Climatic regimes and the recruitment rate of anchoveta, Engraulis ringens, off Peru

The recruitment rate of Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens, was studied to test the hypothesis that long-term environmental variation (regime shifts) had a significant impact on density-dependent processes governing the anchovy recruitment during the period 1963–2004. On the basis of previous defined regimes and turning points for the Humboldt Current System, we identified two groups of years for increased recruitment of anchoveta (1963–1971 and 1986–2004), and one unfavorable period (1972–1985). A common intercept and significantly different slopes were found when the recruitment rate was plotted as a function of the spawning stock biomass during those groups of years, suggesting that density-dependent effects on recruitment were affected during different climate regimes. The favorable (unfavorable) regime was characterized by higher (lower) zooplankton volumes, and with a higher frequency of colder (warmer) waters. Dome-shaped relationships between recruitment rate, spawning stock biomass and SST, were detected with a Generalized Additive Model for the favorable regime. Thus, recruitment could be explained by non-linear effects of environmental variables. Ultimately, climatic regimes are affecting the density-dependent effects on recruitment of anchoveta and the mechanisms involved may be associated with changes in the carrying capacity of the spawning habitat of anchoveta off Peru, which in turn are related with the effects of cold and warm regimes.     

Seasonal use of coastal resources by otters: Comparing sandy and rocky stretches

Seasonal patterns of use of coastal resources by otters have been studied, simultaneously performing diet analyses and spraint counts (expressed as marking intensity, MI). In spite of the small size of the study area, two different sectors could be clearly identified, a sandy and a rocky one. The origin (freshwater or coastal) of most prey types could also be determined. Surveys were performed bimonthly and classified as autumn–winter (A–W) or spring–summer (S–S).In the sandy sector, eels, flatfish and grey mullets were more frequently consumed in A–W, while crayfish was more frequently consumed in S–S. None of the identified prey types in the rocky sectors showed different frequency of occurrence values between the two periods. In this sector otter fed mainly on coastal prey throughout the year, while in the sandy one there was a clear shift from coastal prey to freshwater ones in S–S. The decrease of coastal prey consumption in S–S in the sandy sector coincided with the lowest MI values, showing that in this period otters use coastal areas less intensely. Though shifts in otter diet and use of space in the sandy sector are probably influenced by the population dynamics of estuarine fish species and crayfish, the increased tourist disturbance during spring and summer in the sandy sector could be an important determinant of the observed patterns. Finally, the results show that MI can be used as a reliable measure of habitat use by otters, at least in small areas.     

On the self-consistency of evolutionary synthesis models

Evolutionary synthesis models have been used to study the physical properties of unresolved populations in a wide range of scenarios. Unfortunately, their self-consistency is difficult to test and there are some theoretical open questions without an answer: (1) The change of the homology relations assumed in the computation of isochrones due to the effect of stellar winds (or rotation) and the discontinuities in the stellar evolution are not considered. (2) There is no consensus about how the isochrones must be integrated. (3) The discreteness of the stellar populations (that produce an intrinsic statistical dispersion) usually are not taken into account, and model results are interpreted in a deterministic way instead of a statistical one. The objective of this contribution is to present some inconsistencies in the computation and some cautions in the application of the results of such codes. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modeling spatial landslide susceptibility in volcanic terrains through continuous neighborhood spatial analysis and multiple logistic regression in La Ciénega watershed,Nevado de Toluca,Mexico

Natural Hazards - Little study has been done on the effect of the pixel neighborhood information when modeling landslide susceptibility using multiple logistic regression (MLR). The present...     

On solution of the inverse problem for confined aquifer flow via maximum likelihood

Joint estimation of transmissivity (T) and storativity (S) in a confined aquifer is done via maximum likelihood (ML). The differential equation of groundwater flow is discretized by the finite-element method, leading to equation _t+x _t=u _t. Elements of matrices and , as well as estimated covariance matrix of noise termu _t, are functions of T and S. By minimizing the negative loglikelihood function corresponding to discretized groundwater flow equation with respect to T and S, ML estimators are obtained. The ML approach is found to yield accurate estimates of T and S (within 9 and 10% of their actual values, respectively) and showed quadratic convergence in Newton's search technique. Prediction of aquifer response, using ML estimators, results in estimated piezometric heads accurate to ±0.5 m from their actual, exact values. Statistical properties of ML estimators are derived and some basic results for statistical inference are given.     

A Method for Obtaining the Nuclear Component in Active Galaxies

We present a new method for the obtention of the nuclear component of active galatic nuclei, that relies on the convolution of a two-dimensional model of the host galaxy, based on seeing-free morphological parameters, with the seeing PSF. The procedure overcomes some limitations of the methods currently in use and does not assume that the nucleus is unresolved. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

EVA: GPS-based extended velocity and acceleration determination

In this work, a new GPS carrier phase-based velocity and acceleration determination method is presented that extends the effective range of previous techniques. The method is named ‘EVA’, and may find applications in fields such as airborne gravimetry when rough terrain or water bodies make difficult or impractical to set up nearby GPS reference receivers. The EVA method is similar to methods such as Kennedy (Precise acceleration determination from carrier phase measurements. In: Proceedings of the 15th international technical meeting of the satellite division of the Institute of Navigation. ION GPS 2002, Portland pp 962–972, 2002b) since it uses L1 carrier phase observables for velocity and acceleration determination. However, it introduces a wide network of stations and it is independent of precise clock information because it estimates satellite clock drifts and drift rates ‘on-the-fly’, requiring only orbit data of sufficient quality. Moreover, with EVA the solution rate is only limited by data rate, and not by the available precise satellite clocks data rate. The results obtained are more robust for long baselines than the results obtained with the reference Kennedy method. An advantage of being independent of precise clock information is that, beside IGS Final products, also the Rapid, Ultra-Rapid (observed) and Ultra-Rapid (predicted) products may be used. Moreover, the EVA technique may also use the undifferenced ionosphere-free carrier phase combination (LC), overcoming baseline limitations in cases where ionosphere gradients may be an issue and very low biases are required. During the development of this work, some problems were found in the velocity estimation process of the Kennedy method. The sources of the problems were identified, and an improved version of the Kennedy method was used for this research work. An experiment was performed using a light aircraft flying over the Pyrenees, showing that both EVA and the improved Kennedy methods are able to cope with the dynamics of mountainous flight. A RTK-derived solution was also generated, and when comparing the three methods to a known zero-velocity reference the results yielded similar performance. The EVA and the improved-Kennedy methods outperformed the RTK solutions, and the EVA method provided the best results in this experiment. Finally, both the improved version of the Kennedy method and the EVA method were applied to a network in equatorial South America with baselines of more than 1,770 km, and during local noon. Under this tough scenario, the EVA method showed a clear advantage for all components of velocity and acceleration, yielding better and more robust results.     

Influence of size on the constitutive equations of concrete or rock dowels

The numerical fracture analysis of non‐homogeneous rock or concrete dowels subjected to shear and compression is described in detail. The method of analysis allows the consideration of scale and rate effects due to material non‐homogeneity and fracture. The proposed approach is verified by comparing numerical predictions with experimental results reported in the literature for a series of small rock samples, since experimental evidence for large bodies is not yet available (2007). Results generated by Monte Carlo simulation using the so‐called discrete element method to model the dowels suggest that a simple three parameters law can be used to predict the relationship between tangential stress at the base and lateral distortion. It is observed that the larger the size of the cubes, the smaller both the peak tangential stress and the rupture distortion. Size effects are also evaluated in samples with vertical restraint. The influence of loading rate is likewise numerically assessed for two sample sizes. The effect is compatible with experimental evidence available for concrete using small samples. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.