Compromise not consensus: designing a participatory process for landslide risk mitigation

With the escalating costs of landslides, the challenge for local authorities is to develop institutional arrangements for landslide risk management that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by those affected. For this purpose, the participation of stakeholders in the decision-making process is mandated by the European Union as a way of improving its perceived legitimacy and transparency. This paper reports on an analytical-deliberative process for selecting landslide risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore in southern Italy. The process was structured as a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included a literature/media review, semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a survey eliciting residents’ views on landslide risk management. The main point of departure in the design of this process was the explicit elicitation and structuring of multiple worldviews (or perspectives) among the participants with respect to the nature of the problem and its solution. Rather than eliciting preferences using decision analytical methods (e.g. utility theory or multi-criteria evaluation), this process built on a body of research—based on the theory of plural rationality—that has teased out the limited number of contending and socially constructed definitions of problem-and-solution that are able to achieve viability. This framing proved effective in structuring participants’ views and arriving at a compromise recommendation (not, as is often aimed for, a consensus) on measures for reducing landslide risk. Experts played a unique role in this process by providing a range of policy options that corresponded to the different perspectives held by the participants.     

Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.     

Do Macroalgal Mats Impact Microphytobenthos on Mudflats? Evidence from a Meta-Analysis,Comparative Survey,and Large-Scale Manipulation

Eutrophication and species introductions have resulted in increased macroalgal biomass in coastal ecosystems around the globe. Macroalgal mats may compete with microphytobenthos (MPB) for light and nutrients and, due to their position in the canopy, have a negative impact on MPB biomass. We tested this effect by conducting a meta-analysis of prior experiments, as well as a comparative survey, and a macroalgal-removal manipulation in the coastal lagoons of the Virginia Coastal Reserve (VCR) on the eastern shore of Virginia (USA). In all cases, MPB biomass was estimated using benthic chlorophyll as a proxy. While prior individual studies documented impacts of macroalgae, when effect sizes were averaged across studies, there was no consistent effect of macroalgal biomass on MPB biomass. In the VCR, a non-native red macroalga, Gracilaria vermiculophylla, dominates intertidal mats and attains high biomasses at some sites. Nevertheless, MPB biomass was unrelated to macroalgal mass based on a survey of mudflats. Further, when macroalgae were experimentally manipulated on a mudflat using a before and after impact design, there was no change in MPB. Based on the meta-analysis, survey, and manipulation we conducted, macroalgal mats do not have a generalizable effect on MPB, interactions seem context-dependent, and in the VCR, the effects on MPB appear neutral. This finding is important given the significance of MPB in supporting food webs and other estuarine ecosystem functions, as well as the increasing frequency and intensity of macroalgal blooms.