Postponing emission reductions from 2020 to 2030 increases climate risks and long-term costs

Substantially postponing the emission reductions, compared to the ranges indicated in IPCC’s recent assessment for 2020 as required for meeting the longterm 2°C target, increases the risk of exceeding this target. The costs of a delay strategy are lower in the short term, but leads to higher costs in the longer term. The analysis shows if the emission reductions are postponed to 2030 it is not likely that higher emissions from the earlier years can be fully compensated in future decades in a so-called ‘delayed action scenario’. A full compensation would require emission reduction rates in the coming decades that are much higher than those found in the scenario literature. Without compensation, the risk of exceeding the global temperature rise target of 2°C will increase. This confirms that it is not only the reduction commitments for 2050 that determine the risk of exceeding the 2°C target, but also the path between now and 2050. To meet this 2°C target, more ambitious 2020 reduction targets are needed for the developed and developing countries than those that have been pledged so far.     

Dynamics of Small Earth-Approachers on Low-Eccentricity Orbits and Implications for Their Origins

The population of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) appears to be overabundant at sizes smaller than 50m, compared to a power-law extrapolation from kilometer-sized objects. Several of these small NEAs are also concentrated on low-eccentricity orbits, where a few larger Earth-crossers are observed, and are called Small Earth-Approachers (SEAs). Their source region as well as the dynamical mechanisms involved in their transport close to the Earth on low-eccentricity orbits have not yet been determined. In this paper, we present our numerical and statistical study of the production and dynamical evolution of these SEAs. We first show that three main sources of Earth-crossers which are, according to recent simulations, the 3/1 and ₆ resonances in the main belt, and the Mars-crosser population, are not able to produce as many bodies on SEAs-like orbits compared to other Earth-crossing orbits as has been inferred from observations. From these sources, SEAs-like orbits are reached through the interplay of two required mechanisms: secular resonances and planetary close approaches. However, the time spent on these orbits remains smaller than 1 Myr as confirmed by the study of the evolutions of 11 observed SEAs which also reveal the action of various mechanisms such as close approaches to planets and/or secular resonances. Therefore, our results present some mechanisms which can be responsible for their production but none that would preserve the lifetime of the SEAs sufficiently to enhance their abundance relative to other Earth-crossing orbits at the level observed. The overabundance of the SEA population, if real, remains a problem and could be related to the influence of collisional disruption and tidal splitting of Earth-crossers, as well as to observational biases that might account for a discrepancy between theory and observation.     

Shore litter along sandy beaches of the Gulf of Oman

Beach debris abundance and weight were estimated from surveys on 11 beaches of the Gulf of Oman along the Omani coast. Debris were collected on two occasions from 100 m transects, sorted and categorized by origin and type. Overall contaminations ranged from 0.43 to 6.01 items m(-1) of beach front on different beaches with a mean value of 1.79+/-1.04 gm(-1) (95% C.I). In terms of weight, contamination levels ranged from 7.8 to 75.44 gm(-1) of beach front with a mean contamination of 27.02+/-14.48 gm(-1) (95% C.I). In terms of numbers of items, plastic debris ranked first on all beaches followed by either wood items or other organic materials such as cigarette butts. Industrial debris remained few on all beaches (<10%). Most debris had a local origin and, in terms of numbers, were associated with beach recreational activities whereas fishing debris represented the largest proportion of the debris in terms of weight. There were notable differences between beaches in the relative abundance of recreation-related and fishing-related debris.     

Geochemical influences on H40/1 bacteriophage inactivation in glaciofluvial sands

Geochemical heterogeneities may cause spatial variations in virus inactivation rates resulting from interactions with minerals leading to differences in natural disinfection capacity within an aquifer. Column studies investigating the interaction of the bacteriophage H40/1 with natural sands sampled from the Kappelen test site (Kappelen), Bern, Switzerland indicated that inactivation rates are higher for adsorbed bacteriophages than for those suspended in groundwater. Moreover, breakthrough curves obtained from field-based tracer tests at Kappelen indicated that the adsorbed H40/1 is inactivated in-situ at comparable rates. Statistical analyses of mineralogical data failed to demonstrate significant spatial variations in aquifer composition either across the site or with depth. In contrast hydrochemical analyses of groundwater samples collected at Kappelen demonstrated that iron-reducing groundwater occurs below aerobic waters. Tracer breakthrough curves indicate that H40/1 survival is not affected by variable redox conditions. Investigation results suggest that spatial geochemical variability does not significantly affect H40/1s inactivation rate at Kappelen.     

Environmental and geologic application of solid-state methane sensors

The analysis of methane concentration in natural systems, such as soil, water and atmosphere, is becoming an important and delicate task for environmental research. (1)The characterization of the spatial and temporal variability of these emissions is an important and urgent target for greenhouse-gas and global change studies. In this respect a series of technical specifications are demanded by the scientific community, including sensor portability, low detection limit and the need of analyzing small volumes of gas. Solid-state gas sensors are increasingly used for environmental measurements. A metal oxide semiconductor (e.g., SnO₂, ZnO₂,) is used to fabricate chemical sensors for several gases, in particular methane. The potential of this technique is based on the low conductivity of the material in clean air, which increases with the methane gas concentration in the air. Sensitivity, selectivity, power consumption, long-term stability, and reaction time are all linked together. They all depend on the physico-chemical and geometrical structure of the sensitive layer. This means that improving one parameter has an influence on the others. Therefore, it is necessary to make compromises and select the combination of performances that best meet the application requirements.     

GMM—a gas monitoring module for long-term detection of methane leakage from the seafloor

A new seafloor lander module, the Gas Monitoring Module (GMM), has been developed for continuous and long-term measurements of methane concentration in seawater at the benthic boundary layer, as a result of marine environmental geology and technology synergy. The module is designed to host a series of sensors controlled and managed by a data acquisition and control system able to perform first-level data quality checks. The prototype includes semiconductor methane sensors, an H₂S sensor and a CTD for temperature, salinity, pressure recording, as well as interfaces for additional sensors. The GMM can be linked to submarine cables for real-time data transmission to onshore operators and is suitable for long-term monitoring of natural gas emissions from seafloor or leakages from pipelines and boreholes.     

Variability of the gas transfer velocity of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in a macrotidal estuary (the Scheldt)

We report a large set of 295 interfacial carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux measurements obtained in the Scheldt estuary in November 2002 and April 2003, using the floating chamber method. From concomitant measurements of the air-water CO₂ gradient, we computed the gas transfer velocity of CO₂. The gas transfer velocity is well correlated to wind speed and a simple linear regression function gives the most consistent fit to the data. Based on water current measurements, we estimated the contribution of water current induced turbulence to the gas transfer velocity, using the conceptual relationship of O'Connor and Dobbins (1958). This allowed us to construct an empirical relationship to compute the gas transfer velocity of CO₂ that accounts for the contribution of wind and water current. Based on this relationship, the spatial and temporal variability of the gas transfer velocity in the Scheldt estuary was investigated. Water currents contribute significantly to the gas transfer velocity, but the spatial and temporal variability (from daily to seasonal scales) is mainly related to wind speed variability.     

An <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar,Rb/Sr,and stable isotope study of micas in low-grade fold-and-thrust belt: an example from the Swiss Helvetic Alps

White micas in carbonate-rich tectonites and a few other rock types of large thrusts in the Swiss Helvetic fold-and-thrust belt have been analyzed by ⁴⁰Ar/ ³⁹Ar and Rb/Sr techniques to better constrain the timing of Alpine deformation for this region. Incremental ⁴⁰Ar/ ³⁹Ar heating experiments of 25 weakly metamorphosed (anchizone to low greenschist) samples yield plateau and staircase spectra. We interpret most of the staircase release spectra result from variable mixtures of syntectonic (neoformed) and detrital micas. The range in dates obtained within individual spectra depends primarily on the duration of mica nucleation and growth, and relative proportions of neoformed and detrital mica. Rb/Sr analyses of 12 samples yield dates of ca. 10–39 Ma (excluding one anomalously young sample). These dates are slightly younger than the ⁴⁰Ar/ ³⁹Ar total gas dates obtained for the same samples. The Rb/Sr dates were calculated using initial ⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr ratios obtained from the carbonate-dominated host rocks, which are higher than normal Mesozoic carbonate values due to exchange with fluids of higher ⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr ratios (and lower ¹⁸O/ ¹⁶O ratios). Model dates calculated using ⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr values typical of Mesozoic marine carbonates more closely approximate the ⁴⁰Ar/ ³⁹Ar total gas dates for most of the samples. The similarities of Rb/Sr and ⁴⁰Ar/ ³⁹Ar total gas dates are consistent with limited amounts of detrital mica in the samples. The d ¹⁸O values range from 24–15‰ (VSMOW) for 2–6 µm micas and 27–16‰ for the carbonate host rocks. The carbonate values are significantly lower than their protolith values due to localized fluid-rock interaction and fluid flow along most thrust surfaces. Although most calcite-mica pairs are not in oxygen isotope equilibrium at temperatures of ca. 200–400 °C, their isotopic fractionations are indicative of either 1) partial exchange between the minerals and a common external fluid, or 2) growth or isotopic exchange of the mica with the carbonate after the carbonate had isotopically exchanged with an external fluid. The geological significance of these results is not easily or uniquely determined, and exemplifies the difficulties inherent in dating very fine-grained micas of highly deformed tectonites in low-grade metamorphic terranes. Two generalizations can be made regarding the dates obtained from the Helvetic thrusts: 1) samples from the two highest thrusts (Mt. Gond and Sublage) have all of their ⁴⁰Ar/ ³⁹Ar steps above 20 Ma, and 2) most samples from the deepest Helvetic thrusts have steps (often accounting for more than 80% of ³⁹Ar release) between 15 and 25 Ma. These dates are consistent with the order of thrusting in the foreland-imbricating system and increase proportions of neoformed to detrital mica in the more metamorphosed hinterland and deeply buried portions of the nappe pile. Individual thrusts accommodated the majority of their displacement during their initial incorporation into the foreland-imbricating system, and some thrusts remained active or were reactivated down to 15 Ma.