Prediction of wave height based on half-cycle excursion analysis

This paper presents a method to evaluate statistical properties of half-cycle excursions including extreme values. The probability density function for half-cycle excursions for an arbitrarily given wave spectrum is developed based on the Gaussian assumption. The results of numerical computations carried out using wave data obtained during hurricane Camille show that the half-cycle probability density function agrees well with the histogram constructed from the data. The extreme wave height for design consideration computed with risk parameter 0.01 is approximately 20% greater than the observed extreme height.     

Formation of the mid-fifteenth century Kuwae caldera (Vanuatu) by an initial hydroclastic and subsequent ignimbritic eruption

In the mid-fifteenth century, one of the largest eruptions of the last 10 000 years occurred in the Central New Hebrides arc, forming the Kuwae caldera (12x6 km). This eruption followed a late maar phase in the pre-caldera edifice, responsible for a series of alternating hydromagmatic deposits and airfall lapilli layers. Tuffs related to caldera formation ( 120 m of deposits on a composite section from the caldera wall) were emitted during two main ignimbritic phases associated with two additional hydromagmatic episodes. The lower hydromagmatic tuffs from the precaldera maar phase are mainly basaltic andesite in composition, but clasts show compositions ranging from 48 to 60% SiO₂. The unwelded and welded ashflow deposits from the ignimbritic phases and the associated intermediate and upper hydromagmatic deposits also show a wide compositional range (60–73% SiO₂), but are dominantly dacitic. This broad compositional range is thought to be due to crystal fractionation. The striking evolution from one eruptive style (hydromagmatic) to the other (magmatic with emission of a large volume of ignimbrites) which occurred either over the tuff series as a whole, or at the beginning of each ignimbritic phase, is the most impressive characteristic of the caldera-forming event. This strongly suggests triggering of the main eruptive phases by magma-water interaction. A three-step model of caldera formation is presented: (1) moderate hydromagmatic (sequences HD 1–4) and magmatic (fallout deposits) activity from a central vent, probably over a period of months or years, affected an area slightly wider than the present caldera. At the end of this stage, intense seismic activity and extrusion of differentiated magma outside the caldera area occurred; (2) unhomogenized dacite was released during a hydromagmatic episode (HD 5). This was immediately followed by two major pyroclastic flows (PFD 1 and 2). The vents spread and intense magma-water interaction at the beginning of this stage decreased rapidly as magma discharge increased. Subsequent collapse of the caldera probably commenced in the southeastern sector of the caldera; (3) dacitic welded tuffs were emplaced during a second main phase (WFD 1–5). At the beginning of this phase, magma-water interaction continued, producing typical hydromagmatic deposits (HD 6). Caldera collapse extended to the northern part of the caldera. Previous C¹⁴ dates and records of explosive volcanism in ice from the south Pole show that the climactic phase of this event occurred in 1452 A.D.     

Dynamical evolution of NEAs: Close encounters, secular perturbations and resonances

We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v ₆ (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some fast-track dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.On leave from the Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127 Pisa, Italy, thanks to the G. Colombo fellowships of the European Space Agency.     

Tripartite climate reversal in Central Europe 5600-5300 years ago

The history of variations in water level of Lake Constance, as reconstructed from sediment and pollen analysis of a sediment sequence from the archaeological site of Arbon-Bleiche 3, shows an abrupt rise in lake level dendrochronologically dated to 5375 yr ago (5320 yr relative to AD 1950). This event, paralleled by the destruction of the Neolithic village by fire, provoked the abandonment of this prehistoric lake-shore location established in the former shallow bay of Arbon-Bleiche, and was the last of a series of three episodes of successively higher lake level, the first occurring at 5600-5500 cal yr B.P. The dendrochronologically dated rise event was synchronous with an abrupt increase in atmospheric ¹⁴C. This supports the hypothesis of an abrupt climate change forced by varying solar activity. Moreover, the three successive episodes of higher lake level between 5600 and 5300 cal yr B.P. at Arbon-Bleiche 3 coincided with climatic cooling and/or changes in moisture conditions in various regions of both hemispheres. This period corresponds to the mid-Holocene climate transition (onset of the Neoglaciation) and suggests inter-hemispheric linkages for the climate variations recorded at Arbon-Bleiche 3. This mid-Holocene climate reversal may have resulted from complex interactions between changes in orbital forcing, ocean circulation and solar activity. Finally, despite different seasonal hydrological regimes, the similarities between lake-level records from Lake Constance and from Jurassian lakes over the mid-Holocene period point to time scale as a crucial factor in considering the possible impact of climate change on environments.     

Effects of magnetic interactions in anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility: Models, experiments and implications for igneous rock fabrics quantification

Besides granites of the ilmenite series, in which the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) is mainly controlled by paramagnetic minerals, the AMS of igneous rocks is commonly interpreted as the result of the shape-preferred orientation of unequant ferromagnetic grains. In a few instances, the anisotropy due to the distribution of ferromagnetic grains, irrespective of their shape, has also been proposed as an important AMS source. Former analytical models that consider infinite geometry of identical and uniformly magnetized and coaxial particles confirm that shape fabric may be overcome by dipolar contributions if neighboring grains are close enough to each other to magnetically interact. On these bases we present and experimentally validate a two-grain macroscopic numerical model in which each grain carries its own magnetic anisotropy, volume, orientation and location in space. Compared with analytical predictions and available experiments, our results allow to list and quantify the factors that affect the effects of magnetic interactions. In particular, we discuss the effects of (i) the infinite geometry used in the analytical models, (ii) the intrinsic shape anisotropy of the grains, (iii) the relative orientation in space of the grains, and (iv) the spatial distribution of grains with a particular focus on the inter-grain distance distribution. Using documented case studies, these findings are summarized and discussed in the framework of the generalized total AMS tensor recently introduced by Cañon-Tapia (Cañon-Tapia, E., 2001. Factors affecting the relative importance of shape and distribution anisotropy in rocks: theory and experiments. Tectonophysics, 340, 117–131.). The most important result of our work is that analytical models far overestimate the role of magnetic interaction in rock fabric quantification. Considering natural rocks as an assemblage of interacting and non-interacting grains, and that the effects of interaction are reduced by (i) the finite geometry of the interacting clusters, (ii) the relative orientation between interacting grains, (iii) their heterogeneity in orientation, shape and bulk susceptibility, and (iv) their inter-distance distribution, we reconcile analytical models and experiments with real case studies that minimize the role of magnetic interaction onto the measured AMS. Limitations of our results are discussed and guidelines are provided for the use of AMS in geological interpretation of igneous rock fabrics where magnetic interactions are likely to occur.     

新疆博格达南缘后碰撞期陆内裂谷和水下滑塌构造

本文较为系统地研究了哈密市七角井-车轱辘泉和乌鲁木齐市白杨沟地区晚古生代后碰撞期陆内裂谷和滑塌构造的几何学、岩石学和地球化学特征。研究表明,在博格达山南缘的七角井-车轱辘泉一带,玄武岩和流纹岩彼此互层产出,构成厚度较大的后碰撞期双峰式火山岩系,呈近东西方向平行造山带展布,堆积在早二叠世红色磨拉石之上;在白杨沟一带,后碰撞水下滑塌堆积岩与火山岩共存,构成一个厚1300m的滑塌构造剖面,由水下滑塌堆积岩夹双峰式火山岩带、枕状熔岩-气孔状玄武岩带和硅质、泥砂质岩带所组成。其底部以北东走向的拆离断层和晚石炭世灰岩、砂岩岩层接触。在岩石地球化学特征上,火山岩的SiO2含量在53%-67%之间出现间断,呈现双峰式火山岩的特点。其中,流纹岩SiO2平均71.65%,CaO2.15%,Na2O与K2O含量相近(3.2%-3.7%),含碱量>含钙量,ANKC值>1.1;轻稀土富集、稀土总量高,铕亏损,具明显Eu负异常。与之共生的玄武岩则以富硅贫碱为特征,SiO2平均51.05%,TiO2含量变化较大,轻稀土轻度富集,铕异常不明显,属拉斑系列玄武岩类。其特征和东非阿法尔裂谷的双峰式火山岩相近,反映陆内裂谷环境。对滑塌堆积岩带中的辉绿玢岩作锆石U-Pb测年,获289±5Ma年龄值,相当于二叠纪初期。从晚二迭叠世开始,全区处于相对稳定的剥蚀-堆积环境中,形成了厚度较大的磨拉石,并逐渐演化为三叠纪的准平原化环境。