Long-term seasonal rainfall forecasting: efficiency of linear modelling technique

Using the lagged (past) climate indices, including El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as input parameters and long-term spring rainfall as outputs, calibration and validation of the linear multiple regression (MR) models have been performed. Since Australian rainfall varies both temporally and spatially, the analysis on the linear MR models was performed on regional scale. These models show the capability of linear MR technique for long-term predictions of Western Australian spring rainfall. The emphasis was given to assess the statistical correlations between Western Australian spring rainfall and dominating large-scale climate modes. The efficiency of linear modelling technique was evaluated to predict seasonal rainfall forecasting. At the same time, the Pearson correlation (R), mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and Willmott index agreement (d) were used to assess the capability of MR models. The models which fulfilled the limits of statistical significances were used for the prediction of future spring rainfall using independent data set. The results indicate that during calibration periods maximum achievable correlations varied from 0.47 to 0.53 for the selected stations. In regard to predict peaks and troughs of rainfall time series, it was found that correlations between predicted and actual peaks varied from 0.82 to 0.94 and between predicted and actual troughs varied from 0.53 to 0.91.     

A new approach for developing comprehensive agricultural drought index using satellite-derived biophysical parameters and factor analysis method

The accurate assessment of drought and its monitoring is highly depending on the selection of appropriate indices. Despite the availability of countless drought indices, due to variability in environmental properties, a single universally drought index has not been presented yet. In this study, a new approach for developing comprehensive agricultural drought index from satellite-derived biophysical parameters is presented. Therefore, the potential of satellite-derived biophysical parameters for improved understanding of the water status of pistachio (Pistachio vera L.) crop grown in a semiarid area is evaluated. Exploratory factor analysis with principal component extraction method is performed to select the most influential parameters from seven biophysical parameters including surface temperature (T _s), surface albedo (α), leaf area index (LAI), soil heat flux (G _o), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and net radiation (R _n). T _s and G _o were found as the most effective parameters by this method. However, T _s, LAI, α, and SAVI that accounts for 99.6 % of the total variance of seven inputs were selected to model a new biophysical water stress index (BPWSI). The values of BPWSI were stretched independently and compared with the range of actual evapotranspiration estimated through well-known METRIC (mapping evapotranspiration at high resolution with internal calibration) energy balance model. The results showed that BPWSI can be efficiently used for the prediction of the pistachio water status (RMSE of 0.52, 0.31, and 0.48 mm/day on three image dates of April 28, July 17, and August 2, 2010). The study confirmed that crop water status is accounted by several satellite-based biophysical parameters rather than single parameter.     

Quantitative and qualitative simulation of groundwater by mathematical models in Rafsanjan aquifer using MODFLOW and MT3DMS

Agriculture sector by using 80% of freshwater is the greatest water consumer in Iran. Excessive use of agricultural fertilizers in last decade, caused accumulation of enormous amounts of salts and subsequence declined the physical properties of soil. In desert and dry regions such as Rafsanjan plain, use of the groundwater resources is more than the surface water resources. Therefore, information about the quality of these resources remains a necessary task for optimum management, protection of water resources, and stopping the future damages. In this study, the groundwater quantity and quality of Rafsanjan plain was investigated by MODFLOW and MT3DMS. The presented quantitative model for this aquifer was compared by observed data and calibrated. This model was used to predict a 10-year period. Results show that water elevation decreases approximately 15 m for 10 years to come in this plain. Qualitative model results show that most quality parameters will increase. Electrical conductivity will increase more than other parameters. As values of this parameter will reach 16,000 µs/l for next 5 years. Therefore, we suggest that exploitation of water from these resources should be reduced and discharge from some of agricultural wells stop; also we suggested that recharge to groundwater resources should be increased and agricultural activities should be limited or improved using of modern irrigation systems in this plain.     

Geochemistry and origin of Dehoo manganese deposit,south Zahedan,southeastern Iran

Dehoo manganese deposit is located 52 km to the south of Zahedan in Sistan and Baluchestan Province, southeastern Iran. This deposit that lies in the central part of the Iranian Flysch Zone is lenticular in shape and lies above the micritic limestone-radiolarite cherts of the upper Cretaceous ophiolite unit. It is hosted within the reddish to brown radiolarite cherts and in places interlinks with them, so that the radiolarite chert packages play a key role for Mn mineralization in the region. Investigated ore-paragenetic successions and the geochemical characteristics of the Dehoo deposit were studied by means of major oxide, trace, and rare earth element (REE) contents that provide information as to the mineral origin. Strong positive correlations were found between major oxides and trace elements (Al₂O₃-TiO₂, r = 0.95; TiO₂-MgO, r = 0.94; Fe₂O₃-Al₂O₃, r = 0.90; MgO-Al₂O₃, r = 0.84; MgO-Fe₂O₃, r = 0.88; Fe₂O₃-TiO₂, r = 0.91; Fe₂O₃-K₂O, r = 0.74; Al₂O₃-K₂O, r = 0.69; Al₂O₃-V, r = 0.72; TiO₂-V, r = 0.73, and MgO-V, r = 0.69) that testify to the contribution of mafic terrigenous detrital material to the deposit. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns of all ore samples are characterized by negative Ce (0.06–0.15, average 0.10) and slightly positive Eu (0.29–0.45, average 0.36) anomalies. Based on ratios of Mn/Fe (average 56.23), Co/Ni (average 0.33), Co/Zn (average 0.38), U/Th (average 3.40), La/Ce (average 1.45), La_n/Nd_n (average 2.16), Dy_n/Yb_n (average 0.33), and light REE/heavy REE (average 8.40; LREE > HREE), as well as Ba (average 920 ppm) and total REE contents (average 6.96 ppm) negative Ce and positive Eu anomalies, Dehoo could be considered a predominantly submarine hydrothermal Mn deposit complemented by terrigenous detrital mafic material.     

Impact of lateral force-resisting system and design/construction practices on seismic performance and cost of tall buildings in Dubai, UAE

The local design and construction practices in the United Arab Emirates(UAE),together with Dubai’s unique rate of development,warrant special attention to the selection of Lateral Force-Resisting Systems(LFRS).This research proposes four different feasible solutions for the selection of the LFRS for tall buildings and quantifies the impact of these selections on seismic performance and cost.The systems considered are: Steel Special Moment-Resisting Frame(SMRF),Concrete SMRF,Steel Dual System(SMRF with Special Steel Plates Shear Wall,SPSW),and Concrete Dual System(SMRF with Special Concrete Shear Wall,SCSW).The LFRS selection is driven by seismic setup as well as the adopted design and construction practices in Dubai.It is found that the concrete design alternatives are consistently less expensive than their steel counterparts.The steel dual system is expected to have the least damage based on its relatively lesser interstory drifts.However,this preferred performance comes at a higher initial construction cost.Conversely,the steel SMRF system is expected to have the most damage and associated repair cost due to its excessive flexibility.The two concrete alternatives are expected to have relatively moderate damage and repair costs in addition to their lesser initial construction cost.     

Reliability framework for characterizing heat wave and cold spell events

Natural Hazards - Extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold spells affect people’s lives. This study develops a probabilistic framework to evaluate heat waves and cold spells. As...     

Evaluation of long term trends in apple cultivation and its productivity in Jammu and Kashmir from 1975 to 2015

GeoJournal - Horticulture plays a pivotal role in the economy of Jammu and Kashmir. Owing to favourable agro-climatic conditions, temperate horticulture is fast expanding in the state which is...     

Hydrochemistry and Classification of Groundwater Resources of Ishwardi Municipal Area,Pabna District,Bangladesh

The chemical property of groundwater depends largely on the mineralogical composition of the rocks through which the water has moved and the rate of movement and these characteristics of surface water depend on organic and inorganic reactions, industrial effluents, rainfall and temperature etc. The underground water tends to contain more dissolved materials than those in surface water because of their more intimate and longer contact with organic materials of soil and rock particles. The groundwater of the studied area is dominant of alkaline earth’s (Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺) and weak acids (HCO₃ ⁻) which may be classified as Magnesium-Bicarbonate and Calcium Carbonate types. Genetically, the groundwater of the area belongs to both “Normal Chloride” “Normal Sulphate” and “Normal Carbonate” to “Super Carbonate” group. Based on EC, SAR and RC, the groundwater of the area varies from good–excellent quality for irrigation purposes with low alkali hazard and medium salinity hazard.     

Equatorial radius of the Earth: A dynamical determination

An intrresting variation on the familiar method of determining the earth's equatorial radius a_e, from a knowledge of the earth's equatorial gravity is suggested. The value of equatorial radius thus found is 6378,142±5 meters. The associated parameters are GM=3.986005±.000004 × 10²⁰ cm³ sec-⁻² which excludes the relative mass of atmosphere ≅10⁻⁶ ξ GM, the equatorial gravity γ_e 978,030.9 milligals (constrained in this solution by the Potsdam Correction of 13.67 milligals as the Potsdam Correction is more directly, orless indirectly, measurable than the equatorial gravity) and an ellipsoidal flattening of f=1/298.255.     

Statistical analysis of short-term water stress conditions at Riggs Creek OzFlux tower site

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - A large range of indices and proxies are available to describe the water stress conditions of an area subject to different applications, which have varying...