Turning climate change information into economic and health impacts

The PRUDENCE project has generated a set of spatially and temporally high-resolution climate data, which provides new opportunities for assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on economic and human systems in Europe. In this context, we initiated the development of new approaches for linking climate change information and economic studies. We have considered a number of case studies that illustrate how linkages can be established between geographically detailed climate data and economic information. The case studies included wheat production in agriculture, where regional climate data has been linked to farm enterprise data in an integrated model of physical conditions, production inputs and outputs, and farm management practices. Similarly, temperature data were used to assess consequences of extreme heat and excess mortality in urban areas. We give an introduction of an analytical approach for assessing economic impacts of climate change and discuss how economic concepts and valuation paradigms can be applied to climate change impact evaluation. A number of methodological difficulties encountered in economic assessments of climate change impacts are described and a number of issues related to social and private aspects of costs are highlighted. It is argued that, in particular, detailed climate information matters in relation to understanding how private agents react to observed climate data.     

Coupled thermal, hydraulic and geochemical evolution of pyritic tailings in unsaturated column experiments

The evolution of pore-water and the composition of solid phases in the vadose zone of pyritic tailings was studied by means of unsaturated column experiments. Several columns of water-saturated mine tailings were dried during 125 days under controlled laboratory conditions. The columns were dismantled at four successive drying stages and the evolution of pore-water, mineralogy, water content and temperature was characterized.Sulfide and aluminosilicate minerals present in the waste dissolved, releasing sulfate and other solutes (mainly Fe, Zn, Cu, Al, Mg and Ca) to the pore-water. Evaporation caused a crust of efflorescent, water-soluble sulfates to develop over the complete top surface of the columns and into the pores of the underlying waste material. This crust, which has also been identified in the field, changed the hydraulic properties of the tailings and produced a decrease in the evaporation rate of the columns. Moreover, these water-soluble precipitates (mainly rozenite, szomolnokite, halotrichite, hexahydrite, mirabilite and gypsum) acted as temporary sinks for Cd, Pb, Co and Ni, which could be released to the surface run-off or the groundwaters during rainfall events under field conditions.Pore-water evolution was determined not only by geochemical processes (dissolution of sulfides and aluminosilicates, precipitation of secondary phases) but also by thermal and hydraulic processes. Progressive dilution was observed in the lower part of the columns. Dilution was caused by the thermally driven vapor flux from the top of the column to its colder bottom and subsequent condensation therein. This process, which may also occur in tailings under sub-arid climate, played a key role on the evolution of pore-water with increasing drying.     

Flat rare earth element patterns as an indicator of cumulate processes in the Lesser Qinling carbonatites, China

The Lesser Qinling carbonatite dykes are mainly composed of calcites. They are characterized by unusually high heavy rare earth element concentrations (HREE; e.g. Yb > 30 ppm) and flat to weakly light rare earth element (LREE) enriched chondrite-normalized patterns (La/Yb_n = 1.0–5.5), which is in marked contrast with all other published carbonatite data. The trace element contents of calcite crystals were measured in situ by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS). Some crystals show reduced LREE from core to rim, whereas their HREE compositions are relatively constant. The total REE contents and chondrite-normalized REE patterns from the cores of carbonate crystals are similar to those of the whole rock. The carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions of calcites fall within the range of primary, mantle-derived carbonatites. The initial Sr isotopic compositions (0.70480–0.70557) of calcites are consistent with an EM1 source or mixing between HIMU and EM1 mantle sources. However these sources cannot produce carbonatite parental magmas with a flat or slightly LREE enrichment pattern by low degrees of partial melting. Analyses of carbonates from other carbonatites show that carbonates have nearly flat REE pattern if they crystallize from a LREE enriched carbonatite melt. This implies that when carbonates crystallize from a carbonatite melt the calcite/melt partition coefficients (D) for HREE are much greater than the D for the LREE. The nearly flat REE patterns of the Lesser Qinling carbonatites can be explained if they are carbonate cumulates that contain little trapped carbonatite melt. Strong enrichment of HREE in the carbonatites may require their derivation by small degrees of melting from a garnet-poor source.     

Elevated marine deposits in Bermuda record a late Quaternary megatsunami

Deposits of coral-bearing, marine shell conglomerate exposed at elevations higher than 20 m above present-day mean sea level (MSL) in Bermuda and the Bahamas have previously been interpreted as relict intertidal deposits formed during marine isotope stage (MIS) 11, ca. 360–420 ka before present. On the strength of this evidence, a sea level highstand more than 20 m higher than present-day MSL was inferred for the MIS 11 interglacial, despite a lack of clear supporting evidence in the oxygen-isotope records of deep-sea sediment cores. We have critically re-examined the elevated marine deposits in Bermuda, and find their geological setting, sedimentary relations, and microfaunal assemblages to be inconsistent with intertidal deposition over an extended period. Rather, these deposits, which comprise a poorly sorted mixture of reef, lagoon and shoreline sediments, appear to have been carried tens of meters inside karst caves, presumably by large waves, at some time earlier than ca. 310–360 ka before present (MIS 9–11). We hypothesize that these deposits are the result of a large tsunami during the mid-Pleistocene, in which Bermuda was impacted by a wave set that carried sediments from the surrounding reef platform and nearshore waters over the eolianite atoll. Likely causes for such a megatsunami are the flank collapse of an Atlantic island volcano, such as the roughly synchronous Julan or Orotava submarine landslides in the Canary Islands, or a giant submarine landslide on the Atlantic continental margin.     

The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Pc3 Geomagnetic Activity over Canada in 2000, as a Guide to Planning the Times of Aeromagnetic Surveys

Geomagnetic activity affects aeromagnetic surveys. Geomagnetic variations are quite complex and can be quantified in different ways. A measure of geomagnetic activity that is useful for planning aeromagnetic surveys is the Pc3 pulsation index developed by the Australian Space Weather Agency. Purposeful to developing guidelines for planning aeromagnetic surveys in Canada, we study the variations in Pc3 index amplitude over Canada in 2000. This study shows distinct patterns associated with the sub-auroral zone, the auroral zone, and the polar cap. Average Pc3 index activity is higher during the months of February, July, September, and November in the auroral and sub-auroral zones. The station in the polar cap exhibits maximum activity near midday during the summer months. Detailed analysis of a magnetic storm shows that Pc3 index amplitude during the beginning of the solar storm is least important at the polar cap. The mean Pc3 index also relates to solar wind parameters such as the solar wind velocity and the vertical polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field. Analysis of the morning maximum of the Pc3 index observed in the auroral zone can be used to develop guidelines for planning aeromagnetic surveys in Canada and other areas of the world affected by auroral zones.     

Importance of advective zone in longitudinal mixing experiments

One-dimensional Fickian dispersion models such as the advection diffusion equation (ADE) are commonly used to analyse and predict concentration distributions downstream of contamination events in watercourses. Such models are only valid once the tracer had entered the equilibrium zone. This paper compares previous theoretical, experimental and numerical estimates of the distance to reach the equilibrium zone with new experimental values, obtained by examining the change of skewness in a tracer profile, downstream of a cross-sectionally well mixed source. Closer agreement was found with Fischers’ theoretical estimate than prior experimental and numerical studies.     

The Alleret maar (Massif Central, France): A new lacustrine sequence of the early Middle Pleistocene in western Europe

The Alleret maar (Massif Central, France) provides a long lacustrine sequence (40.6 m) attributed to the early Middle Pleistocene. Sediment, pollen and diatoms analysis of its upper part (AL2 core, 14.6 m) indicates two temperate phases marked by high lake levels, forest development and vegetation expansion. They are separated by a cold period during which lake level drops, coarse sediment input increases and steppic and xerophilous plants develop. Pollen data suggests that this sequence belongs to the upper part of the Cromerian complex. These results are in agreement with the 557 ± 3 ka (±12 ka, including all errors) ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age obtained from an interbedded tephra layer emitted by the Mont-Dore/Sancy strato-volcano and establish that this sequence probably covers the MIS 15 substages.     

Crustal attenuation in the Southern Andean retroarc (38°–39°30′ S) determined from tectonic and gravimetric studies: The Lonco-Luán asthenospheric anomaly

The western retroarc of the Southern Andes between 38° and 40° S is formed by a NNW-elongated ridge not associated with stacked thrust sheets. On the contrary, during the last 4–3 Ma this ridge was affected by extensional deformation, regional uplift and related folding on a very broad scale. Receiver function analysis shows that the drainage divide area and adjacent retroarc lie over an attenuated crust. Expected crustal thickness at these latitudes is around 38 km, whereas in this part of the retroarc the thickness is less than 32 km. The causes for such attenuation have been linked to a moderate steepening of the subducted Nazca plate beneath the South American plate, which is suggested by a westward shift and narrowing of the magmatic arc during the last 4 to 5 Ma. Gravimetric studies show that the upper plate did not react homogeneously to slab steepening, but ancient sutures and lithospheric discontinuities deeply buried under Mesozoic to Cenozoic sequences in the retroarc were locally reactivated. These processes resulted in an asthenospheric anomaly that correlates at the surface with the area of Pliocene to Quaternary doming, widespread extension and three radial troughs. Two of the troughs have accommodated substantial amounts of extension, but the third was probably aborted at an early stage. Moreover, the presence of an anomalous concentration of calderas and large volcanic centers over the proposed asthenospheric anomaly, and their age distribution, may indicate minor migration of the asthenospheric anomaly between 4 and 2 Ma through the western South American plate.     

Irrigated area determination: a case study in the Province of San Juan,Argentina

Much of the central-western region of Argentina, where San Juan Province is located, experiences arid to semi-arid climatic conditions with low average annual rainfall accompanied by substantial evapotranspiration. Consequently, a viable crop industry depends to a large extent upon irrigation from major river systems. Increasing demand for water in the lower basin of the San Juan River is emphasizing the need for more accurate estimates of water used for irrigation. Since the water demand for a particular crop is very closely related to crop area, monitoring the area of crop under irrigation is considered a proxy for the amount of water used. Landsat 5 imagery for the growing season, field data and aerial photographs were used to evaluate crop area.     

Vulnerability assessment in a volcanic risk evaluation in Central Mexico through a multi-criteria-GIS approach

The Valley of Toluca is a major industrial and agricultural area in Central Mexico, especially the City of Toluca, the capital of The State of Mexico. The Nevado de Toluca volcano is located to the southwest of The Toluca Basin. Results obtained from the vulnerability assessment phase of the study area (5,040 km² and 42 municipalities) are presented here as a part of a comprehensive volcanic risk assessment of The Toluca Basin. Information has been gathered and processed at a municipal level including thematic maps at 1:250,000 scale. A database has been built, classified and analyzed within a GIS environment; additionally, a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) approach was applied as an aid for the decision-making process. Cartographic results were five vulnerability maps: (1) Total Population, (2) Land Use/Cover, (3) Infrastructure, (4) Economic Units and (5) Total Vulnerability. Our main results suggest that the Toluca and Tianguistenco urban and industrial areas, to the north and northeast of The Valley of Toluca, are the most vulnerable areas, for their high concentration of population, infrastructure, economic activity, and exposure to volcanic events.