Synoptic and mesoscale study of a severe convective outbreak with the nonhydrostatic Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model

Summary ?A nonhydrostatic 4-km version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, with detailed microphysics included, was used to forecast the initiation, development, and structure of a tornado-producing supercell storm that occurred near Pine Lake (Alberta, Canada) on 15 July 2000. Examination of observations and comparison with conceptual models indicate that this storm is a good example of supercell storms that regularly produce summertime severe weather over Alberta. It was found that the high-resolution model was able to reproduce the early initiation of convective activity along the Rocky Mountains foothills, as well as the rapid northeastward propagation towards the Pine Lake area and the subsequent intensification into a supercell storm. The general structures of the forecasted convective system correspond well with conceptual representations of such events. Overall, this high-resolution forecast of the Pine Lake supercell storm was a significant improvement over the current operational version of the GEM model (24 km), which was not able to intensify the foothills’ convection into a supercell storm. Finally, it was found that the nonhydrostatic version of the model produces better trajectory and propagation speed of the convective system, as compared with the hydrostatic one. Received March 20, 2001; revised August 24, 2001     

A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.     

Transport in a 2-D saturated porous medium: A new method for particle tracking

A new method for solving the transport equation based on the management of a large numbe of particles in a discretized 2-D domain is presented. The method uses numerical variables to represent the number of particles in a given mesh and is more complex than the 1-D problem. The first part of the paper focuses on the specific management of particles in a 2-D problem. The method also would be valid for three dimensions as long as the medium can be modeled similar to a layered system. As the particles are no longer tracked individually, the algorithm is fast and does not depend on the number of particles present. The numerical tests show that the method is nearly numerical dispersion free and permits accurate calculations even for simulations of low-concentration transport. Because each mesh is considered as a closed system between two successive time steps, it is easy to add adsorption phenomenon without any problem of numerical stability. The model is tested under conditions that are extremely demanding for its operating mode and gives a good fit to analytical solutions. The conditions in which it can be used to best advantage are discussed.     

The age and thermal history of Cerro Rico de Potosi, Bolivia

 Cerro Rico de Potosi, Bolivia, is the world’s largest silver deposit and has been mined since the sixteenth century for silver, and for tin and zinc during the twentieth century, together with by-product copper and lead. The deposit consists primarily of veins that cut an altered igneous body that we interpret to be a dacitic volcanic dome and its underlying tuff ring and explosion breccia. The deposit is compositionally and thermally zoned, having a core of cassiterite, wolframite, bismuthinite, and arsenopyrite surrounded by a peripheral, lower-temperature mineral assemblage consisting principally of sphalerite, galena, lead sulfosalt, and silver minerals. The low-temperature assemblage also was superimposed on the high-temperature assemblage in response to cooling of the main hydrothermal system. Both the dacite dome and the ore fluids were derived from a larger magmatic/hydrothermal source at depth. The dome was repeatedly fractured by recurrent movement on the fault system that guided its initial emplacement. The dome was extruded at 13.8±0.2 Ma (2σ), based on U-Th-Pb dating of zircon. Mineralization and alteration occurred within about 0.3 my of dome emplacement, as indicated by a ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar date of 13.76±0.10 Ma (1σ) for sericite from the pervasive quartz-sericite-pyrite alteration associated with the main-stage, high-temperature, mineralization. The last thermal event able to reset zircon fission tracks occurred no later than 12.5±1.1 Ma (1σ), as indicated by fission-tract dating. Minor sericite, and magmatic-steam alunite veins, were episodically formed around 11 Ma and between 8.3 and 5.7 Ma; the younger episodes occurring at the time of extensional fracturing at Cerro Rico and widespread volcanism in the adjacent Los Frailes volcanic field. None of these younger events appear to be significant thermal/mineralizing events; the exceptionally flat thermal release pattern of ³⁹Ar from sericite and the results of the fission-tract dating of zircon show that none of the younger events was hot enough, and lasted long enough, to cause significant loss of Ar or annealing of zircon fission tracks. U-Th-Pb dating of zircon cores indicates a Precambrian progenitor for some zircons, and REE analyses of dated samples of hydrothermally altered dacite show the presence of a prominent positive Eu anomaly, which constrains interpretations of the origin and evolution of the magmatic/hydrothermal system. Received: 14 October 1995/Accepted: 29 January 1996     

The replacement of anthophyllite by jimthompsonite: a model for hydration reactions in biopyriboles

Anthophyllite crystals found in ultramafic lenses of the Lepontine Alps (Switzerland) contain coherent, submicroscopic intergrowths of ordered and disordered biopyribole polysomes. The chain width distributions of disordered polysomes were analyzed using high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM). Chains wider than triple were interpreted as intermediate products in the transformation of anthophyllite to the triple chain silicate jimthompsonite. The concentration of individual chain types is strongly correlated with the reaction progress. Based on observed zipper terminations and the transformation rules given by Veblen and Buseck (1980) a scheme of possible reaction paths leading from anthophyllite to jimthomp sonite is proposed. The reaction scheme and a simple kinetic model for elementary reactions allow modeling of the observed chain width distributions. The model suggests that the complex reaction paths involving steps with increasing and decreasing chain width are more important in the formation of jimthompsonite than the direct transformation from anthophyllite. The wide chains (>triple) occurring as intermediate products of the multi-step paths are structurally closer to talc than jimthompsonite. The back-transformation of these wide chains to triple chains is, therefore, a strong argument that jimthompsonite is a stable phase and not only a metastable intermediate product in the transformation of anthophyllite to talc. Received: 8 July 1996 / Accepted: 13 December 1996     

Methodical approach to distribution of epilithic and drifting algae communities in a French subalpine river: Inferences on water quality assessment

In a sub-alpine river, the Asse, with an unpredictable discharge regime, chlorophyll, density and taxonomic diversity of both drifting and periphytic communities were studied from a methodical approach. The investigations based on stamping two close cross-sections to know their spatial distributions in a heterogeneous bed substrate showed a heterogeneous pattern of colonization mainly influenced by hydrological variables as the current velocity, the size of the substrata (gravel-pebble-boulder). For the drifting algae, mainly composed with benthic species temporarily unhooked to the substrata, the heterogeneity of the distribution was reduced in fast flow which induced a mixing of the whole mass of water. For the periphyton, some results indicated that the greatest diversity and the highest chlorophyll concentration were found on pebble substratum where the current velocity was moderate. These results have also shown that the classical methods used to day for investigations were inadequate for most Mediterranean rivers. It was really difficult to estimate the water quality from classical index created for use in regular large plain rivers.     

Investigating the Halogen Chemistry From High-Latitude Nighttime Stratospheric Measurements of OClO and NO2

Two cases of simultaneous nighttime measurements of NO₂ and OClO in the winter polar stratosphere are analyzed in order to test our present knowledge of halogen chemistry in the presence of high amount of NO₂ at low temperature. Comparisons with Lagrangian model calculations using several hypotheses are performed. First simulations, using the admitted constant rates of chemical reaction, strongly underestimate the measured OClO while the NO₂ profiles are correctly reproduced. If uncertainties in actinic fluxes calculations are taken into account, simulation results do not show a significant reduction of the underestimation. A better agreement can be achieved if the formation of unstable isomers of ClONO₂ and of BrONO₂ occurs in the cold conditions of the polar stratosphere. An approximate value of the branching ratios of the channels leading to ClONO₂ and ClOONO, and to BrONO₂ and BrOONO, necessary to reproduce both OClO and NO₂ is given and discussed.     

华南石炭纪岩关-大塘界线期牙形石地层分带

系统采集不同沉积相区和连续沉积的剖面，即浅海台地相广西柳江龙殿山剖面、台缘缓坡相云南施甸鱼硐剖面和台内盆地相广西柳州碰冲剖面，运用数理统计方法，研究了华南岩关一大塘界线过渡期牙形石的产出丰度和相分布，在恢复生物演化序列的基础上，对各剖面首先详细分带，再进一步综合成系统的5个牙形石带，即Gnathodus typicus—G．cuneiformis带、Gnathodus typicus—Protognathodus cordiformis带、Scaliognathus anchoralis—Gnathodus pseu-dosemiglaber带、Gnathodus praebilineatus带和Paragnathodus horrtopunctatus带。以生物系统发生为标准，严格限定各带的界线，并与北美、西欧同期地层进行精确对比，为建立杜内阶一维宪阶界线的全球层型(GSSP)提供可靠依据。