Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

Seismic and well logging interpretation for evaluation of the lower Bahariya reservoir,southwest Qarun (SWQ) Field,Gindi Basin,Egypt

This paper focuses on seismic and well log interpretations for evaluating the sandstones of the Cenomanian Bahariya Formation in the southwest Qarun Field, Gindi Basin, northern Western Desert of Egypt. The seismic profiles display a clear anticlinal structure intersected by reverse faults in the study area. This faulted anticline has been interpreted to be one of the Syrian arc system folds formed by Upper Cretaceous tectonic inversion, which resulted from the NW movement of the African Plate relative to Laurasia. This anticline has been recommended as a target for exploration by the present work as it may represent a structural trap for hydrocarbon accumulation. The sandstones of the Lower Bahariya Formation in the southwest Qarun Field display good reservoir characteristics. The interpretation of the available well log data for the SWQ-21 and SWQ-25 wells for the Lower Bahariya Formation reflects a good reservoir quality for oil production in its topmost part. This reservoir possesses low S_W (<50%), high porosity (16%), low S_W/S_XO and low BVW (<0.09) which all reflect a high potential for oil production.     

Application of the coral health chart to determine bleaching status of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acropora downingi</Emphasis> in a subtropical coral reef

The ‘Coral Health Chart’ has become a popular tool for monitoring coral bleaching worldwide. The scleractinian coral Acropora downingi (Wallace 1999) is highly vulnerable to temperature anomalies in the Persian Gulf. Our study tested the reliability of Coral Health Chart scores for the assessment of bleaching-related changes in the mitotic index (MI) and density of zooxanthellae cells in A. downingi in Qeshm Island, the Persian Gulf. The results revealed that, at least under severe conditions, it can be used as an effective proxy for detecting changes in the density of normal, transparent, or degraded zooxanthellae and MI. However, its ability to discern changes in pigment concentration and total zooxanthellae density should be viewed with some caution in the Gulf region, probably because the high levels of environmental variability in this region result in inherent variations in the characteristics of zooxanthellae among “healthy” looking corals.     

Impacts of Methane on Carbon Dioxide Storage in Brine Formations

In the context of geological carbon sequestration (GCS), carbon dioxide (CO₂) is often injected into deep formations saturated with a brine that may contain dissolved light hydrocarbons, such as methane (CH₄). In this multicomponent multiphase displacement process, CO₂ competes with CH₄ in terms of dissolution, and CH₄ tends to exsolve from the aqueous into a gaseous phase. Because CH₄ has a lower viscosity than injected CO₂, CH₄ is swept up into a ‘bank’ of CH₄‐rich gas ahead of the CO₂ displacement front. On the one hand, this may provide a useful tracer signal of an approaching CO₂ front. On the other hand, the emergence of gaseous CH₄ is undesirable because it poses a leakage risk of a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂ if the cap rock is compromised. Open fractures or faults and wells could result in CH₄ contamination of overlying groundwater aquifers as well as surface emissions. We investigate this process through detailed numerical simulations for a large‐scale GCS pilot project (near Cranfield, Mississippi) for which a rich set of field data is available. An accurate cubic‐plus‐association equation‐of‐state is used to describe the non‐linear phase behavior of multiphase brine‐CH₄‐CO₂ mixtures, and breakthrough curves in two observation wells are used to constrain transport processes. Both field data and simulations indeed show the development of an extensive plume of CH₄‐rich (up to 90 mol%) gas as a consequence of CO₂ injection, with important implications for the risk assessment of future GCS projects.     

The Effect of Hydraulic Gradient and Pattern of Conduit Systems on Tracing Tests: Bench-Scale Modeling

Tracer breakthrough curves provide valuable information about the traced media, especially in inherently heterogeneous karst aquifers. In order to study the effect of variations in hydraulic gradient and conduit systems on breakthrough curves, a bench scale karst model was constructed. The bench scale karst model contains both matrix and a conduit. Eight tracing tests were conducted under a wide range of hydraulic gradients from 1 to greater than 5 for branchwork and network-conduit systems. Sampling points at varying distances from the injection point were utilized. Results demonstrate that mean tracer velocities, tracer mass recovery and linear rising slope of the breakthrough curves were directly controlled by hydraulic gradient. As hydraulic gradient increased, both one half the time for peak concentration and one fifth the time for peak concentration decreased. The results demonstrate the variations in one half the time for peak concentration and one fifth the time for peak concentration of the descending limb for different sampling points under differing hydraulic gradients are mainly controlled by the interactions of advection with dispersion. The results are discussed from three perspectives: different conduit systems, different hydraulic-gradient conditions, and different sampling points. The research confirmed the undeniable role of hydrogeological setting (i.e., hydraulic gradient and conduit system) on the shape of the breakthrough curve. The extracted parameters (mobile-fluid velocity, tracer-mass recovery, linear rising limb, one half the time for peak concentration, and one fifth the time for peak concentration) allow for differentiating hydrogeological settings and enhance interpretations the tracing tests in karst aquifers.     

On the occurrence and origin of anthropogenic radionuclides found in a fragment of the Chelyabinsk (LL5) meteorite

A piece of the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteorite was investigated for its content of anthropogenic radionuclides. In addition to traces of cesium‐137 that had been previously reported for this particular fragment, we found an unusually high amount of strontium‐90, which indicates that the source of this contamination was the Kyshtym accident (1957). A high Sr‐90/Cs‐137 activity ratio is characteristic for Kyshtym‐derived contaminations. Based on the cesium‐137 content in the soil from the finding site, it is estimated that the fragment was contaminated with soil particles in the milligram range upon impact. Investigation of the soil revealed very unusual ferromagnetic characteristics and an iron‐rich chemical composition. Mössbauer spectroscopy indicated the presence of steel components in this soil, suggesting that the investigated meteorite fragment was found in an industrial dumping site rather than natural soil.     

Estimation of daily stream water temperatures with a Bayesian regression approach

Stream water temperature plays a significant role in aquatic ecosystems where it controls many important biological and physical processes. Reliable estimates of water temperature at the daily time step are critical in managing water resources. We developed a parsimonious piecewise Bayesian model for estimating daily stream water temperatures that account for temporal autocorrelation and both linear and nonlinear relationships with air temperature and discharge. The model was tested at 8 climatically different basins of the USA and at 34 sites within the mountainous Boise River Basin (Idaho, USA). The results show that the proposed model is robust with an average root mean square error of 1.25 °C and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.92 over a 2‐year period. Our approach can be used to predict historic daily stream water temperatures in any location using observed daily stream temperature and regional air temperature data.     

Wrench tectonics of Abu Gharadig Basin,Western Desert,Egypt: a structural analysis for hydrocarbon prospects

Mapping based on the interpreted seismic data covering the Abu Gharadig Basin in the northern Western Desert has revealed that the deposition of the Upper Cretaceous succession was controlled by dextral wrench tectonics. This dextral shear accompanied NW movement of the African Plate relative to Laurasian Plate. Structural depth maps of the Cenomanian Bahariya Formation and the Turonian-Coniacian D and A members of Abu Roash Formation display a clear NE-SW anticline dissected by NW-SE normal faults. This anticline represents one of the en echelon folds characterizing the wrench compressional component. The interpreted normal faults reflect the extensional T-fractures associated with the wrenching tectonics. The interaction between the aforementioned NE-SW anticline with the NW-SE extensional faults further confirms the effect of the Upper Cretaceous dextral wrench tectonic. However, the influence of this wrench tectonics was gradually diminishing from the Cenomanian up to the Coniacian times. The NW-SE compressional stress of the dextral wrench compressional component during the Cenomanian up to Coniacian age was greater in NW direction than the SE direction. Three mapped structural closures which are predicted to be potential hydrocarbon traps belonging to the Bahariya Formation and Abu Roash D Member, and are recommended to be drilled in the study area, with potential reservoirs. The regularity of the en echelon array of both anticlines and normal faults within the wrench zones suggests additional closures may be located elsewhere beside the study area.