Risk analysis of possible impacts of climate change on South Australian wheat production

This study presents a model-based risk assessment of wheat production under projected climate change by 2080 in eight locations of South Australia. The vulnerability of wheat production under future climate change was quantitatively evaluated via a risk analysis in which the identification of critical yield thresholds applies. Research results show that risk (conditional probability of not exceeding the critical yield thresholds) increased more or less across all locations under the most likely climate change. Wheat production in drier areas such as Minnipa, Orroroo and Wanbi will not be economically viable under the most likely climate change. Intensive studies on adaptation are now required.     

Thermochronology and exhumation rates of granitic intrusions at Mesa Central,Mexico

ABSTRACT

The Mesa Central of Mexico (MC) is an elevated plateau located 2000 m above sea level in central Mexico, where intrusions outcrop that register the history of exhumation-erosion occurring during the Late Cretaceous-Paleogene. The tectonic history of the region records formation of the Late Cretaceous-Paleogene ‘Mexican orogen’; this was followed by extension of the entire region and several plutons were then exhumed. The age and magnitude of the crustal uplift and erosion occurring during exhumation has not been addressed to date. Therefore, this study reports the crystallization and cooling ages of two plutons, the Tesorera Granodiorite and the Comanja Granite, and estimates their emplacement depths. Based on these data, the exhumation age of the Tesorera Granodiorite is estimated to be between ~73 Ma and ~63 Ma at an exhumation rate of ~528 m/m. y. and that of the Comanja Granite is 52 Ma and 48 Ma at an exhumation rate of ~2500 m/m. y. Exhumation-erosion event of the Tesorera Granodiorite was located on the trace of the San Luis-Tepehuanes Fault System and that of the Comanja Granite on the a trace of the El Bajío Fault System. Furthermore, the high exhumation rate in the Comanja Granite suggests that gravitational collapse played an important role during exhumation.     

Mass segregation in young stellar clusters

We investigate the evolutionary effect of dynamical mass segregation in young stellar clusters. Dynamical mass segregation acts on a time-scale of order the relaxation time of a cluster. Although some degree of mass segregation occurs earlier, the position of massive stars in rich young clusters generally reflects the cluster's initial conditions. In particular, the positions of the massive stars in the Trapezium cluster in Orion cannot be due to dynamical mass segregation, but indicate that they formed in, or near, the centre of the cluster. Implications of this for cluster formation and for the formation of high-mass stars are discussed.     

A ROSAT survey of Wolf–Rayet galaxies — II. The extended sample

We present results from an ongoing X-ray survey of Wolf–Rayet (WR) galaxies, a class of objects believed to be very young starbursts. This paper extends the first X-ray survey of WR galaxies by Stevens &38; Strickland by studying WR galaxies identified subsequent to the original WR galaxy catalogue of Conti.   Out of a sample of 40 new WR galaxies a total of 10 have been observed with the ROSAT PSPC, and of these seven have been detected (NGC 1365, NGC 1569, I Zw 18, NGC 3353, NGC 4449, NGC 5408 and a marginal detection of NGC 2366). Of these, all are dwarf starbursts except for NGC 1365, which is a barred spiral galaxy possibly with an active nucleus. We also report on observations of the related emission-line galaxy IRAS 0833+6517.   The X-ray properties of these galaxies are broadly in line with those found for the original sample; they are X-ray overluminous compared with their blue luminosity and have thermal spectra with typically kT  ∼ 0.4 − 1.0 keV. There are some oddities: NGC 5408 is very overluminous in X-rays, even compared with other WR galaxies; I Zw 18 has a harder X-ray spectrum; NGC 1365, although thought to contain an active nucleus, has X-ray properties that are broadly similar to other WR galaxies, and we suggest that the X-ray emission from NGC 1365 is due to starburst activity.   A good correlation between X-ray and blue luminosity is found for the WR galaxy sample as a whole. However, when just dwarf galaxies are considered there is little evidence of correlation. We discuss the implications of these results on our understanding of the X-ray emission from WR galaxies and suggest that the best explanation for the X-ray activity is starburst activity from a young starburst region.     

Maquiladora Myths: Locational and Structural Change in Mexico's Export Manufacturing Industry

Trends in location, labor force, and procurement practices in maquiladoras are examined using recent data sources. A growing proportion of maquiladoras are selecting interior locations, south of the borderlands. Once dominated by young women, the labor force is rapidly approaching gender parity. While far below prevailing rates in the United States, maquiladora wages are comparable with equivalent manufacturing sectors in Mexico. Majority ownership of maquiladoras is split almost evenly between Mexico and the U.S., however, maquiladoras have failed to develop domestic sources of materials and parts and remain dependent on imported material inputs. As the North American Free Trade Agreement is phased in, the regulatory environment of maquiladoras will change but their role as low cost assembly specialists will persist.     

Using the TCEV distribution function with systematic and non-systematic data in a regional flood frequency analysis

Due to the social and economic implications, flood frequency analysis must be done with the highest precision. For this reason, the most suitable statistical model must be selected, and the maximum amount of information must be used. Floods in Mediterranean rivers can be produced by two different mechanisms, which forces the use of a non-traditional distribution like the TCEV. The information can be increased by using additional non-systematic data, or with a regional analysis, or both. Through the statistical gain concept, it has been shown that in most cases the use of additional non-systematic information can decrease the quantile estimation error in about 50%. In a regional analysis, the␣benefit of additional information in one station, is propagated to the rest of␣the␣stations with only a small decrease with respect to the at-site equivalent analysis.     

The breakdown of potassium feldspar at high water pressures

The equilibrium position of the reaction between sanidine and water to form “sanidine hydrate” has been determined by reversal experiments on well characterised synthetic starting materials in a piston cylinder apparatus. The reaction was found to lie between four reversed brackets of 2.35 and 2.50 GPa at 450 °C, 2.40 and 2.59 GPa at 550 °C, 2.67 and 2.74 GPa at 650 °C, and 2.70 and 2.72 GPa at 680 °C. Infrared spectroscopy showed that the dominant water species in sanidine hydrate was structural H₂O. The minimum quantity of this structural H₂O, measured by thermogravimetric analysis, varied between 4.42 and 5.85 wt% over the pressure range of 2.7 to 3.2 GPa and the temperature range of 450 to 680 °C. Systematic variation in water content with pressure and temperature was not clearly established. The maximum value was below 6.07 wt%, the equivalent of 1 molecule of H₂O per formula unit. The water could be removed entirely by heating at atmospheric pressure to produce a metastable, anhydrous, hexagonal KAlSi₃O₈ phase (“hexasanidine”) implying that the structural H₂O content of sanidine hydrate can vary. The unit cell parameters for sanidine hydrate, measured by powder X-ray diffraction, were a = 0.53366 (±0.00022) nm and c = 0.77141 (±0.00052) nm, and those for hexasanidine were a = 0.52893 (±0.00016) nm and c = 0.78185 (±0.00036) nm. The behaviour and properties of sanidine hydrate appear to be analogous to those of the hydrate phase cymrite in the equivalent barium system. The occurrence of sanidine hydrate in the Earth would be limited to high pressure but very low temperature conditions and hence it could be a potential reservoir for water in cold subduction zones. However, sanidine hydrate would probably be constrained to granitic rock compositions at these pressures and temperatures. Received: 6 May 1997 / Accepted: 2 October 1997     

Sea level,climate change and coastal evolution in Morar,northwest Scotland

Analyses of geomorphologically contrasting sites in Morar, NW Scotland, describe the forcing mechanisms of coastal change. Isolation basins (i.e. basins behind rock sills and now isolated from the sea following isostatic uplift) accumulated continuous marine and freshwater sediments from c.12 to 2 ka BP. Raised dune, marsh and wetland sites register breaching, migration and stability of dunes from c. 9 to 2 ka BP. High-resolution methods designed to address issues of macroscale and microscale sea-level changes and patterns of storminess include 1-mm sampling for pollen, dinocyst and diatom analyses, infra-red photography, X-ray photography and thin-section analysis. The data enhance the record of relative sea-level change for the area. Major phases of landward migration of the coast occurred during the period of low sea-level rise in the mid-Holocene as the rate of rise decreased from c. 3 to < 1 mm/year. Relative sea-level change controls the broad pattern of coastal evolution at each site; local site-specific factors contribute to short-term process change. There is no record of extreme events such as tsunami. Within a system of dynamic metastable equilibrium, the Holocene records show that site-specific factors determine the exact timing of system breakdown, e.g. dune breaching, superimposed on regional sea-level rise. The global average sea-level rise of 3 to 6 mm/yr by AD 2050 predicted by IPCC would only partly be offset in the Morar area by isostatic uplift of about 1 mm/yr. A change from relative sea-level fall to sea-level rise, in areas where the regional rate of uplift no longer offsets global processes, is a critical factor in the management of coastal resources.