Prediction of wave height based on half-cycle excursion analysis

This paper presents a method to evaluate statistical properties of half-cycle excursions including extreme values. The probability density function for half-cycle excursions for an arbitrarily given wave spectrum is developed based on the Gaussian assumption. The results of numerical computations carried out using wave data obtained during hurricane Camille show that the half-cycle probability density function agrees well with the histogram constructed from the data. The extreme wave height for design consideration computed with risk parameter 0.01 is approximately 20% greater than the observed extreme height.     

Dynamical evolution of NEAs: Close encounters, secular perturbations and resonances

We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v ₆ (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some fast-track dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.On leave from the Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127 Pisa, Italy, thanks to the G. Colombo fellowships of the European Space Agency.     

Paléoenvironnements et caractérisation des roches mères pétrolières des séries pré-salifères du bassin intérieur du Gabon

The Interior Basin of Gabon, created during the break-up between South America and Africa, displays thick Neoproterozoic to Aptian p.p. fluvio-lacustrine deposits overlain by Aptian to Albian marine facies. Rock–Eval analyses from outcrop and drillhole samples show high content in organic matter (up to 25%) related to types I and II. These intervals are encountered within Permian, Neocomian–Barremian as well as Aptian siliciclastic succession. They constitute fairly good to excellent potential petroleum source rocks, which are most probably at the origin of oil indices recognized both in drillholes and in surface.     

Continental subduction and exhumation of UHP rocks. Structural and geochronological insights from the Dabieshan (East China)

In the Dabieshan, the available models for exhumation of ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) rocks are poorly constrained by structural data. A comprehensive structural and kinematic map and a general cross-section of the Dabieshan including its foreland fold belt and the Northern Dabieshan Domain (Foziling and Luzenguang groups) are presented here. South Dabieshan consists from bottom to top of stacked allochtons: (1) an amphibolite facies gneissic unit, devoid of UHP rocks, interpreted here as the relative autochton; (2) an UHP allochton; (3) a HP rock unit (Susong group) mostly retrogressed into greenschist facies micaschists; (4) a weakly metamorphosed Proterozoic slate and sandstone unit; and (5) an unmetamorphosed Cambrian to Early Triassic sedimentary sequence unconformably covered by Jurassic sandstone. All these units exhibit a polyphase ductile deformation characterized by (i) a NW–SE lineation with a top-to-the-NW shearing, and (ii) a southward refolding of early ductile fabrics.

The Central Dabieshan is a 100-km scale migmatitic dome. Newly discovered eclogite xenoliths in a Cretaceous granitoid dated at 102 Ma by the U–Pb method on titanite demonstrate that migmatization post-dates HP–UHP metamorphism. Ductile faults formed in the subsolidus state coeval to migmatization allow us to characterize the structural pattern of doming. Along the dome margins, migmatite is gneissified under post-solidus conditions and mylonitic–ultramylonitic fabrics commonly develop. The north and west boundaries of the Central Dabieshan metamorphics, i.e. the Xiaotian–Mozitan and Macheng faults, are ductile normal faults formed before Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous. A Cretaceous reworking is recorded by synkinematic plutons.

North of the Xiaotian–Mozitan fault, the North Dabieshan Domain consists of metasediments and orthogneiss (Foziling and Luzenguang groups) metamorphosed under greenschist to amphibolite facies which never experienced UHP metamorphism. A rare N–S-trending lineation with top-to-the-south shearing is dated at 260 Ma by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method on muscovite. This early structure related to compressional tectonics is reworked by top-to-the-north extensional shear bands.

The main deformation of the Dabieshan consists of a NW–SE-stretching lineation which wraps around the migmatitic dome but exhibits a consistently top-to-the-NW sense of shear. The Central Dabieshan is interpreted as an extensional migmatitic dome bounded by an arched, top-to-the-NW, detachment fault. This structure may account for a part of the UHP rock exhumation. However, the abundance of amphibolite restites in the Central Dabieshan migmatites and the scarcity of eclogites (found only in a few places) argue for an early stage of exhumation and retrogression of UHP rocks before migmatization. This event is coeval to the N–S extensional structures described in the North Dabieshan Domain. Recent radiometric dates suggest that early exhumation and subsequent migmatization occurred in Triassic–Liassic times. The main foliation is deformed by north-verging recumbent folds coeval to the south-verging folds of the South Dabieshan Domain. An intense Cretaceous magmatism accounts for thermal resetting of most of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates.

A lithosphere-scale exhumation model, involving continental subduction, synconvergence extension with inversion of southward thrusts into NW-ward normal faults and crustal melting is presented.     

A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.     

Field and petrological evidence for a Late Palaeozoic (Upper Carboniferous–Permian) age of the Erfaulet orthogneiss (Gran Paradiso,western Alps)

In the Gran Paradiso massif (western Alps), the boundary between the Erfaulet orthogneiss and the overlying metasediments (Money Complex) is interpreted as a Late Palaeozoic intrusive contact. Major arguments in favour of this hypothesis are: (i) the obliquity of the sedimentary layering with respect to the contact; (ii) the presence of aplitic dykes within the Money Complex; (iii) the lack of a mylonitic zone; and (iv) rare relics of an early generation of garnet in the Money metasediments, interpreted as evidence of the contact metamorphism of the Erfaulet granite. To cite this article: B. Le Bayon, M. Ballèvre, C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).