Changes in social vulnerability to flooding: a quasi-experimental analysis

Natural Hazards - In this study we estimate how flooded areas evolve on measures of social vulnerability over both the long and short term in Calgary, Canada. The first part of our analysis...     

Probabilistic analysis of an 80,000 m2 landslide in Shiraz,Iran

Landslides - Each year, so many devastating landslides occur all around the world causing a lot of life and economical losses. Many of these landslides take place in large populated cities where...     

Bearing capacity performance of soft cohesive soil treated by kenaf limited life geotextile

Abstract

This article presents the performance of the short-term bearing capacity on soft clay soil treated by Kenaf geotextile under vertical loading via a small-scale modelling test at unit gravity. The ground model was formulated by consolidating kaolin in a rigid testing compartment. In the loading test, the strip footing was represented by a rigid footing. For the treated case, a series of tests were performed to examine the effects of the burial depth of the Kenaf geotextile on the bearing capacity of the soft soil. The Kenaf geotextile was laid beneath the rigid footing (at the ground surface) and at 50, 75 and 100?mm depth from the soil surface. All the measured results of the Kenaf geotextile treated ground were compared with the untreated ground. The incorporation of Kenaf fibre geotextile was observed to enhance the bearing capacity of soft cohesive clay up to 281% depending upon the depth of the installed geotextile. The geotextile at the surface provided the highest bearing capacity and sustained the highest displacement at failure. The outcome of this research will promote the use of natural fibre geotextiles as sustainable earth reinforcement in temporary earthwork applications.     

Multicomponent competitive monovalent cation exchange in hierarchical porous media with multimodal reactive mineral facies

This paper presents a stochastic model for multicomponent competitive monovalent cation exchange in hierarchical porous media. Reactive transport in porous media is highly sensitive to heterogeneities in physical and chemical properties, such as hydraulic conductivity (K), and cation exchange capacity (CEC). We use a conceptual model for multimodal reactive mineral facies and develop a Eulerian-based stochastic theory to analyze the transport of multiple cations in heterogeneous media with a hierarchical organization of reactive minerals. Numerical examples investigate the retardation factors and dispersivities in a chemical system made of three monovalent cations (Na⁺, K⁺, and Cs⁺). The results demonstrate how heterogeneity influences the transport of competitive monovalent cations, and highlight the importance of correlations between K and CEC. Further sensitivity analyses are presented investigating how the dispersion and retardation of each cation are affected by the means, variances, and integral scales of K and CEC. The volume fraction of organic matter is shown to be another important parameter. The Eulerian stochastic framework presented in this work clarifies the importance of each system parameters on the migration of cation plumes in formations with hierarchical organization of facies types. Our stochastic approach could be used as an alternative to numerical simulations for 3D reactive transport in hierarchical porous media, which become prohibitively expensive for the multicomponent applications considered in this work.     

Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of stomach cancer incidence in Iran, 2003–2010

Stomach cancer is the second most common cancer in Iranian men and the fourth most common cancer in Iranian women. The incidence rate of this cancer in Iranian men is almost 2.5 times that in women. The objective of this study was to investigate the trend of stomach cancer incidence rate in Iran in an 8-year time period (2003–2010) and also update the incidence estimates of stomach cancer. Data from a total number of 41,830 patients diagnosed with stomach cancer according to the International Classification of Diseases (C16) in 2003–2010 were analyzed. We used Bayesian spatial and Bayesian spatio-temporal models to study the relative risk and trend of stomach cancer incidence rate in Iran. Out of 41,830 stomach cancer registered patients, 72% were male. The average smoothed SIRs were 0.79, 0.82 and 0.78 for the general, female and male population, respectively. This shows a nearly stable incidence rate. The northwest of Iran had the highest incidence rate of stomach cancer. The trend of this rate was declining to the lowest rate in the southeast of the country. The estimated values of coefficient of the trend term for general, female and male population in this model were 0.0085, ? 0.018 and 0.0041, which indicate almost a stable fixed trend. The map of temporal trends also showed that although the incidence rate of this cancer is to some extent stable, in general, in the central and in the east of the country the incidence relative risk has increased over time. The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection, Lower socioeconomic status and Iodine deficiency were speculated to be relevant factors for the high incidence rates of stomach cancer in the northwest of Iran. Preventive measures in the north and northwest of Iran could have an effect on controlling this cancer in these areas.     

Relocation of hypocenters from DOMERAPI and BMKG networks: a preliminary result from DOMERAPI project

Merapi volcano located in central Java, Indonesia, is one of the most active stratovolcanoes in the world. Many Earth scientists have conducted studies on this volcano using various methods. The geological features around Merapi are very attractive to be investigated because they have been formed by a complex tectonic process and volcanic activities since tens of millions of years ago. The southern mountain range, Kendeng basin and Opak active fault located around the study area resulted from these processes. DOMERAPI project was conducted to understand deep magma sources of the Merapi volcano comprehensively. The DOMERAPI network was running from October 2013 to mid-April 2015 by deploying 46 broad-band seismometers around the volcano. Several steps, i.e., earthquake event identification, arrival time picking of P and S waves, hypocenter determination and hypocenter relocation, were carried out in this study. We used Geiger’s method (Geiger 1912) for hypocenter determination and double-difference method for hypocenter relocation. The relocation result will be used to carry out seismic tomographic imaging of structures beneath the Merapi volcano and its surroundings. For the hypocenter determination, the DOMERAPI data were processed simultaneously with those from the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) seismic network in order to minimize the azimuthal gap. We found that the majority of earthquakes occurred outside the DOMERAPI network. There are 464 and 399 earthquakes obtained before and after hypocenter relocation, respectively. The hypocenter relocation result successfully detects some tectonic features, such as a nearly vertical cluster of events indicating a subduction-related backthrust to the south of central Java and a cluster of events to the east of Opak fault suggesting that the fault has an eastward dip.     

Evaluation of ICA and CEM algorithms with Landsat-8/ASTER data for geological mapping in inaccessible regions

Many regions remain poorly studied in terms of geological mapping and mineral exploration in inaccessible regions especially in the Arctic and Antarctica due to harsh conditions and logistic difficulties. Application of specialized image processing techniques is capable of revealing the hidden linear mixing spectra in multispectral and hyperspectral satellite images. In this study, the applications of Independent component analysis (ICA) and Constrained Energy Minimization (CEM) algorithms were evaluated for Landsat-8 and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) remote sensing data for geological mapping in Morozumi Range and Helliwell Hills areas, Northern Victoria Land (NVL), Antarctica. The results of this investigation demonstrate the capability of the two algorithms in distinguishing pixel and subpixel targets in the multispectral satellite data. The application of the methods for identifying poorly exposed geologic materials and subpixel exposures of alteration minerals has invaluable implications for geological mapping and mineral exploration in inaccessible regions.     

Sample geometric mean versus sample median in closed form framework of seismic reliability evaluation: a case study comparison

Earthquake engineers have made a lot of efforts to derive a comprehensive set of closed form expressions for performance evaluation of frames, which are already presented in guidelines such as SAC/FEMA. These analytical expressions have been developed to estimate the annual probability of exceeding a limit state. In the process of such seismic assessments, some essential assumptions are adopted to simplify the process. One of these fundamental assumptions declares that drift demand at any seismic intensity level follows a lognormal distribution around its median. To investigate the validity of this assumption, this paper describes a case study of the types of errors that could be produced by using the sample median as the central tendency. Based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method as well as other statistical evidence, this paper proposes the use of the sample geometric mean instead of the sample median for the central tendency. Further, the results of seismic reliability evaluations of 4 sample frames are compared based on utilizing both the geometric mean and the sample median. In this process, both first and second order power law fits of the hazard curve are implemented to compare the effects of hazard estimation and the selection of the central tendency on the final results. It is observed in the application example that the sample geometric mean could lead to more accurate results.     

Chemical models for the contracting W3 IRS4

We have studied the chemical evolution in the central core of a contracting cloud representing W3 IRS4. We modified the equation of temperature to satisfy the physical conditions of W3 IRS4. The chemical rate equations and the hydrodynamics are integrated simultaneously. The contraction is followed from a very low density of n = 10 cm⁻³ to high core density of n = 10⁶ cm⁻³. The chemical evolution is studied for various chemical conditions, including both the effects of varying cosmic ray ionization rate and the effect of ion–dipole molecule collisions.

The main results by using the more extensive chemical network with the most updating reaction rates show that the calculated fractional abundances are in agreement with observation at intermediate and enhanced cosmic ray ionization rate at high depletion of elemental atoms.     

Effect of time on dynamic properties of cohesive soils using improved transfer function estimators

Improved estimators of the transfer function (H2, H3, H4), in addition to the conventional estimator (H1), were used to evaluate the dynamic soil properties and to study the effect of confinement duration on damping and shear modulus of soils. In this study, two types of cohesive soils, a kaolinite and a bentonite, were tested using a resonant column apparatus under random torsional excitation conditions. Root meam square strain levels in the range of 10⁻³–10⁻² and confining pressures in the range of 34.47–150 kPa were considered. The confinement duration ranged from 500 to 20 000 min. The results of this study indicate that as time increases, the difference in damping values obtained by the various estimators of the transfer function decreases, whereas the shear moduli are not influenced by the variation in confinement duration.