Analysis of current trends in climate parameters,river discharge and glaciers in the Aksu River basin (Central Asia)

Abstract

Climate variability and change play a crucial role in the vulnerable system of the Aksu River basin located in Kyrgyzstan and northwest China, providing precious water resources for the intense oasis agriculture of the Xinjiang Province (China). Ubiquitous warming and increase in precipitation (in the lower part of the basin) have been detected. Glaciers in the region are retreating. Seasonal trends in river discharge show an increase. A clear link could be demonstrated between daily temperature and lagged river discharge at two headwater stations in summer. However, the correlation breaks over short periods in the end of summer or beginning of autumn at the Xiehela station, when the high (over 95th percentile) flow peaks caused by the glacier lake outburst floods of the Merzbacher Lake occur. This feature is a challenge for the climate impact assessment in the region, as these regular outbursts have to be represented in the projections for the future as well.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Three-dimensional convection in spherical shells

Abstract

In this study, the equations of the three-dimensional convective motion of an infinite Prandtl number fluid are solved in spherical geometry, for Rayleigh numbers up to 15 times the critical number. An iterative method is used to find stationary solutions. The spherical parts of the operators are treated using a Galerkin collocation method while the radial and time dependences are expressed using finite difference methods. A systematic search for stationary solutions has led to eight different stream patterns for a low Rayleigh number (1.28 times the critical number). They can be classified as:

I) Axisymmetrical solutions, analogous to rolls in plane geometry.

II) Solutions which have several ascending plumes within a large area of ascending current, and also several descending plumes within an area of descending current. This type of flow is analogous to bimodal circulation in plane geometry.

III) Solutions characterized by isolated ascending (or descending) plumes separated from each other by a closed polyhedral network of descending (or ascending) currents. This type of circulation is called ‘polygonal’ in analogy with hexagonal circulation in plane geometry.

The behaviour of each of the eight solutions has been studied by increasing the Rayleigh number up to 15 times the critical number. A trend towards transitions from type (I) and type (II) solutions to type (III) solutions is observed. It is inferred that only the “polygonal” solutions are stable for a Rayleigh number greater than 15 times the critical number.     

Advances in search and rescue at sea

A topical collection on “Advances in Search and Rescue at Sea” has appeared in recent issues of Ocean Dynamics following the latest in a series of workshops on “Technologies for Search and Rescue and other Emergency Marine Operations” (2004, 2006, 2008, and 2011), hosted by IFREMER in Brest, France. Here, we give a brief overview of the history of search and rescue at sea before we summarize the main results of the papers that have appeared in the topical collection.     

Fluid escape features as relevant players in the enhancement of seafloor stability?

Fluid migration within the sedimentary column contributes significantly to slope failure and pockmark formation and can be an effective triggering mechanism to generate submarine landslides. Pockmarks are thus commonly listed among geohazards. Contrary to these accepted notions, we propose here an alternative view of pockmarks with an example from the Eastern Niger Submarine Delta: Pockmarks and associated chimneys may increase or modify the shear strength of sedimentary layers and locally enhance seafloor stability. The analysis of two 3D seismic volumes shows that a landslide deposit divides into two branches around a cluster of three pockmark chimneys, interpreted to impede its further development. The morphological characteristics of a slide constrained by fluid seepage features show the potential role of fluid escape in marine sediment strengthening.     

On total turbulent energy and the passive and active role of buoyancy in turbulent momentum and mass transfer

Measurements of turbulent fluctuations of horizontal and vertical components of velocity, salinity and suspended particulate matter are presented. Turbulent Prandtl numbers are found to increase with stratification and to become larger than 1. Consequently, the vertical turbulent mass transport is suppressed by buoyancy forces, before the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and vertical turbulent momentum exchange are inhibited. With increasing stratification, the buoyancy fluxes do not cease, instead they become countergradient. We find that buoyantly driven motions play an active role in the transfer of mass. This is in agreement with trends derived from Monin–Obukhov scaling. For positive Richardson flux numbers (Ri _f ), the log velocity profile in the near-bed layer requires correction with a drag reduction. For negative Ri _f , the log velocity profile should be corrected with a drag increase, with increasing |Ri _f |. This highlights the active role played by buoyancy in momentum transfer and the production of TKE. However, the data do not appear to entirely follow Monin–Obukhov scaling. This is consistent with the notion that the turbulence field is not in equilibrium. The large stratification results in the decay of turbulence and countergradient buoyancy fluxes act to restore equilibrium in the energy budget. This implies that there is a finite adjustment timescale of the turbulence field to changes in velocity shear and density stratification. The energy transfers associated with the source and sink function of the buoyancy flux can be modeled with the concept of total turbulent energy.     

Numerical aspects of a spline-based multiresolution recovery of the harmonic mass density out of gravity functionals

We show the numerical applicability of a multiresolution method based on harmonic splines on the 3-D ball which allows the regularized recovery of the harmonic part of the Earth's mass density distribution out of different types of gravity data, for example, different radial derivatives of the potential, at various positions which need not be located on a common sphere. This approximated harmonic density can be combined with its orthogonal anharmonic complement, for example, determined out of the splitting function of free oscillations, to an approximation of the whole mass density function. The applicability of the presented tool is demonstrated by several test calculations based on simulated gravity values derived from EGM96. The method yields a multiresolution in the sense that the localization of the constructed spline basis functions can be increased which yields in combination with more data a higher resolution of the resulting spline. Moreover, we show that a locally improved data situation allows a highly resolved recovery in this particular area in combination with a coarse approximation elsewhere which is an essential advantage of this method, for example, compared to polynomial approximation.     

Behavior of rigid blocks with geometrical defects under seismic motion: an experimental and numerical study

The present work investigates the influence of small geometrical defects on the behavior of slender rigid blocks. A comprehensive experimental campaign was carried out on one of the shake tables of CEA/Saclay in France. The tested model was a massive steel block with standard manufacturing quality. Release, free oscillations tests as well as shake table tests revealed a non‐negligible out‐of‐plane motion even in the case of apparently plane initial conditions or excitations. This motion exhibits a highly reproducible part for a short duration that was used to calibrate a numerical geometrically asymmetrical model. The stability of this model when subjected to 2000 artificial seismic horizontal bidirectional signals was compared with the stability of a symmetrical one. This study showed that the geometrical imperfections slightly increase the rocking and overturning probabilities for earthquake signals in a narrow range of peak ground acceleration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.