Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.     

The Pedagogical Benefits of SimCity in Urban Geography Education

This article investigated the pedagogical potential of the SimCity simulation game in an urban geography course. University students used SimCity to build their own cities and applied a wide range of theories to support their urban structures. Moreover, the students critically evaluated the logic and functioning of the SimCity simulation compared to real-world contexts and urban geography principles. The students believed the SimCity activity provided them with opportunities to promote their geographic creativity, resulting in diverse, unique, and interesting cities. The findings demonstrate that the use of SimCity can be an effective tool for geography education.     

Carbon and nitrogen dynamics of the intertidal seagrass, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera japonica</Emphasis>, on the southern coast of the Korean peninsula

Seagrasses require a large amount of nutrient assimilation to support high levels of production, and thus nutrient limitation for growth often occurs in seagrass habitats. Seagrasses can take up nutrients from both the water column and sediments. However, since seagrasses inhabiting in the intertidal zones are exposed to the air during low tide, the intertidal species may exhibit significantly different carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics compared to the subtidal species. To examine C and N dynamics of the intertidal seagrass, Zostera japonica, C and N content and stable isotope ratios of above- and below-ground tissues were measured monthly at the three intertidal zones in Koje Bay on the southern coast of Korea. The C and N content and stable isotope (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) ratios of seagrass tissues exhibited significant seasonal variations. Both leaf and rhizome C content were not significantly correlated with productivity. Leaf δ¹³C values usually exhibited negative correlations with leaf productivity. These results of tissue C content and δ¹³C values suggest that photosynthesis of Z. japonica in the study site was not limited by inorganic C supply, and sufficient inorganic C was provided from the atmosphere. The tissue N content usually exhibited negative correlations with leaf productivity except at the upper intertidal zone, suggesting that Z. japonica growth was probably limited by N availability during high growing season. In the upper intertidal zone, no correlations between leaf productivity and tissue elemental content and stable isotope ratios were observed due to the severely suppressed growth caused by strong desiccation stress.     

Vertical distribution of giant jellyfish, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nemopilema nomurai</Emphasis> using acoustics and optics

Nemopilema nomurai jellyfish, which are believed to complete their development in the East China Sea, have started migrating into the Yellow Sea in recent years. We obtained biomass estimates of this species in the Yellow Sea using bottom trawl fishing gear and sighting surveys over a 5-year period. These methods are effective for obtaining N. nomurai jellyfish density estimates and information about the community distribution near the bottom or surface of the sea. To verify the vertical distributions of giant jellyfish between, we used hydroacoustic equipment, including an optical stereo camera system attached to a towed sledge and an echo counting method with scientific echosounder system. Acoustic and optical data were collected while the vessel moved at 3 knots, from which the distribution and density of N. nomurai jellyfish were analyzed. Subsequently, the camera system was towed from a 7 m mean depth to sea level, with the detection range of the acoustic system extending from an 8 m depth to the bottom surface. The optical and acoustic methods indicated the presence of vertical distribution of 0.11³ (inds/m³) and 0.064 (inds/m3), respectively. However, the vertical distribution indicated that around 93% of individuals occurred at a depth range of 10–40 m; thus, a 2.4-fold greater density was estimated by acoustic echo counting compared to the optical method.     

Population structure of the Korean gizzard shad, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Konosirus punctatus</Emphasis> (Clupeiformes,Clupeidae) using multivariate morphometric analysis

The gizzard shad, Konosirus punctatus, is one of the most important fish species in Korea, China, Japan and Taiwan, and therefore the implementation of an appropriate population structure analysis is both necessary and fitting. In order to clarify the current distribution range for the two lineages of the Korean gizzard shad (Myoung and Kim 2014), we conducted a multivariate morphometric analysis by locality and lineage. We analyzed 17 morphometric and 5 meristic characters of 173 individuals, which were sampled from eight localities in the East Sea, the Yellow Sea and the Korean Strait. Unlike population genetics studies, the canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) results showed that the two morphotypes were clearly segregated by the center value “0” of CAN1, of which morphotype A occurred from the Yellow Sea to the western Korean Strait with negative values, and morphotype B occurred from the East Sea to the eastern Korean Strait with positive values even though there exists an admixture zone in the eastern Korean Strait. Further studies using more sensitive markers such as microsatellite DNA are required in order to define the true relationship between the two lineages.     

Latitudinal change in benthic foraminiferal fauna by ITCZ movement along the ~131°W transect in the equatorial Pacific Ocean

Modern and fossil benthic foraminifera were examined from nine surface sediments and two piston cores along the ~131°W transect in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This study was conducted to clarify the biotic response of abyssal benthic foraminifera during the last 220 ka to changes in the seasonal extent of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The abundance of modern benthic foraminifera was high at stations between the equator and 6°N, whereas it was low at stations north of 6°N, which is generally consistent with the latitudinal CaCO₃ distribution of surface sediments. The northward increase of Epistominella exigua from the equator to ~6°N is similar to the seasonal variations in chlorophyll-a concentrations in the surface water and ITCZ position along ~131°W. This species was more common at core PC5103 (~6°N) than at core PC5101 (~2°N) after ~130 ka, when the Shannon-Wiener diversity (H’) between the two cores started to diverge. Hence, the presentday latitudinal difference in benthic foraminifera (E. exigua and species diversity) between ~2°N and ~6°N along ~131°W has been generally established since ~130 ka. According to the modern relationship between the seasonality of primary production and seasonal ITCZ variations in the northern margin of the ITCZ, the latitudinal divergence of benthic foraminiferal fauna between ~2°N and ~6°N since ~130 ka appear to have been induced by more distinct variations in the seasonal movement of ITCZ.