Compromise not consensus: designing a participatory process for landslide risk mitigation

With the escalating costs of landslides, the challenge for local authorities is to develop institutional arrangements for landslide risk management that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by those affected. For this purpose, the participation of stakeholders in the decision-making process is mandated by the European Union as a way of improving its perceived legitimacy and transparency. This paper reports on an analytical-deliberative process for selecting landslide risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore in southern Italy. The process was structured as a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included a literature/media review, semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a survey eliciting residents’ views on landslide risk management. The main point of departure in the design of this process was the explicit elicitation and structuring of multiple worldviews (or perspectives) among the participants with respect to the nature of the problem and its solution. Rather than eliciting preferences using decision analytical methods (e.g. utility theory or multi-criteria evaluation), this process built on a body of research—based on the theory of plural rationality—that has teased out the limited number of contending and socially constructed definitions of problem-and-solution that are able to achieve viability. This framing proved effective in structuring participants’ views and arriving at a compromise recommendation (not, as is often aimed for, a consensus) on measures for reducing landslide risk. Experts played a unique role in this process by providing a range of policy options that corresponded to the different perspectives held by the participants.     

Cambrian Stem-group Cnidarians with a New Species from the Cambrian Series 3 of the Taebaeksan Basin, Korea

Five species, Lipopora lissa Jell and Jell, 1976, Lipopora daseia Jell and Jell, 1976, Tretocylichne perplexa Engelbretsen, 1993 from Australia, Cambroctoconus orientalis Park, Woo, Lee, Lee, Lee, Han and Chough, 2011 from China, and Cambroctoconus kyrgyzstanicus Peel, 2014 from Kyrgyzstan, belonging to the Cambrian stem-group cnidarians have been documented in the fossil record. Cambroctoconus coreaensis sp. nov., interpreted here as a stem-group cnidarian, from the Seokgaejae section in the Daegi Formation, Taebaek Group (Cambrian Series 3), Taebaeksan Basin, central-eastern Korean Peninsula, has a slender cup-shaped skeleton. A cladistic analysis produced 21 most parsimonious trees, which invariably placed the six stem-group cnidarians below the crown-group, but their relationships within the stem-group are unresolved. Nine out of the 21 trees suggest a monophyletic relationship for the Cambrian stem-group cnidarians, whereas in six other trees a monophyly of Cambroctoconus and Tretocylichne appeared as the sister-group to the crown-group cnidarians with Lipopora at the most basal branch. This result may reflect the fact that crown-group cnidarians evolved in the Precambrian, and suggests that the diversity of stem-group cnidarians was a result of an independent radiation in the Cambrian.     

Benthic foraminifera in sandy (siliciclastic) coastal sediments of the Arabian Gulf (Saudi Arabia): a technical report

The Uromia–Dokhtar Magmatic Arc (UDMA) is a northwest–southeast trending magmatic belt which is formed due to oblique subduction of Neotethys underneath Central Iran and dominantly comprises magmatic rocks. The Jebal-e-Barez Plutonic Complex (JBPC) is located southeast of the UDMA and composed of quartz diorite, granodiorite, granite, and alkali granite. Magmatic enclaves, ranging in composition from felsic to mafic, are abundant in the studied rocks. Based on the whole rock and mineral chemistry study, the granitoids are typically medium-high K calc-alkaline and metaluminous to peraluminous that show characteristics of I-type granitoids. The high field strength (HFS) and large ionic radius lithophile (LIL) element geochemistry suggests fractional crystallization as a major process in the evolution of the JBPC. The tectonomagmatic setting of the granitoids is compatible with the arc-related granitic suite, a pre-plate collision granitic suite, and a syncollision granitic suite. Field observations and petrographic and geochemical studies suggest that the rocks in this area are I-type granitoids and continental collision granitoids (CCG), continental arc granitoids (CAG), and island arc granitoid (IAG) subsections. The geothermobarometry based on the electron probe microanalysis of amphibole, feldspars, and biotite from selected rocks of JBPC implies that the complex formed at high-level depths (i.e., 9–12 km; upper continental crust) and at temperatures ranging from 650 to 750 °C under oxidation conditions. It seems that JBPC is located within a shear zone period, and structural setting of JBPC is extensional shear fractures which are product of transpression tectonic regime. All available data suggested that these granitoids may be derived from a magmatic arc that was formed by northeastern ward subduction of the Neotethyan oceanic crust beneath the Central Iran in Paleogene and subsequent collision between the Arabian and Iranian plates in Miocene.

     

Reconstruction of Holocene paleohydrological and sedimentological characteristics of Umm Ar-Rimam basin (northern Kuwait)

The paleohydrological and sedimentological characteristics of a playa lake in northern Kuwait (Arabian Gulf) are reconstructed using sedimentological, geochemical, and isotopic techniques. The sequence consists of up to 8 cycles of S-poor, alluvial sediments capped by a thin organic soil interbedded with gravity-fall calcrete sediments. The succession is locally derived from mainly Quaternary sediments and is regressive with upsection filling of the subsiding basin by cycles of sheetwash flow in response to climatic change. There is no natural, open-water lake water as indicated by low total organic carbon (TOC) data, but the presence of incised calcrete yardangs suggests that more extensive open-water conditions were operative in the past. Stable isotope (δ¹⁸O‰ and δ¹³C‰) values of the authigenic carbonates indicate the following three distinct processes: evaporation, meteoric fluid infiltration, and rapid per-descensum flow (rapid downward movement of water and playa sediment through pipes) through a porous, clastic sequence. Because evaporites are scarce, other factors besides evaporation action control chemical and isotopic compositions of the per-decensum lake fluids. Consequently, the isotopic composition cannot be interpreted exclusively as an indicator of salinity or evaporation ratio. The degassing of CO₂ during groundwater discharge may explain the enriched carbon isotope values for the authigenic carbonates precipitated in the sediments. Hydrologically closed lake water bodies tend to show low negative carbonate oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures. Isotopically negative δ¹³C values imply a strong input of soil-zone carbon to the groundwater of the top 60 cm of the sediment. Lakes that are hydrologically closed and evaporate or equilibrate with atmospheric CO₂ will tend to have low negative δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values in the carbonates as reported by Talbot (Chem Geol: Isotope Geosci Sect 80(4):261–279, 1990). Biologically active lakes will tend toward lower δ¹³C of dissolved carbon due to the photosynthetic effects of ¹²C withdrawal as reported by Dunagan and Driese (J Sed Res 69:772–783, 1999). Increased biological activity during sedimentation may account for low carbon isotope values where plants were abundant, but in shrinkage-dominated systems (those of clay-rich soil subjecting to wet-dry conditions), carbon isotopes will be largely inherited from the calcretic limestones in the land extending landward of the coast and not influenced by coastal processes (known as hinterland), such as Umm Ar-Rimam depression. This basin does not fit the classic shallow playa-type basins of the Arabian Peninsula but rather the recharge playas of the southwestern USA.     

Ocean currents determine functional connectivity in an Antarctic deep‐sea shrimp

The coherency among larval stages of marine taxa, ocean currents and population connectivity is still subject to discussion. A common view is that organisms with pelagic larval stages have higher dispersal abilities and therefore show a relatively homogeneous population genetic structure. Contrary to this, local genetic differentiation is assumed for many benthic direct developers. Specific larval or adult migratory behavior and hydrographic effects may significantly influence distribution patterns, rather than passive drifting abilities alone. The Southern Ocean is an ideal environment to test for the effects of ocean currents on population connectivity as it is characterized by several well‐defined and strong isolating current systems. In this study we studied the genetic structure of the decapod deep‐sea shrimp Nematocarcinus lanceopes, which has planktotrophic larval stages. We analysed 194 individuals from different sample localities around the Antarctic continent using nine microsatellite markers. Consistent with a previous study based on mitochondrial DNA markers, primarily weak genetic patterns among N. lanceopes populations around the continent were found. Using ocean resistance modeling approaches we were able to show that subtle genetic differences among populations are more likely explained by ocean currents rather than by geographic distance for the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean.     

Tectonic Subsidence of California Estuaries Increases Forecasts of Relative Sea-Level Rise

Even along the generally uplifting coast of the Pacific US, local geologic structures can cause subsidence. In this study, we quantify Holocene-averaged subsidence rates in four estuaries (Carpinteria Slough, Goleta Slough, Campus Lagoon, and Morro Bay) along the southern and central California coast by comparing radiocarbon-dated estuarine material to a regional sea-level curve. Holocene-averaged rates of vertical motion range from subsidence of 1.4?±?2.4, 1.2±0.4, and 0.4?±?0.3 mm/year in Morro Bay, Carpinteria Slough, and Goleta Slough, respectively, to possible uplift in Campus Lagoon (?0.1?±?0.9 mm/year). The calculated rates of subsidence are of the same magnitude as rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the late Holocene and effectively double the ongoing rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the last five decades on other parts of the coast. The difference in rates of vertical motion among these four estuaries is attributed to their geological settings. Estuaries developed in subsiding geological structures such as synclines and fault-bounded basins are subsiding at much higher rates than those developed within flooded river valleys incised into marine terraces. Restoration projects accounting for future sea-level rise must consider the geologic setting of the estuaries and, if applicable, include subsidence in future sea-level rise scenarios, even along the tectonically uplifting US Pacific Coast.     

Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.