Open and coastal seas interactions south of Japan represented by an ensemble Kalman filter

We investigated the feasibility of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to reproduce oceanic conditions south of Japan. We have adopted the local ensemble transformation Kalman filter algorithm based on 20 members’ ensemble simulations of the parallelized Princeton Ocean Model (the Stony Brook Parallel Ocean Model) with horizontal resolution of 1/36°. By assimilating satellite sea surface height anomaly, satellite sea surface temperature, and in situ temperature and salinity profiles, we reproduced the Kuroshio variation south of Japan for the period from 8 to 28 February 2010. EnKF successfully reproduced the Kuroshio path positions and the water mass property of the Kuroshio waters as observed. It also detected the variation of the steep thermohaline front in the Kii Channel due to the intrusion of the Kuroshio water based on the observation, suggesting efficiency of EnKF for detection of open and coastal seas interactions with highly complicated spatiotemporal variability.     

aiNet- and GIS-based regional prediction system for the spatial and temporal probability of rainfall-triggered landslides

We developed a real-time forecasting system, aiNet-GISPSRIL, for evaluating the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides. In this system, the aiNet (a kind of artificial neutral network based on a self-organizing system) and GIS are merged for integrating the rainfall conditions into various environmental factors that influence the landslide occurrence and for simulating the complex non-linear relationships between landslide occurrence and its related conditions. Zhejiang Province (101,800 km² in area), located in the southeast coastal region of China, is highly prone to the occurrence of landslides during intensive rainfall. Since 2003, the aiNet-GISPSRIL has been used to predict landslides during the rainy seasons in the region. The aiNet-GISPSRIL uses the regional 24-h forecast rainfall information and the real-time rainfall monitoring data from the rain-gauge network as its inputs, and then provides 24-h forecast of the landslide probability for every 1 × 1-km grid cell within the region. Verification studies on the performance of the aiNet-GISPSRIL show that the system has successfully predicted the dates and localities of 304 landslides (accounting for 66.2% of reported landslides during the period). During the period from 2003 to 2007, because the system provided the probability levels of landslide occurrences up to 24-h in advance, gave locations of potential landslides, and timely warned those individuals at high-risk areas, more than 1700 persons living in the risk sites had been evacuated to safe ground before the landslides occurred and thus casualty was avoided. This highly computerized, easy-operating system can be used as a prototype for developing forecasting systems in other regions that are prone to rainfall-triggered landslides.     

Estimates of non-tidal exchange transport between the Sea of Okhotsk and the North Pacific

The outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk to the North Pacific is important in characterising the surface-to-intermediate-depth water masses in the Pacific Ocean. The two basins are separated by the Kuril Islands with numerous straits, among which the Bussol and the Kruzenshterna Straits are deeper than 1000 m. The physics governing the transport between the two basins is complicated, but when the semidiurnal and diurnal tides are subtracted, the observed density and velocity structures across the Bussol Strait suggest a significant contribution from geostrophic balance. Using a two-layer model with the interface at 27.5σ _θ , part of the upper layer transport that is not driven by tides is estimated using two previously unexplored data sets: outputs from the Ocean General Circulation Model for Earth Simulator (OFES), and historical hydrographic data. The Pacific water flows into the Sea of Okhotsk through the northeastern straits. The greatest inflow is through the Kruzenshtern Strait, but the OFES results show that the contributions from other shallower straits are almost half of the Kruzenshtern inflow. Similarly, the outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk is through the southwestern straits of the Kuril Islands with the largest Bussol Strait contributing 60% of the total outflow. The OFES and hydrographic estimates agree that the exchange is strongest in February to March, with an inflow of about −6 to −12 Sv (negative indicates the flow from the North Pacific, 1 Sv = 10⁶ m³s⁻¹), and an outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk of about +8 to +9 Sv (positive indicates the flow from the Sea of Okhotsk), which is weakest in summer (−3 to +1 Sv through the northeastern straits and +0 to +3 Sv through the southwestern straits). The estimated seasonal variation is consistent with a simple analytic model driven by the difference in sea surface height between the two basins.     

SWAT‐simulated hydrological impact of land‐use change in the Zanjanrood basin,Northwest Iran

Understanding the impacts of land‐use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land‐use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AVSWAT2000). Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI‐2). Simulation results from January 1998 to December 2002 were used for parameter calibration, and then the model was validated for the period of January 2003 to December 2004. The predicted monthly streamflow matched the observed values: during calibration the correlation coefficient was 0·86 and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient 0·79, compared with 0·80 and 0·79, respectively, during validation. The model was used to simulate the main components of the hydrological cycle, in order to study the effects of land‐use changes in 1967, 1994 and 2007. The study reveals that during 1967 a 34·5% decrease of grassland with concurrent increases of shrubland (13·9%), rain‐fed agriculture (12·1%), bare ground (5·5%) irrigated agriculture (2·2%), and urban area (0·7%) led to a 33% increase in the amount of surface runoff and a 22% decrease in the groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the area of sub‐basins that was influenced by high runoff (14–28 mm) increased. The results indicate that the hydrological response to overgrazing and the replacing of rangelands (grassland and shrubland) with rain‐fed agriculture and bare ground (badlands) is nonlinear and exhibits a threshold effect. The runoff rises dramatically when more than 60% of the rangeland is removed. For groundwater this threshold lies at an 80% decrease in rangeland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Attenuation properties of viscoelastic material

The attenuation properties of eight rheological models have been studied theoretically. The expressions forQ have been obtained by using dissipated and stored energies and/or complex modulus for each model. The dependence ofQ on frequency has been demonstrated. The three-element elastic model appears to be the best one to represent the viscoelastic nature of the earth's material for a finite value ofQ.