Spectral density regression for bivariate extremes

We introduce a density regression model for the spectral density of a bivariate extreme value distribution, that allows us to assess how extremal dependence can change over a covariate. Inference is performed through a double kernel estimator, which can be seen as an extension of the Nadaraya–Watson estimator where the usual scalar responses are replaced by mean constrained densities on the unit interval. Numerical experiments with the methods illustrate their resilience in a variety of contexts of practical interest. An extreme temperature dataset is used to illustrate our methods.     

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems for semi-automatic discrimination between seismic events: a study in Tehran region

Thisarticle presents an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for classification of low magnitude seismic events reported in Iran by the network of Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO). ANFIS classifiers were used to detect seismic events using six inputs that defined the seismic events. Neuro-fuzzy coding was applied using the six extracted features as ANFIS inputs. Two types of events were defined: weak earthquakes and mining blasts. The data comprised 748 events (6289 signals) ranging from magnitude 1.1 to 4.6 recorded at 13 seismic stations between 2004 and 2009. We surveyed that there are almost 223 earthquakes with M ≤ 2.2 included in this database. Data sets from the south, east, and southeast of the city of Tehran were used to evaluate the best short period seismic discriminants, and features as inputs such as origin time of event, distance (source to station), latitude of epicenter, longitude of epicenter, magnitude, and spectral analysis (fc of the Pg wave) were used, increasing the rate of correct classification and decreasing the confusion rate between weak earthquakes and quarry blasts. The performance of the ANFIS model was evaluated for training and classification accuracy. The results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS model has good potential for determining seismic events.     

Shark interactions in pelagic longline fisheries

Substantial ecological, economic and social problems result from shark interactions in pelagic longline fisheries. Improved understanding of industry attitudes and practices towards shark interactions assists with managing these problems. Information on fisher knowledge and new strategies for shark avoidance may benefit sharks and fishers. A study of 12 pelagic longline fisheries from eight countries shows that incentives to avoid sharks vary along a continuum, based on whether sharks represent an economic disadvantage or advantage. Shark avoidance practices are limited, including avoiding certain areas, moving when shark interaction rates are high, using fish instead of squid for bait and deeper setting. Some conventionally employed fishing gear and methods used to target non-shark species contribute to shark avoidance. Shark repellents hold promise; more research and development is needed. Development of specifically designed equipment to discard sharks could improve shark post release survival prospects, reduce gear loss and improve crew safety. With expanding exploitation of sharks for fins and meat, improved data collection, monitoring and precautionary shark management measures are needed to ensure that shark fishing mortality levels are sustainable.     

Damages observed in locations of Oaxaca due to the Tehuantepec Mw8.2 earthquake,Mexico

On September 7, 2017, at 23:49 h (local time), a Mw8.2 intermediate-depth normal-fault earthquake occurred in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 133 km away from Pijijiapan, Chiapas, and about 700 km away from Mexico City. This event caused 95 fatalities and severe damage to different types of structures located close to the epicenter. The main objective of this work is to present observed damages caused in the state of Oaxaca by this earthquake, which were mainly concentrated in self-built houses and historical and ancient buildings. The locations visited by the reconnaissance team of the Institute of Engineering from UNAM in Oaxaca included Salina Cruz, Tehuantepec, Ixtaltepec, Juchitán, Huatulco and La Ventosa.

     

Mobilization analysis of the dolmen of Dombate (Northwest Spain)

This paper presents an analysis of the mobilization of the dolmen of Dombate, a megalithic monument situated in the Northwest of Spain. The study is founded on simple static principles, with the application of basic concepts of soil mechanics (soil reactions were computed by the reaction modulus method) and rock mechanics (a simple secant approach was adopted to model the contact between orthostats). In addition, a simplified geometric model for dolmens was adopted. On the basis of these concepts, a numerical solver able to provide quick estimations of the system's mobilization was developed. Using this tool, a number of sensitivity analyses were conducted to estimate the mobilization that could be caused by a conservation project currently under consideration. It was found that mobilization might be excessive, and therefore, a safer procedure is proposed. In short, this paper puts forth a new rational approach for archaeological practices which may help to estimate the possible consequences of excavations and rehabilitations on megalithic structures.     

Contribution of SHRIMP U–Pb zircon geochronology to unravelling the evolution of Brazilian Neoproterozoic fold belts

The South-American continent is constituted of three major geologic–geotectonic entities: the homonym platform (consolidated at the end of the Cambrian), the Andean chain (essentially Meso-Cenozoic) and the Patagonian terrains, affected by tectonism and magmatism through almost all of the Phanerozoic. The platform is constituted by a series of cratonic nuclei (pre-Tonian, fragments of the Rodinia fission) surrounded by a complex fabric of Neoproterozoic structural provinces.     

Importance of geochemical transformations in determining submarine groundwater discharge-derived trace metal and nutrient fluxes

Seasonal (Spring and Summer 2002) concentrations of dissolved (<0.22 μm) trace metals (Ag, Al, Co, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb), inorganic nutrients (NO₃, PO₄, Si), and DOC were determined in groundwater samples from 5 wells aligned along a 30 m shore-normal transect in West Neck Bay, Long Island, NY. Results show that significant, systematic changes in groundwater trace metal and nutrient composition occur along the flowpath from land to sea. While conservative mixing between West Neck Bay water and the groundwaters explains the behavior of Si and DOC, non-conservative inputs for Co and Ni were observed (concentration increases of 10- and 2-fold, respectively) and removal of PO₄ and NO₃ (decreases to about half) along the transport pathway. Groundwater-associated chemical fluxes from the aquifer to the embayment calculated for constituents not exhibiting conservative behavior can vary by orders of magnitude depending on sampling location and season (e.g. Co, 3.4 × 10²– 8.2 × 10³ μmol d⁻¹). Using measured values from different wells as being representative of the true groundwater endmember chemical composition also results in calculation of very different fluxes (e.g., Cu, 6.3 × 10³ μmol d⁻¹ (inland, freshwater well) vs. 2.1 × 10⁵ μmol d⁻¹(seaward well, S = 17 ppt)). This study suggests that seasonal variability and chemical changes occurring within the subterranean estuary must be taken into account when determining the groundwater flux of dissolved trace metals and nutrients to the coastal ocean.     

Surface dynamic deformation estimates from local seismicity: the Itoiz reservoir,Spain

We analyze the ground motion time histories due to the local seismicity near the Itoiz reservoir to estimate the near-source, surface 3D displacement gradients and dynamic deformations. The seismic data were obtained by a semipermanent broadband and accelerometric network located on surface and at underground sites. The dynamic deformation field was calculated by two different methodologies: first, by the seismo-geodetic method using the data from a three-station microarray located close to the dam, and second, by single station estimates of the displacement gradients. The dynamic deformations obtained from both methods were compared and analyzed in the context of the local free-field effects. The shallow 1D velocity structure was estimated from the seismic data by modeling the body wave travel times. Time histories obtained from both methods result quite similar in the time window of body wave arrivals. The strain misfits between methods vary from 1.4 to 35.0 % and rotational misfits vary from 2.5 to 36.0 %. Amplitudes of displacement gradients vary in the range of 10^?8 to 10^?7 strains. From these results, a new scaling analysis by numerical modeling is proposed in order to estimate the peak dynamic deformations for different magnitudes, up to the expected maximum M _w in the region (M5.5). Peak dynamic deformations due to local M _w5.5 earthquakes would reach amplitudes of 10^?5 strain and 10^?3 radians at the Itoiz dam. The single station method shows to be an adequate option for the analysis of local seismicity, where few three-component stations are available. The results obtained here could help to extend the applicability of these methodologies to other sites of engineering interest.     

Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis

We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions.