Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest

Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in central-eastern Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO₂ (1975–1985), 2 × CO₂ (2040–2049) and 3 × CO₂ (2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by vegetation and fire management.     

Chemical evolution and petrogenetic implications of loparite in the layered,agpaitic Lovozero complex,Kola Peninsula,Russia

Summary Lovozero, the largest of the world’s layered peralkaline intrusions, includes gigantic deposits of Nb + REE-loparite ore. Loparite, (Na,Ce,Ca)₂(Ti,Nb)₂O₆, became a cumulus phase after crystallisation of about 35% of the ‘Differentiated Complex’, and its compositional evolution has been investigated through a 2.35 km section of the intrusion. The composition of the cumulus loparite changes systematically upwards through the intrusion with an increase in Na, Sr, Nb and Th and decrease in REE and Ti. This main trend of loparite evolution records differentiation of the peralkaline magma through crystallisation of 1600 m of the intrusion. The formation of the loparite ores was the result of several factors including the chemical evolution of the highly alkaline magma and mechanical accumulation of loparite at the base of a convecting unit. At later stages of evolution, when concentrations of alkalis and volatiles reached very high levels, loparite reacted with the residual melt to form a variety of minerals including barytolamprophyllite, lomonosovite, steenstrupine-(Ce), vuonnemite, nordite, nenadkevichite, REE, Sr-rich apatite, vitusite-(Ce), mosandrite, monazite-(Ce), cerite and Ba, Si-rich belovite. The absence of loparite ore in the “Eudialyte complex” is likely to be a result of the wide crystallisation field of lamprophyllite, which here became a cumulus phase. Received November 6, 2000; revised version accepted January 18, 2001     

‘Telling a different tale’: literary, historical and meteorological readings of a Norfolk heatwave

Articulated initially by physical scientists, the idea of anthropogenic global climate change has been subject to increasingly diverse examinations in recent years. The idea has been appropriated by economists, worked with by engineers and, more recently, scrutinised by social scientists and humanities scholars. Underlying these examinations are different, yet rarely exposed, presumptions about what kind of ??thing?? climate is: a physical abstraction, a statistical construct, an imaginative idea. If the ontological status of climate is rarely made explicit it becomes difficult to know whether the different epistemologies used to reveal climates ?? and their changing properties ?? are appropriate. This study offers one way in which the different worlds inhabited by the idea of climate may be revealed. It does so by examining a heatwave: a powerful meteorological phenomenon one would think and one which scientific accounts of climate change tell us will become more frequent in the future. The heatwave in question occurred in July 1900 in the county of Norfolk, England. This heatwave inhabits three very different worlds: the imaginative world of L P Hartley in his novel The Go Between; the historical world of late Victorian Norfolk; and the digital world of the climate sciences. The traces of the heatwave left in these different worlds are varied and access to them is uneven. Constructing an adequate interpretation of this singular climatic event and its meaning is challenging. The study suggests that grasping the idea of climate may be harder than we think. Climates may be ineffable. Yet the approach to the study of climate illustrated here opens up new ways of thinking about the meaning and significance of climate change.     

Estimating australian forest fire danger under conditions of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations

The most appropriate indices with which to quantify Australian bushfire danger are the McArthur fire danger meters. These meters use meteorological information to produce a fire danger index that is directly related to the chance of a fire starting - and to the severity of a fire once it has started. The Mark 5 forest-fire danger meter uses air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, plus a drought factor that is calculated using daily rainfall and temperature information.Three years of daily data generated from the CSIRO four-level general circulation model, and thirty years of daily data generated from the CSIRO nine-level model were used to estimate the daily McArthur forest fire danger index for simulations corresponding to present conditions, and to those corresponding to doubled atmospheric CO₂. The performance of these models with respect to fire danger was tested by comparing the fire danger index for Sale (in the Eastern part of Victoria, South-eastern Australia) calculated from analysis of daily climatological data with the modelled annual cumulative forest fire danger index for the grid point that was representative of Sale. Data from both models for all Australian grid points were also examined. Both models predict an increase in fire danger over much of Australia for their doubled CO₂ scenarios.The results from the models confirm that annually averaged daily relative humidity is the single most important variable in the estimation of forest fire danger on an annual basis, yet the models tend to produce relative humidities that are slightly too low so that the fire danger is overestimated. A simple one-box model of evaporation indicates that the value of relative humidity to be expected under an altered climatic regime depends on the modelled relation between actual and potential evaporation, the present values of relative humidity and evaporation rate, as well as on the expected changes in wind speed.     

雪宝顶区块流域钙华形成的生物作用研究

钙华不仅具有重要的景观旅游价值,而且对确定区内碳酸盐沉积特征、环境演化规律及同期环境生物的作用与贡献有重要的研究意义。本文在对比国内外典型钙华特征的基础上,以黄龙和九寨沟为例,对雪宝顶区块流域内钙华的沉积特征、环境化学与生物作用进行阐述,指出了雪宝顶区块流域冷水型钙华的形成与演化是化学沉积-溶解作用、生物沉积与溶蚀作用等共同作用的结果,并受非生物、生物因素影响。在雪宝顶冷水型钙华的形成过程中,微生物协同参与了钙华的沉积与溶蚀过程,通过自身新陈代谢促活动促使使钙离子结晶,并诱导晶型变化;其他生物体如植物、藻类等或以间接的方式促进或加快了钙华形成,或为钙华生长提供模板和体量。     

The spectacular fossils of the ‘water margin’: the Cambrian biota of Chengjiang,Yunnan, China

Shi Nai'an's fourteenth century Chinese epic ‘Water Margin’ tells of the release of 36 heavenly spirits and 72 baleful stars from their captivity beneath a tablet of stone at Mount Longhu in Jiangxi Province. They are reincarnated as the 108 heroes of the Liangshan marsh in Shandong Province, who rise against an unjust world. The virtuous exploits of the ‘108’ were brought to life through the cathode‐ray screens of 1970s television sets, as the TV series The Water Margin introduced heroes like Lin Chong battling his evil nemesis Gao Qiu. Far to the west of Jiangxi Province and several hundred years after the Water Margin during the summer of 1984, a young scientist from Nanjing was working amongst the hills and lakes of southern Yunnan Province. He too overturned a stone slab, releasing from their half‐billion year captivity a cornucopia of new Chinese legends. His name was Xianguang Hou and he had made one of the most momentous fossil discoveries in history, uncovering the exceptionally preserved marine fossils of the Chengjiang biota from the ancient water margin of Cambrian seas.     

Understory and small trees contribute importantly to stemflow of a lower montane cloud forest

Stemflow (Sf) measurements in tropical rain and montane forests dominated by large trees rarely include the understory and small trees. In this study, contributions of lower (1‐ to 2‐m height) and upper (>2‐m height and <5‐cm diameter at breast height [DBH]) woody understory, small trees (5 < DBH < 10 cm), and canopy trees (>10‐cm DBH) to Sf per unit ground area (Sf_a) of a Mexican lower montane cloud forest were quantified for 32 days with rainfall (P) during the 2014 wet season. Rainfall, stemflow yield (Sf_y), vegetation height, density, and basal area were measured. Subsequently, stemflow funneling ratios (SFRs) were calculated, and three common methods to scale up Sf_y from individual trees to the stand level (tree‐Sf_y correlation, P‐Sf_y correlation, and mean‐Sf_y extrapolation) were used to calculate Sf_a. Understory woody plants, small trees, and upper canopy trees represented 96%, 2%, and 2%, respectively, of the total density. Upper canopy trees had the lowest SFRs (1.6 ± 0.5 Standard Error (SE) on average), although the lower understory had the highest (36.1 ± 6.4). Small trees and upper understory presented similar SFRs (22.9 ± 5.4 and 20.2 ± 3.9, respectively). Different Sf scaling methods generally yielded similar results. Overall Sf_a during the study period was 22.7 mm (4.5% of rainfall), to which the understory contributed 70.1% (15.9 mm), small trees 10.6% (2.4 mm), and upper canopy trees 19.3% (4.4 mm). Our results strongly suggest that for humid tropical forests with dense understory of woody plants and small trees, Sf of these groups should be measured to avoid an underestimation of overall Sf at the stand level.     

Groundwater recharge in an arid grassland as indicated by soil chloride profile and multiple tracers

Previous studies have shown that shallow groundwater in arid regions is often not in equilibrium with near‐surface boundary conditions due to human activities and climate change. This is especially the case where the unsaturated zone is thick and recharge rate is limited. Under this nonequilibrium condition, the unsaturated zone solute profile plays an important role in estimating recent diffuse recharge in arid environments. This paper combines evaluation of the thick unsaturated zone with the saturated zone to investigate the groundwater recharge of a grassland in the arid western Ordos Basin, NW China, using the soil chloride profiles and multiple tracers (²H, ¹⁸O, ¹³C, ¹⁴C, and water chemistry) of groundwater. Whereas conventional water balance and Darcy flux measurements usually involve large errors in recharge estimations for arid areas, chloride mass balance has been widely and generally successfully used. The results show that the present diffuse recharge beneath the grassland is 0.11–0.32 mm/year, based on the chloride mass balance of seven soil profiles. The chloride accumulation age is approximately 2,500 years at a depth of 13 m in the unsaturated zone. The average Cl content in soil moisture in the upper 13 m of the unsaturated zone ranges from 2,842 to 7,856 mg/L, whereas the shallow groundwater Cl content ranges from 95 to 351 mg/L. The corrected ¹⁴C age of shallow groundwater ranges from 4,327 to 29,708 years. Stable isotopes show that the shallow groundwater is unrelated to modern precipitation. The shallow groundwater was recharged during the cold and wet phases of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene humid phase based on palaeoclimate, and consequently, the groundwater resources are nonrenewable. Due to the limited recharge rate and thick unsaturated zone, the present shallow groundwater has not been in hydraulic equilibrium with near‐surface boundary conditions in the past 2,500 years.