Fine-resolution simulation of surface current and sea ice in the Arctic Mediterranean Seas

A fine-resolution model is developed for ocean circulation simulation in the National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Chinese Academy of Sciences, and is applied to simulate surface current and sea ice variations in the Arctic Mediterranean Seas. A dynamic sea ice model in elastic-viscous-plastic rheology and a thermodynamic sea ice model are employed. A 200-year simulation is performed and a dimatological average of a 10-year period (141st-150th) is presented with focus on sea ice concentration and surface current variations in the Arctic Mediterranean Seas. The model is able to simulate well the East Greenland Current, Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift, but the simulated West Spitsbergen Current is small and weak. In the March climatology, the sea ice coverage can be simulated well except for a bit more ice in east of Spitsbergen Island. The result is also good for the September scenario except for less ice concentration east of Greenland and greater ice concentration near the ice margin. The extra ice east of Spitsbergen Island is caused by sea ice current convergence forced by atmospheric wind stress.     

Assessment on agricultural drought risk based on variable fuzzy sets model

Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was established according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respectively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combination weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the assessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.     

Fault type analysis along the San Andreas Fault zone: A numerical approach

Finite Element (FE) modeling under plane stress condition is used to analyze the fault type variation with depth along and around the San Andreas Fault (SAF) zone. In this simulation elastic rheology was used and was thought justifiable as the variation in depth from 0.5 km to 20 km was considered. Series of calculations were performed with the variation in domain properties. Three types of models were created based on simple geological map of California, namely, 1) single domain model considering whole California as one homogeneous domain, 2) three domains model including the North American plate, Pacific plate, and SAF zone as separate domains, and 3) Four domains model including the three above plus the Garlock Fault zone. Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion and Byerlee's law were used for the calculation of failure state. All the models were driven by displacement boundary condition imposing the fixed North American plate and Pacific plate motion along N34°W vector up to the northern terminus of SAF and N50°E vector motion for the subducting the Gorda and Juan de Fuca plates. Our simulated results revealed that as the depth increased, the fault types were generally normal, and at shallow depth greater strike slip and some thrust faults were formed. It is concluded that SAF may be terminated as normal fault at depth although the surface expression is clearly strike slip.     

Numerical simulation of the genesis of typhoon Durian (2001) over the South China Sea: The effect of sea surface temperature

Typhoon Durian (2001),which formed over the South China Sea (SCS),was simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The genesis of typhoon Durian which formed in the monsoon trough was reproduced by numerical simulations. The simulated results agree reasonably well with observations. Two numerical experiments in which the sea surface temperature (SST) was either decreased or increased were performed to investigate the impact of the SST on the genesis of the ty-phoon. When the SST was decreased by 5℃ uniformly for all grids in the model,the winds calculated became divergent in the lower troposphere and convergent in the upper troposphere,creating conditions in which the amount of total latent heat release (TLHR) was low and the tropical cyclone (TC) could not be formed. This simulation shows the importance of the convergence in the lower tropo-sphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere for the genesis of the initial vortex. When the SST was increased by 1℃ uni-formly for all grids,a stronger typhoon was generated in the results with an increase of about 10 m s-1 in the maximum surface wind speed. Only minor differences in intensity were noted during the first 54 h in the simulation with the warmer SST,but apparent dif-ferences in intensity occurred after 54 h when the vortex began to strengthen to typhoon strength. This experiment shows that warmer SST will speed the strengthening from tropical storm strength to typhoon strength and increase the maximum intensity reached,while only minor impact can be seen during the earlier stage of genesis before the TC reaches the tropical storm strength. The results sug-gest that the amount of TLHR may be the dominant factor in determining the formation and the intensification of the TC.     

Impact of recharge water temperature on bioclogging during managed aquifer recharge: a laboratory study

To investigate the effect of recharge water temperature on bioclogging processes and mechanisms during seasonal managed aquifer recharge (MAR), two groups of laboratory percolation experiments were conducted: a winter test and a summer test. The temperatures were controlled at ~5±2 and ~15±3 °C, and the tests involved bacterial inoculums acquired from well water during March 2014 and August 2015, for the winter and summer tests, respectively. The results indicated that the sand columns clogged ~10 times faster in the summer test due to a 10-fold larger bacterial growth rate. The maximum concentrations of total extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) in the winter test were approximately twice those in the summer test, primarily caused by a ~200 μg/g sand increase of both loosely bound EPS (LB-EPS) and tightly bound EPS (TB-EPS). In the first half of the experimental period, the accumulation of bacteria cells and EPS production induced rapid bioclogging in both the winter and summer tests. Afterward, increasing bacterial growth dominated the bioclogging in the summer test, while the accumulation of LB-EPS led to further bioclogging in the winter test. The biological analysis determined that the dominant bacteria in experiments for both seasons were different and the bacterial community diversity was ~50% higher in the winter test than that for summer. The seasonal inoculums could lead to differences in the bacterial community structure and diversity, while recharge water temperature was considered to be a major factor influencing the bacterial growth rate and metabolism behavior during the seasonal bioclogging process.     

Spatial-Correlation Based Persistent Scatterer Interferometric Study for Ground Deformation

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), nowadays, is a precise technique for monitoring and detecting ground deformation at a millimetric level over large areas using multi-temporal SAR images. Persistent Scatterer Interferometric SAR (PSInSAR), an advanced version of InSAR, is an effective tool for measuring ground deformation using temporally stable reference points or persistent scatterers. We have applied both PSInSAR and Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) methods, based on the spatial correlation of interferometric phase, to estimate the ground deformation and time-series analysis. In this study, we select Las Vegas, Nevada, USA as our test area to detect the ground deformation along satellite line-of-sight (LOS) during November 1992–September 2000 using 44 C-band SAR images of the European Remote Sensing (ERS-1 and ERS-2) satellites. We observe the ground displacement rate of Las Vegas is in the range of ?19 to 8 mm/year in the same period. We also cross-compare PSInSAR and SBAS using mean LOS velocity and time-series. The comparison shows a correlation coefficient of 0.9467 in the case of mean LOS velocity. Along this study, we validate the ground deformation results from the satellite with the ground water depth of Las Vegas using time-series analysis, and the InSAR measurements show similar patterns with ground water data.     

斜交型不稳定谱点分布侧半圆定理及其增长率上界的估计

本对斜交型扰动不稳定谱点的分布做了理论分析，得到了该谱点分布的半圆定理一该谱点分布在复一面上以原点为圆心以R0为半径的上半平面上，同时还对该不稳定增长率的上界作了估计。发现水平永度越小，模式顶越高则该估计值越大；垂直风切变的增大和纬度的增高对该增长率的增大有正贡献；当层结稳定度减小时，最大增长率随相对最大增长率得增大而减小。     

Long-Term Changes in the Extreme Significant Wave Heights on the Western North Pacific: Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Activity and ENSO

Seasonal extreme wave statistics were reproduced by using the 25-km-grid global wave model of WAVEWATCH-III. The results showed that the simulated wave dataset for the present climate (1979-2009) was similar to Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wave data. Statistics such as the root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin were 0.5 m and 0.69 over the analysis domain. The largest trends and standard deviation were around the southern coast of Japan and western edge of the WNP. Linear regression analysis was employed to identify the relationship between the leading principal components (PCs) of significant wave heights (SWHs) in the peak season of July to September and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The results indicated that the inter-annual variability of SWH can be associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the peak season. The CC between the first PC of the SWH and anomalies in the Nino 3.4 SST index was also significant at a 99% confidence level. Significant variations in the SWH are affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by increased SST anomalies. The genesis and development of simulated TCs can be important to the variation in SWHs for the WNP in the peak season. Therefore, we can project the variability of SWHs through TC activity based on changes in SST conditions for the equatorial Pacific in the future.     

Method for Identifying Micro-seismic <Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis>-Arrival by Time-frequency Analysis Using Intrinsic Time-Scale Decomposition

A method to identify the P-arrival of microseismic signals is proposed in this work, based on the algorithm of intrinsic timescale decomposition (ITD). Using the results of ITD decomposition of observed data, information of instantaneous amplitude and frequency can be determined. The improved ratio function of short-time average over long-time average and the information of instantaneous frequency are applied to the time-frequency-energy denoised signal for picking the P-arrival of the microseismic signal. We compared the proposed method with the wavelet transform method based on the denoised signal resulting from the best basis wavelet packet transform and the single-scale reconstruction of the wavelet transform. The comparison results showed that the new method is more effective and reliable for identifying P-arrivals of microseismic signals.     

Soil acidity adaptive control problem

Problem of soil acidity regularization is modeled as stochastic adaptive control problem with a linear difference equation of the dynamics of a field pH level. Stochastic component in the equation represents an individual time variability of soil acidity of an elementary section. We use Bayesian approach to determine a posteriori probability density function of the unknown parameters of the stochastic transition process. The Kullback–Leibler information divergence is used as a measure of difference between true distribution and its estimation. Algorithm for the construction of an adaptive stabilizing control in such a linear control system is proposed in the paper. Numerical realization of the algorithm is represented for a problem of a field soil acidity control.