Hammer Efficiency and Correction Factors for the TxDOT Texas Cone Penetration Test

This study analyzes blowcount data from instrumented Texas Cone Penetration (TCP) tests. TCP hammer efficiency, rod length influence on the hammer efficiency, and overburden pressure correction factors for the TCP blowcounts (N_TCP) are explored. Results are compared to published correction factors for the standard penetration test (SPT). The final dataset analyzed for this study consisted of 293 TCP tests from which 135 tests were instrumented. TCP hammer efficiency values for automatic trip hammers ranged from 74 to 101% with an average of 89%. Analyses showed a statistically-significant relationship between the TCP hammer efficiency and the rod length below ground surface. Statistical models were developed for undifferentiated soils, and corresponding rod length correction factors for the TCP test (C_R-TCP) were obtained ranging from 0.90 to 1.00. In a second analysis, the relationship between the overburden pressure and N_TCP was explored and a mathematical expression for the overburden correction factor for the TCP blowcount value (C_N-TCP) was determined. This work represents the first study where corrections to N_TCP are explored, and the outcome of this research benefits the geotechnical engineering community using the TCP test and its associated foundation design method.     

Storm surge prediction using an artificial neural network model and cluster analysis

In this study, an artificial neural network model was developed to predict storm surges in all Korean coastal regions, with a particular focus on regional extension. The cluster neural network model (CL-NN) assessed each cluster using a cluster analysis methodology. Agglomerative clustering was used to determine the optimal clustering of 21 stations, based on a centroid-linkage method of hierarchical clustering. Finally, CL-NN was used to predict storm surges in cluster regions. In order to validate model results, sea levels predicted by the CL-NN model were compared with results using conventional harmonic analysis and the artificial neural network model in each region (NN). The values predicted by the NN and CL-NN models were closer to observed data than values predicted using harmonic analysis. Data such as root mean square error and correlation coefficient varied only slightly between CL-NN and NN model results. These findings demonstrate that cluster analysis and the CL-NN model can be used to predict regional storm surges and may be used to develop a forecast system.     

Methods for ultimate limit state assessment of ships and ship-shaped offshore structures: Part I—Unstiffened plates

The present paper is Part I of a series of three papers prepared by the authors on the methods useful for ultimate limit state assessment of marine structures, that have been developed in the literature during the last few decades. It is considered that such methods are now mature enough to enter day-by-day design and strength assessment practice. The aims of the three papers are to conduct some benchmark studies of such methods on ultimate limit state assessment of (unstiffened) plates, stiffened panels, and hull girders of ships and ship-shaped offshore structures, using some candidate methods such as ANSYS nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA), DNV PULS, ALPS/ULSAP, ALPS/HULL, and IACS common structural rules (CSR) methods. As an illustrative example, an AFRAMAX-class hypothetical double hull oil tanker structure designed by CSR method is studied. In the present paper (Part I), the ultimate limit state assessment of unstiffened plates under combined biaxial compression and lateral pressure loads is emphasized using ANSYS, DNV PULS, and ALPS/ULSAP methods, and their resulting computations are compared. Part II will deal with methods for the ultimate limit state assessment of stiffened panels under combined biaxial compression and lateral pressure using ANSYS, DNV PULS, and ALPS/ULSAP methods, and Part III will treat methods for the progressive collapse analysis of the hull structure using ANSYS, ALPS/HULL, and IACS CSR methods.     

Combined effect of the East Atlantic/West Russia and Western Pacific teleconnections on the East Asian winter monsoon

This study investigates the individual effects of the East Atlantic/West Russia (EATL/WRUS) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection patterns and their combined effect on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The contributions of the respective EATL/WRUS and WP teleconnection patterns to the EAWM are revealed by removing the dependence on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a linear regression, which are named as N_EATL/WRUS and N_WP, respectively. This is because the EATL/WRUS (WP) is closely linked to the Arctic (tropics) region. A significant increase (decrease) in temperature over East Asia (EA) corresponding to a weak (strong) EAWM is associated with the N_EATL/WRUS and N_WP teleconnection patterns during the positive (negative) phases. In order to examine impacts of these two teleconnections on the EAWM, three types of effects are reconstructed on the basis of ± 0.5 standard deviation: 1) Combined effect, 2) N_EATL/WRUS effect, and 3) N_WP effect. The positive N_EATL/WRUS teleconnection induces to a weakened Siberian High and a shallow EA trough at the mid-troposphere through wave propagation, leading to the weak EAWM. During the positive N_WP pattern, warm air from the tropics flows toward the EA along western flank of an anomalous anticyclone over the North Pacific that is relevant to the meridional shift of the Aleutian Low. When the two mid-latitude teleconnections have the in-phase combination, the increase in temperature over EA appears to be more pronounced than the individual effects by transporting warm air from tropics via strong southeasterly wind anomalies induced by anomalous zonal pressure gradient between the Siberian High and Aleutian Low. Therefore, the impact of the mid-latitude teleconnections on the EAWM becomes robust and linearly superimposed, unlike a nonlinear in-phase combined effect of the AO and ENSO.     

Comparison of extended medium-range forecast skill between KMA ensemble,ocean coupled ensemble,and GloSea5

This article describes a three way inter-comparison of forecast skill on an extended medium-range time scale using the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) operational ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems (i.e., atmosphere-only global ensemble prediction system (EPSG) and ocean-atmosphere coupledEPSG) and KMA operational seasonal prediction system, the Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). The main motivation is to investigate whether the ensemble NWP system can provide advantage over the existing seasonal prediction system for the extended medium-range forecast (30 days) even with putting extra resources in extended integration or coupling with ocean with NWP system. Two types of evaluation statistics are examined: the basic verification statistics - the anomaly correlation and RMSE of 500-hPa geopotential height and 1.5-meter surface temperature for the global and East Asia area, and the other is the Real-time Multivariate Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) indices (RMM1 and RMM2) - which is used to examine the MJO prediction skill. The MJO is regarded as a main source of forecast skill in the tropics linked to the mid-latitude weather on monthly time scale. Under limited number of experiment cases, the coupled NWP extends the forecast skill of the NWP by a few more days, and thereafter such forecast skill is overtaken by that of the seasonal prediction system. At present stage, it seems there is little gain from the coupled NWP even though more resources are put into it. Considering this, the best combination of numerical product guidance for operational forecasters for an extended medium-range is extension of the forecast lead time of the current ensemble NWP (EPSG) up to 20 days and use of the seasonal prediction system (GloSea5) forecast thereafter, though there exists a matter of consistency between the two systems.     

The skill of atmospheric linear inverse models in hindcasting the Madden–Julian Oscillation

A suite of statistical atmosphere-only linear inverse models of varying complexity are used to hindcast recent MJO events from the Year of Tropical Convection and the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability/Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation mission periods, as well as over the 2000–2009 time period. Skill exists for over two weeks, competitive with the skill of some numerical models in both bivariate correlation and root-mean-squared-error scores during both observational mission periods. Skill is higher during mature Madden–Julian Oscillation conditions, as opposed to during growth phases, suggesting that growth dynamics may be more complex or non-linear since they are not as well captured by a linear model. There is little prediction skill gained by including non-leading modes of variability.     

Physicochemical characteristics for adsorption of MTBE and cadmium on clay minerals

Physicochemical characteristics relevant to the adsorption of MTBE and Cd on three types of clay minerals were investigated. The characteristics were examined through batch adsorption tests conducted under various experimental conditions such as adsorption time, ratio of solution-to soil, concentration of solutes, concentration of organic matters, pH, and zeta potential. The adsorption efficiency of MTBE or Cd on three types of clays decreased in response to an increase of the ratio of solution-to-soil; nevertheless, the adsorbed amounts inversely increased. MTBE was adsorbed on clays in an increasing order of vermiculite, bentonite, and CTAB-bentonite. However, Cd was adsorbed in a different order of bentonite, vermiculite, and CTAB-bentonite. The adsorption of MTBE was well fitted with the Freundlich model, whereas the Cd was more closely suited to a Langmuir equation. By adding humic acids of 1 and 5%, MTBE was significantly adsorbed on bentonite and vermiculite, respectively, but beyond that, its adsorption was diminished. In comparison, the adsorption on CTAB-bentonite was increased in proportion to the humic acids addition. Likewise, the addition of humic acids acted to increase the adsorption of Cd regardless of the types of adsorbent, where up to 90% of Cd was removed at pH 10. Further increase of pH declined the degree of zeta potential, while increasing Cd concentration also lowered the zeta potential, which consequently contributes in enhancing the adsorption efficiency of Cd on clays.     

Genetic Implications of Two Different Ultramafic Rocks from Hongseong Area in the Southwestern Gyeonggi Massif, South Korea

Two distinct ultramafic bodies occur in Baekdong and Bibong in the Hongseong area within Gyeonggi massif of South Korea. The Hongseong area is now extensively documented as an extension of the Dabie-Sulu collision belt in China. The Baekdong ultramafic body has a NWW elongation direction. This elongation trend is similar to the general trend of the Dabie-Sulu collision belt. The Bibong ultramafic body is elongated in a NNE direction and runs parallel to the direction of the main fault in the study area. The Baekdong ultramafic bodies show porphyroclastic and mylonitic textures while those at Bibong exhibit a mosaic texture. Both were grouped into peridotite and serpentinite based on their modal abundance of serpentine. In the olivine (Fo) vs. spinel [Cr# = Cr/ (Cr+Al)] diagram, both ultramafic rocks fall with in olivine spinel mantle array. The compositions of olivine, orthopyroxene and spinel indicate that the Baekdong ultramafic rock formed in deeper parts of the upper-mantle under passive margin tectonic setting. The SREE content of Baekdong ultramafic rock vary from 0.19 to 5.7, exhibits a flat REE pattern in the chondrite-normalized diagram, and underwent 5% partial melting. Conversely, large variation in SREE (0.5 21.53) was observed for Bibong ultramafic rocks with an enrichment of LREE with a negative slope and underwent 17 24% partial melting. The Baekdong ultramafic rocks experienced three stages of metamorphism after a high pressure residual mantle stage. The first stage of metamorphism occurred under the eclogite-granulite transitional facies (1123 911°C, >16.3 kb) the second under the granulite facies (825 740°C, 16.3 11.8 kb) and the third is the retrogressive metamorphism under amphibolite facies (782 718°C, 8.2 8.7 kb) metamorphism. The Baekdong ultramafic rocks had undergone high-P/T metamorphism during subduction of the South China Block, and experienced a fast isothermal uplift, and finally cooled down isobarically. Evidences for metamorphism were not identified in Bibong ultramafic rocks. Hence, the Baekdong ultramafic rocks with in the Hongseong area may indicate a link on the Korean counterpart of Dabie-Sulu collision belt between North and South China Blocks.     

Development of statistical prediction models for Changma precipitation: An ensemble approach

An ensemble statistical forecast scheme with a one-month lead is developed to predict year-to-year variations of Changma rainfall over the Korean peninsula. Spring sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic, the North Pacific and the tropical Pacific Ocean have been proposed as useful predictors in a previous study. Through a forward-stepwise regression method, four additional springtime predictors are selected: the northern Indian Ocean (NIO) SST, the North Atlantic SST change (NAC), the snow cover anomaly over the Eurasian continent (EUSC), and the western North Pacific outgoing longwave radiation anomaly (WNP (OLR)). Using these, three new prediction models are developed. A simple arithmetic ensemble mean produces much improved forecast skills compared to the original prediction model of Lee and Seo (2013). Skill scores measured by temporal correlation and MSSS (mean square error skill score) are improved by about 9% and 17%, respectively. The GMSS (Gerrity skill score) and hit rate based on a tercile prediction validation scheme are also enhanced by about 19% and 13%, respectively. The reversed NIO, reversed WNP (OLR), and reversed NAC are all related to the enhancement of a cyclonic circulation anomaly to the south or southwest of the Korean peninsula, which induces southeasterly moisture flux into the peninsula and increasing Changma precipitation. The EUSC predictor induces an enhancement of the Okhotsk Sea high downstream and thus strengthening of Changma front.     

North Atlantic winter eddy-driven jet and atmospheric blocking variability in the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble simulations

Climate Dynamics - The atmospheric jet and blocking distributions, especially in the North Atlantic sector, have been challenging features for a climate model to realistically reproduce. This study...