcare planning of river systems. In this study, the capability of a newly proposed hybrid forecasting model based on the firefly algorithm (FFA) as a metaheuristic optimizer, integrated with the multilayer perceptron (MLP-FFA), is investigated for the prediction of monthly water quality in Langat River basin, Malaysia. The predictive ability of the MLP-FFA model is assessed against the MLP-based model. To validate the proposed MLP-FFA model, monthly water quality data over a 10-year duration (2001–2010) for two different hydrological stations (1L04 and 1L05) provided by the Irrigation and Drainage Ministry of Malaysia are used to predict the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and dissolved oxygen (DO). The input variables are the chemical oxygen demand (COD), total phosphate (PO₄), total solids, potassium (K), sodium (Na), chloride (Cl), electrical conductivity (EC), pH and ammonia nitrogen (NH₄-N). The proposed hybrid model is then evaluated in accordance with statistical metrics such as the correlation coefficient (r), root-mean-square error, % root-mean-square error and Willmott’s index of agreement. Analysis of the results shows that MLP-FFA outperforms the equivalent MLP model. Also, in this research, the uncertainty of a MLP neural network model is analyzed in relation to the predictive ability of the MLP model. To assess the uncertainties within the MLP model, the percentage of observed data bracketed by 95 percent predicted uncertainties (95PPU) and the band width of 95 percent confidence intervals (d-factors) are selected. The effect of input variables on BOD and DO prediction is also investigated through sensitivity analysis. The obtained values bracketed by 95PPU show about 77.7%, 72.2% of data for BOD and 72.2%, 91.6% of data for DO related to the 1L04 and 1L05 stations, respectively. The d-factors have a value of 1.648, 2.269 for BOD and 1.892, 3.480 for DO related to the 1L04 and 1L05 stations, respectively. Based on the values in both stations for the 95PPU and d-factor, it is concluded that the neural network model has an acceptably low degree of uncertainty applied for BOD and DO simulations. The findings of this study can have important implications for error assessment in artificial intelligence-based predictive models applied for water resources management and the assessment of the overall health in major river systems.     

Experimental Investigation of Wettability Alteration from Water-wet to Oil-wet During Oil Migration

Natural Resources Research - Most oil reservoirs are first saturated with water and become oil-wet gradually due to oil migration and accumulation. Previous studies reported that the adsorption of...