Systematic marine conservation planning in data-poor regions: Socioeconomic data is essential

Systematic planning for conservation is highly regarded but relies on spatially explicit data that are lacking in many areas of conservation concern. The decision support tool Marxan is applied to a reef system in the central Philippines where 30 marine protected areas (MPAs) have been established in communities without much use of biophysical data. The intent was to explore how Marxan might assist with the legally required expansion to protect 15% of marine waters, and how existing MPAs might affect that process. Results show that biophysical information alone did not provide much guidance in identifying patterns of conservation importance in areas where the data are poor. Socioeconomic data were needed to distinguish among possible areas for protection; but here, as elsewhere in marine environments, the availability of such data was very limited. In the final analysis, local knowledge and integrated understanding of socioeconomic realities may offer the best spatially explicit information. The 30 existing MPAs, which encompassed a small proportion of the reef system, did not limit future options in developing a suite of MPAs on a broader scale. Rather, they appeared to generate the support for MPAs that is obligatory for any larger zoning effort. In summary, establishing MPAs based on community-driven criteria has biological and social value, but efforts should be made to collect ecological and socioeconomic data to guide the continued creation of MPAs.     

Exploring the sensitivity of coastal inundation modelling to DEM vertical error

As sea level is projected to rise throughout the twenty-first century due to climate change, there is a need to ensure that sea level rise (SLR) models accurately and defensibly represent future flood inundation levels to allow for effective coastal zone management. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are integral to SLR modelling, but are subject to error, including in their vertical resolution. Error in DEMs leads to uncertainty in the output of SLR inundation models, which if not considered, may result in poor coastal management decisions. However, DEM error is not usually described in detail by DEM suppliers; commonly only the RMSE is reported. This research explores the impact of stated vertical error in delineating zones of inundation in two locations along the Devon, United Kingdom, coastline (Exe and Otter Estuaries). We explore the consequences of needing to make assumptions about the distribution of error in the absence of detailed error data using a 1 m, publically available composite DEM with a maximum RMSE of 0.15 m, typical of recent LiDAR-derived DEMs. We compare uncertainty using two methods (i) the NOAA inundation uncertainty mapping method which assumes a normal distribution of error and (ii) a hydrologically correct bathtub method where the DEM is uniformly perturbed between the upper and lower bounds of a 95% linear error in 500 Monte Carlo Simulations (HBM+MCS). The NOAA method produced a broader zone of uncertainty (an increase of 134.9% on the HBM+MCS method), which is particularly evident in the flatter topography of the upper estuaries. The HBM+MCS method generates a narrower band of uncertainty for these flatter areas, but very similar extents where shorelines are steeper. The differences in inundation extents produced by the methods relate to a number of underpinning assumptions, and particularly, how the stated RMSE is interpreted and used to represent error in a practical sense. Unlike the NOAA method, the HBM+MCS model is computationally intensive, depending on the areas under consideration and the number of iterations. We therefore used the HBM+ MCS method to derive a regression relationship between elevation and inundation probability for the Exe Estuary. We then apply this to the adjacent Otter Estuary and show that it can defensibly reproduce zones of inundation uncertainty, avoiding the computationally intensive step of the HBM+MCS. The equation-derived zone of uncertainty was 112.1% larger than the HBM+MCS method, compared to the NOAA method which produced an uncertain area 423.9% larger. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages and requires value judgements to be made. Their use underscores the need for transparency in assumptions and communications of outputs. We urge DEM publishers to move beyond provision of a generalised RMSE and provide more detailed estimates of spatial error and complete metadata, including locations of ground control points and associated land cover.     

Influence of vegetation change on watershed hydrology: implications for paleoclimatic interpretation of lacustrine δ18O records

Stratigraphic shifts in the oxygen isotopic (¹⁸O) and trace element (Mg and Sr) composition of biogenic carbonate from tropical lake sediment cores are often interpreted as a proxy record of the changing relation between evaporation and precipitation (E/P). Holocene ¹⁸O and Mg and Sr records from Lakes Salpetén and Petén Itzá, Guatemala were apparently affected by drainage basin vegetation changes that influenced watershed hydrology, thereby confounding paleoclimatic interpretations. Oxygen isotope values and trace element concentrations in the two lowland lakes were greatest between ~ 9000 and 6800 ¹⁴C-yr BP, suggesting relatively high E/P, but pollen data indicate moist conditions and extensive forest cover in the early Holocene. The discrepancy between pollen- and geochemically-inferred climate conditions may be reconciled if the high early Holocene ¹⁸O and trace element values were controlled principally by low surface runoff and groundwater flow to the lake, rather than high E/P. Dense forest cover in the early Holocene would have increased evapotranspiration and soil moisture storage, thereby reducing delivery of meteoric water to the lakes. Carbonate ¹⁸O and Mg and Sr decreased between 7200 and 3500 ¹⁴C-yr BP in Lake Salpetén and between 6800 and 5000 ¹⁴C-yr BP in Lake Petén Itzá. This decline coincided with palynologically documented forest loss that may have led to increased surface and groundwater flow to the lakes. In Lake Salpetén, minimum ¹⁸O values (i.e., high lake levels) occurred between 3500 and 1800 ¹⁴C-yr BP. Relatively high lake levels were confirmed by ¹⁴C-dated aquatic gastropods from subaerial soil profiles ~ 1.0–7.5 m above present lake stage. High lake levels were a consequence of lower E/P and/or greater surface runoff and groundwater inflow caused by human-induced deforestation.     

Diurnal variation of electron density in Saturn’s ionosphere: Model comparisons with Saturn Electrostatic Discharge (SED) observations

Using the Saturn Thermosphere Ionosphere Model (STIM), we present a study of the diurnal variation of electron density, with a focus on comparisons with peak electron densities (N_MAX) inferred from the low-frequency cutoff of radio emission due to lightning in the lower atmosphere, called Saturn Electrostatic Discharges (SEDs). It is demonstrated that photochemistry in Saturn’s ionosphere cannot reproduce the SED-inferred diurnal variation in N_MAX unless additional production and loss sources outside of the current best estimates are considered. Additional explanations of the SED-inferred diurnal variation of N_MAX are presented and analyzed, such as the possibility that the low-frequency cutoff seen in SEDs is due to the presence of sharp low-altitude layers of plasma, as frequently seen in radio occultation measurements. Finally, we outline the observational constraints that must be fulfilled by any candidate explanations of the SED-inferred diurnal variation of N_MAX.     

On the Principle of Least Interaction Action and the Laplacean satellites of Jupiter and Uranus

The Principle of Least Interaction Action, which explains the observed preference in the Solar System for two-satellite resonant configurations, is shown to apply also to the Laplacean satellites of Jupiter and Uranus, in the sense that these triplet resonant structures lie close to configurations for which the time-mean of the action associated with the mutual interaction of the satellites is an overall minimum. Far from the minimum configuration, significant changes take place in the major semi-axes on time-scales ～10⁶-10⁷y. Both systems require times ～10⁸ y to come close to the minimum configuration; to approach resonance to the observed precision of the Laplace relationship (3×10^?4 for the Uranian case, 2×10^?7 for the Jovian case) requires, for both systems, a time closely comparable with the age of the solar system.     

Picophytoplankton and bacterioplankton in the Mississippi River plume and its adjacent waters

Picoplankton abundance and distribution in the Mississippi River plume and its adjacent waters were studied during two cruises in April (high discharge) and October (low discharge) 2000 using flow cytometry. Concentrations of photosynthetic picoplankton,Synechococcus and picoeukaryotes were low in the turbid plume water but high in the coastal waters—i.e., the green waters resulting from mixing of river and oceanic waters. In this region, three types ofSynechococcus, characterized by their phycoerythrin chromophore composition, were found:Synechococcus cells with a low phycourobilin to phycoerythrobilin ratio (PUB:PEB) occurred throughout the region and dominated the totalSymechococcus abundance during both seasons; high PUB:PEB cells, which are the dominant strains in the open or blue ocean, occurred only at the outer shelf stations; and PEB-onlySynechococcus were abundant in most of the surveyed area during april, but were not observed during October.Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria only occurred at the oceanic stations, but extended farther inshore in October compared to April. This was a consequence of the reduced discharge and plume size during October. Picophytoplankton were a less important component of total phytoplankton biomass in the turbid river water and more important in the oligotrophic Gulf water. Seasonally, the contribution of picophytoplankton to total phytoplankton biomass in the surveyed area was higher during low discharge in October than during high discharge in April, even though the spring 2000 river discharge was unusually low and might not present a typical high discharge scenario. The abundance of heterotrophic bacteria was weakly correlated to chlorophylla (chla) concentration, but better correlated to picophytoplankton biomass. A higher proportion of High DNA bacteria occurred in the river-impacted regions during both seasons, with the ratio of High DNA bacteria to Low DNA bacteria significantly higher in April.     

Aerial electromagnetic sounding of the lithosphere of Venus

Electromagnetic (EM) investigation depths are larger on Venus than Earth due to the dearth of water in rocks, in spite of higher temperatures. Whistlers detected by Venus Express proved that lightning is present, so the Schumann resonances ～10–40 Hz may provide a global source of electromagnetic energy that penetrates ～10–100 km. Electrical conductivity will be sensitive at these depths to temperature structure and hence thermal lithospheric thickness. Using 1D analytic and 2D numerical models, we demonstrate that the Schumann resonances—transverse EM waves in the ground-ionosphere waveguide—remain sensitive at all altitudes to the properties of the boundaries. This is in marked contrast to other EM methods in which sensitivity to the ground falls off sharply with altitude. We develop a 1D analytical model for aerial EM sounding that treats the electrical properties of the subsurface (thermal gradient, water content, and presence of conductive crust) and ionosphere, and the effects of both random errors and biases that can influence the measurements. We initially consider specified 1D lithospheric thicknesses 100–500 km, but we turn to 2D convection models with Newtonian temperature-dependent viscosity to provide representative vertical and lateral temperature variations. We invert for the conductivity-depth structure and then temperature gradient. For a dry Venus, we find that the error on temperature gradient obtained from any single local measurement is ～100%—perhaps enough to distinguish “thick” vs. “thin” lithospheres. When averaging over thousands of kilometers, however, the standard deviation of the recovered thermal gradient is within the natural variability of the convection models, <25%. A “wet” interior (hundreds of ppm H₂O) limits EM sounding depths using the Schumann resonances to <20 km, and errors are too large to estimate lithospheric properties. A 30-km conductive crust has little influence on the dry-interior models because the Schumann penetration depths are significantly larger. We conclude that EM sounding of the interior of Venus is feasible from a 55-km high balloon. Lithospheric thickness can be measured if the upper-mantle water content is low. If H₂O at hundreds of ppm is present, the deeper, temperature-sensitive structure is screened, but the “wet” nature of the upper mantle, as well as structure of the upper crust, is revealed.     

Non-Linear Gravitational Clustering Using the Zel'dovich Approximation

As an alternative to computationally expensive N-body simulations for gravitional clustering, the Zel'dovich approximation (ZA) was studied in 3D, 2D and 1D. Plots of the density contrast were compared against linear theory and the exact solution. The ZA was found to perform very well in the linear regime, better than linear theory, and to give a good approximation well into the non-linear regime. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Record of Late Pleistocene Glaciation and Deglaciation in the Southern Cascade Range. I. Petrological Evidence from Lacustrine Sediment in Upper Klamath Lake, Southern Oregon

Petrological and textural properties of lacustrine sediments from Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, reflect changing input volumes of glacial flour and thus reveal a detailed glacial history for the southern Cascade Range between about 37 and 15 ka. Magnetic properties vary as a result of mixing different amounts of the highly magnetic, glacially generated detritus with less magnetic, more weathered detritus derived from unglaciated parts of the large catchment. Evidence that the magnetic properties record glacial flour input is based mainly on the strong correlation between bulk sediment particle size and parameters that measure the magnetite content and magnetic mineral freshness. High magnetization corresponds to relatively fine particle size and lower magnetization to coarser particle size. This relation is not found in the Buck Lake core in a nearby, unglaciated catchment. Angular silt-sized volcanic rock fragments containing unaltered magnetite dominate the magnetic fraction in the late Pleistocene sediments but are absent in younger, low magnetization sediments. The finer grained, highly magnetic sediments contain high proportions of planktic diatoms indicative of cold, oligotrophic limnic conditions. Sediment with lower magnetite content contains populations of diatoms indicative of warmer, eutrophic limnic conditions. During the latter part of oxygen isotope stage 3 (about 37–25 ka), the magnetic properties record millennial-scale variations in glacial-flour content. The input of glacial flour was uniformly high during the Last Glacial Maximum, between about 21 and 16 ka. At about 16 ka, magnetite input, both absolute and relative to hematite, decreased abruptly, reflecting a rapid decline in glacially derived detritus. The decrease in magnetite transport into the lake preceded declines in pollen from both grass and sagebrush. A more gradual decrease in heavy mineral content over this interval records sediment starvation with the growth of marshes at the margins of the lake and dilution of detrital material by biogenic silica and other organic matter.