Reply to discussion on “Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses” by F. Bozzano,P. Mazzanti,and S. Moretto

■■■The paper “Discussion to: Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli” by Bozzano et al. brings forward new considerations on an issue of extreme concern in landslide risk management. To this day, the ability to predict catastrophic landslide failures from slope surface displacements is a problem dictated more by practical constraints rather than by theoretical uncertainties. In this sense, the development of data interpretation practices is crucial. This short reply provides a few further insights with regard to this subject, also in the context of the recently published literature.     

Testing the predictive power of seagrass depth limit models

The power of equations predicting seagrass depth limit (Z_c) from light extinction (K _z) was tested on data on seagrass depth limits collected from the literature. The test data set comprised 424 reports of seagrass colonization depth and water transparency, including data for 10 seagrass species. This data set confirmed the strong negative relationship betweenZ _c andK _z. The regression equation in Duarte (1991) overestimated the realized seagrass colonization depths at colonization depths < 5 m, while there was no prediction bias above this threshold. These results indicated that seagrass colonizing turbid waters (K _z 0.27 m^-1) have higher apparent light requirements than those growing in clearer waters. The relationship between seagrass colonization depth and light attenuation shifts at a threshold of light attenuation of 0.27 m^-1, requiring separate equations to predictZ _c for seagrass growing in more turbid waters and clearer waters, and to set targets for seagrass restoration and conservation efforts.     

Carbon losses in soils previously exposed to elevated atmospheric CO2 in a chaparral ecosystem: Potential implications for a sustained biospheric C sink

Between 1996 and 2001 an experimental set up in a chaparral community near San Diego, CA, examined various plant and ecosystem responses to CO₂ concentrations ranging from 250 to 750 μl l^− 1. These experiments indicated a significant increase in soil C sequestration as CO₂ rose above the ambient levels. In 2003, two years after the cessation of the CO₂ treatments, we returned to this site to examine soil C dynamics with a particular emphasis on stability of specific pools of C. We found that in as little as two years, C content in the surface soils (0–15 cm) of previously CO₂ enriched plots had dropped to levels below those of the ambient and pretreatment soils. In contrast, C retained in response to CO₂ enrichment was more durable in the deeper soil layers (> 25 cm deep) where both organic and inorganic C were on average 26% and 55% greater, respectively, than C content of ambient plots. Using stable isotope tracers, we found that treatment C represented 25% of total soil C and contributed to 55% of soil CO₂ efflux, suggesting that most of treatment C is readily accessible to decomposers. We also found that, C present before CO₂ fumigation was decomposed at a faster rate in the plots that were exposed to elevated CO₂ than in those exposed to ambient CO₂ levels. To our knowledge, this is the first report that allows for a detail accounting of soil C after ceasing CO₂ treatments. Our study provides a unique insight to how stable the accrued soil C is as CO₂ increases in the atmosphere.     

Geomaterials related to photovoltaics: a nanostructured Fe-bearing kuramite,Cu<Subscript>3</Subscript>SnS<Subscript>4</Subscript>

The successful synthesis of nanoparticles of Fe-bearing kuramite, (Cu,Fe)₃SnS₄, is reported in this study. Nanocrystalline powders were obtained through a mild, environmentally friendly and scalable solvothermal approach, in a single run. The sample was the object of a multidisciplinary investigation, including X-ray diffraction and absorption, scanning electron microscopy and microanalysis, electron paramagnetic resonance, diffuse reflectance and Mössbauer spectroscopy as well as SQUID magnetometry. The nanoparticles consist of pure Fe-bearing kuramite, exhibiting tetragonal structure. The valence state of the metal cations was assessed to be Cu⁺, Sn⁴⁺ and Fe³⁺. The material presents a band gap value of 1.6 eV, which is fully compatible with solar cell applications. The uptake of Fe by nanokuramite opens a compositional field where the physical properties can be tuned. We thus foster the application of Fe-bearing nanokuramite for photovoltaics and energy storage purposes.     

Net primary production and decomposition of salt marshes of the Ebre delta (Catalonia,Spain)

Net primary production was measured in three characteristic salt marshes of the Ebre delta: anArthrocnemum macrostachyum salt marsh,A. macrostachyum-Sarcocornia fruticosa mixed salt marsh andS. fruticosa salt marsh. Above-ground and belowground biomass were harvested every 3 mo for 1 yr. Surface litter was also collected from each plot. Aboveground biomass was estimated from an indirect non-destructive method, based on the relationship between standing biomass and height of the vegetation. Decomposition of aboveground and belowground components was studied by the disappearance of plant material from litter bags in theS. fruticosa plot. Net primary production (aboveground and belowground) was calculated using the Smalley method. Standing biomass, litter, and primary production increased as soil salinity decreased. The annual average total aboveground plus belowground biomass was 872 g m⁻² in theA. macrostachyum marsh, 1,198 g m⁻² in theA. macrostachyum-S. fruticosa mixed marsh, and 3,766 g m⁻² in theS. fruticosa biomass (aboveground plus belowground) was 226, 445, and 1,094 g m⁻², respectively. Total aboveground plus below-ground net primary production was 240, 1,172, and 1,531 g m⁻² yr⁻¹. There was an exponential loss of weight during decomposition. Woody stems and roots, the most recalcitrant material, had 70% and 83% of the original material remaining after one year. Only 20–22% of leafy stem weight remained after one year. When results from the Mediterranean are compared to other salt marshes dominated by shrubbyChenopodiaceae in Mediterranean-type climates, a number of similarities emerge. There are similar zonation patterns, with elevation and maximum aboveground biomass and primary production occurring in the middle marsh. This is probably because of stress produced by waterlogging in the low marsh and by hypersalinity in the upper marsh.     

The Calatabiano landslide (southern Italy): preliminary GB-InSAR monitoring data and remote 3D mapping

On 24 October 2015, following a period of heavy rainfall, a landslide occurred in the Calatabiano Municipality (Sicily Island, Southern Italy), causing the rupture of a water pipeline supplying water to the city of Messina. Following this event, approximately 250,000 inhabitants of the city suffered critical water shortages for several days. Consequently, on 6 November 2015, a state of emergency was declared (O.C.D.P. 295/2015) by the National Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). During the emergency management phase, a provisional by-pass, consisting of three 350-m long pipes passing through the landslide area, was constructed to restore water to the city. Furthermore, on 11 November 2015, a landslide remote-sensing monitoring system was installed with the following purposes: (i) analyse the landslide geomorphological and kinematic features in order to assess the residual landslide risk and (ii) support the early warning procedures needed to ensure the safety of the personnel involved in the by-pass construction and the landslide stabilization works. The monitoring system was based on the combined use of Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In this work, the preliminary results of the monitoring activities and a remote 3D map of the landslide area are presented.     

Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.     

Deep incision in an Aptian carbonate succession indicates major sea‐level fall in the Cretaceous

Long‐term relative sea‐level cycles (0·5 to 6 Myr) have yet to be fully understood for the Cretaceous. During the Aptian, in the northern Maestrat Basin (Eastern Iberian Peninsula), fault‐controlled subsidence created depositional space, but eustasy governed changes in depositional trends. Relative sea‐level history was reconstructed by sequence stratigraphic analysis. Two forced regressive stages of relative sea‐level were recognized within three depositional sequences. The first stage is late Early Aptian age (intra Dufrenoyia furcata Zone) and is characterized by foreshore to upper shoreface sedimentary wedges, which occur detached from a highstand carbonate platform, and were deposited above basin marls. The amplitude of relative sea‐level drop was in the order of tens of metres, with a duration of <1 Myr. The second stage of relative sea‐level fall occurred within the Late Aptian and is recorded by an incised valley that, when restored to its pre‐contractional attitude, was >2 km wide and cut ≥115 m down into the underlying Aptian succession. With the subsequent transgression, the incision was backfilled with peritidal to shallow subtidal deposits. The changes in depositional trends, lithofacies evolution and geometric relation of the stratigraphic units characterized are similar to those observed in coeval rocks within the Maestrat Basin, as well as in other correlative basins elsewhere. The pace and magnitude of the two relative sea‐level drops identified fall within the glacio‐eustatic domain. In the Maestrat Basin, terrestrial palynological studies provide evidence that the late Early and Late Aptian climate was cooler than the earliest part of the Early Aptian and the Albian Stage, which were characterized by warmer environmental conditions. The outcrops documented here are significant because they preserve the results of Aptian long‐term sea‐level trends that are often only recognizable on larger scales (i.e. seismic), such as for the Arabian Plate.     

Soil-gas radon anomalies in three study areas of Central-Northern Calabria (Southern Italy)

Soil-gas radon concentrations and exhalation rates have generally been observed to be anomalously high along active faults in many parts of the world. The soil-gas method is based on the principle that faults and fractures in rocks are highly permeable pathways along which gases can migrate upward from deep crust and mantle to soil cover, retaining their source signatures. The present study summarizes the influence of fault zones on anomalous radon concentrations in soil by integrated geophysical and geo-structural analyses in three study areas of Central-Northern Calabria (Southern Italy). Soil-gas radon surveys have been carried out by means of an alpha scintillation counting system, at 12,509 locations between 2002 and 2004. A geostatistical approach has been used to estimate the spatial distribution of soil radon concentrations. Relations among soil-gas distribution and geo-structural features have been evaluated by ordinary multi-Gaussian kriging. Highest soil radon concentrations (ca. 90 kBq m^?3) have been measured in the Rossanese sector. In the three study areas, no appreciable differences can be noticed among lithotypes, with the highest concentration values (ca. 89 kBq m^?3) measured in alluvial deposit and in clay. Measurements of soil-gas radon reveal anomalies clearly connected to the tectonic structures. Increased signals are linearly distributed along regional WNW–ESE trending shear zones, with main pathways of concentration also recognizable along the E–W fault system in the Rossanese sector, the N–S fault system in the Crati Graben and the Catanzaro Trough, and the NE–SW fault system in the Catanzaro Trough. The distribution of epicentres of historical earthquakes occurred between 1184 and 2001 confirms the recent activity of the same fault systems. Soil-gas radon concentrations generally increase, as expected, with decreasing distance to the faults.