Stability of sandy slopes under seepage conditions

Stability against shallow mass sliding in saturated sandy slopes under seepage depends on the flow direction and hydraulic gradient, particularly near the ground surface. Two modes of instability i.e., Coulomb sliding and liquefaction have been studied and the critical flow directions discussed. The utility of the numerical approach in solving complex flow problems with irregular boundaries and surface topography is demonstrated by means of two slope examples with different internal drainage conditions. The numerical results for the seepage gradients at different points are compared with those predicted by the simple expression derived in this study, and the corresponding effects on the stability are evaluated.     

Modeling and assessing the effects of land use changes on runoff generation with the CLUE-s and WetSpa models

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency,...     

A nine-step approach for developing and implementing an “agricultural drought risk management plan”; case study: Alamut River basin in Qazvin,Iran

Occurrence of drought, as an inevitable natural climate feature, cannot be ceased while happening. However, costs of the consequences could be alleviated using mature scientific integrated approaches. To reduce the amount of damage, it is required to provide “Contingency” and “Mitigation” action plans. For this reason, development of efficient operating instructions for various regions based on weather conditions and field studies is needed as well as having a sophisticated understanding of socioeconomic situations. This paper describes an approach to provide the first national agricultural drought risk management plan for a river basin in Iran country as a pilot. The study lasted for 3 years as a national technical research project for the “soil conservation and watershed management research institute.” To reach the objectives, besides holding workshops and specialized think-tank meetings, field researches were done. Based on the socioeconomic data sources in the basin and the results of meetings by participation of local managers and residents, the final plan was developed. Moreover, in order to carry out this research, different climatic, agricultural and local information were collected in the watershed. In the next steps, potential risks and vulnerabilities of various agricultural sectors due to the hazard were evaluated. In this study, a nine-step approach to develop an agricultural drought risk management plan proposing different scientific–managerial phases based on the latest experts’ opinions, released international scientific best practices, and existing conditions governing the region was followed. With respect to the average income of US$ one million from agriculture and animal husbandry in the river basin, total drought loss varies from US$ 86,000 to US$ 258,000 for a range of light to very intense drought conditions, respectively. The setup of these nine executive phases defined monitoring, forecasting, and warning steps in working teams and managed the subprograms in partnership with stakeholders and decision-makers to mitigate the rate of drought damage from 30 to 47% (depending on the severity of the drought condition).

     

Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M _w 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.     

Cluster Analysis of Petrophysical and Geological Parameters for Separating the Electrofacies of a Gas Carbonate Reservoir Sequence

Natural Resources Research - Assessing reservoir properties and knowing the relationship between different reservoir parameters can significantly help to plan for production from a reservoir. In...     

Statistical analysis of surface urban heat island intensity variations: A case study of Babol city,Iran

The urban heat island is considered as one of the most important climate change phenomena in urban areas, which can result in remarkable negative effects on flora, concentration of pollutants, air quality, energy and water consumption, human health, ecological and economic impacts, and even on global warming. The variation analysis of the surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) is important for understanding the effect of urbanization and urban planning. The objective of this study was to present a new strategy based on the Shannon’s entropy and Pearson chi-square statistic to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of the SUHII. In this study, Landsat TM, ETM+, OLI and TIRS images, MODIS products, meteorological data, topographic and population maps of the Babol city, Iran, from 1985 to 2017, and air temperature data recorded by ground recorder devices in 2017 were used. First, Single-Channel algorithm was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST), and the maximum likelihood classifier was employed to classify Landsat images. Then, based on LST maps, surface urban heat island ratio index was employed to calculate the SUHII. Further, several statistical methods, such as the degree-of-freedom, degree-of-sprawl and degree-of-goodness, were used to analyse the SUHII variation along different geographic directions and in various time periods. Finally, correlation between various parameters such as air temperature, SUHII, population variation and degree-of-goodness index values were investigated. The results indicated that the SUHII value increased by 24% in Babol over different time periods. The correlation coefficient yielded 0.82 between the values of the difference between the mean air temperature of the urban and suburbs and the SUHII values for the geographic directions. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient between the population variation and the degree-of-goodness index values reached 0.8. The results suggested that the SUHII variation of Babol city had a high degree-of-freedom, high degree-of-sprawl and negative degree-of-goodness.     

An investigation of near surface wind speed trends in arid and semiarid regions of Iran

Wind plays an important role on the ecosystems and hydrological cycles besides other meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and relative humidity. It strongly affects evapotranspiration, especially in arid and semiarid regions where there are serious problems in regard to water resource management. Evaluating the wind speed trend can provide good information for future agricultural planning. This study was conducted in order to investigate the wind speed trends over 24 synoptic meteorological stations located in arid and semiarid regions of Iran from 1975 to 2005. Near-surface wind speed was trended by nonparametric Mann–Kendall test spatially and temporally in three time scales (annual, seasonal, and monthly). Then, Sen’s slope estimator was used to determine the amount of the changes; furthermore, 10-year moving average low-pass filter was applied to show general trends. Finally, the smoothed time series derived from the mentioned filter were classified in three clusters for each time series and then mapped to show their spatial distribution pattern. Results showed insignificant and significant, increasing and decreasing trends during the surveyed time. Wind speeds in less than 50 % of stations changed statistically in all time scales, and in most cases, the frequency of the upward trends was more than that of downward ones. The spatial distribution of significant wind speed showed that the increase mostly occurred in eastern part. Clustering gave us the turning point around 1990. Clearly, when clusters were mapped, they indicated the same pattern as the Z value maps derived from Mann–Kendall test which meant that the outputs of the mentioned method confirmed the other one. As the wind speed trends in different stations likely to follow the previous evapotranspiration (ET₀) trend results in Iran, it confirms that wind speed was an effective parameter on ET₀, even though other parameters should be considered too.     

Evaluation of long term trends in apple cultivation and its productivity in Jammu and Kashmir from 1975 to 2015

GeoJournal - Horticulture plays a pivotal role in the economy of Jammu and Kashmir. Owing to favourable agro-climatic conditions, temperate horticulture is fast expanding in the state which is...     

Thermal stability of a layer with permeable boundaries and variable gravitational field

The aim of this paper is to investigate the thermal stability of a fluid layer with permeable boundaries and a variable gravitational field. It is observed that the principle of exchange of stabilities is valid when the layer is heated form below and the complex growth rate of an arbitrary oscillatory mode exists outside of a circle whose radius depends upon the permeability parameter, Prandtl number and wavelength of the mode. In the case of a layer heated from below, gravity increasing upward has a destabilizing effect whereas the permeability parameter has a stabilizing effect.     

An investigation of trends in precipitation volume for the last three decades in different regions of Fars province, Iran

Under condition of climate changes as global warming, monitoring and detecting trend of precipitation volume is essential and will be useful for agricultural sections. Considering the fact that there were not enough research related to precipitation volume, this study aimed to determine trends in precipitation volume, monthly and annually in different regions of Fars province for the last three decades (33?years period; 1978–2010). Fars province is located in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, and it plays an important role in agricultural production. Inverse distance weighting interpolation method was used to provide precipitation data for all regions. To analyze the trends of precipitation volume, Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and 10-year moving average low-pass filter (within time series) were used. The negative trends were identified by the Sen’s slope estimator as well as Mann–Kendall test. However, all the trends were insignificant at the surveyed confidence level (95%). With regards to the application of 10-year moving average low-pass filter, a considerable decreasing trend was observed after around year 1994. Since one of the most important restrictions in agricultural development of the Fars province is lack of sufficient water resources, any changes onward to lack of sufficient precipitation impose impressive pressure and stress on valuable resources and subsequently agricultural production.