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141.
The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process. 相似文献
142.
Ulrich Lange Michael Bröcker Klaus Mezger Jerzy Don 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2002,91(6):1005-1016
Amphibolite-facies orthogneisses of the Orlica-vnienik dome in the West Sudetes (Poland) show a local continuous transition from weakly deformed augen gneisses to finely laminated mylonites. Field evidence indicates that ductile shearing developed pre- or syntectonically to a migmatization event. Bulk-rock compositions of variably deformed samples yield no indications for deformation- and/or fluid-enhanced element mobility and redistribution. 87Rb-86Sr geochronology (biotite, phengite, whole rock) places time constraints on the deformation process and the post-orogenic cooling history. Phengite- and biotite-whole-rock pairs yield Rb-Sr ages of 340 to 334 Ma and 335 to 294 Ma, respectively, independent of the degree of deformation. The weighted mean of phengite-whole-rock pairs indicates an age of 337.4DŽ.3 Ma. Combining most of the biotite-whole-rock data yields a weighted mean age of 328.6dž.4 Ma. Because of their different closure temperatures for the Rb-Sr system, these differences are interpreted to date cooling after a thermal event. Direct dating of the deformation is not possible, but the cooling history record defines a minimum age for the development of ductile shearing and the last migmatization event. These time constraints provide evidence for the initiation of crustal collapse during or immediately following peak metamorphic conditions. The results of this study further document the importance of Variscan metamorphism in the Orlica-vnienik dome. 相似文献
143.
144.
An automated strategy for calculation of phase diagram sections and retrieval of rock properties as a function of physical conditions 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
We formulate an algorithm for the calculation of stable phase relations of a system with constrained bulk composition as a function of its environmental variables. The basis of this algorithm is the approximate representation of the free energy composition surfaces of solution phases by inscribed polyhedra. This representation leads to discretization of high variance phase fields into a continuous mesh of smaller polygonal fields within which the composition and physical properties of the phases are uniquely determined. The resulting phase diagram sections are useful for understanding the phase relations of complex metamorphic systems and for applications in which it is necessary to establish the variations in rock properties such as density, seismic velocities and volatile‐content through a metamorphic cycle. The algorithm has been implemented within a computer program that is general with respect to both the choice of variables and the number of components and phases possible in a system, and is independent of the structure of the equations of state used to describe the phases of the system. 相似文献
145.
Michael Stipp Holger Stünitz Rene Heilbronner Stefan M. Schmid 《Journal of Structural Geology》2002,24(12)
Near the eastern end of the Tonale fault zone, a segment of the Periadriatic fault system in the Italian Alps, the Adamello intrusion produced a syn-kinematic contact aureole. A temperature gradient from 250 to 700 °C was determined across the Tonale fault zone using critical syn-kinematic mineral assemblages from the metasedimentary host rocks surrounding deformed quartz veins. Deformed quartz veins sampled along this temperature gradient display a transition from cataclasites to mylonites (frictional–viscous transition) at 280±30 °C. Within the mylonites, zones characterized by different dynamic recrystallization mechanisms were defined: Bulging recrystallization (BLG) was dominant between 280 and 400 °C, subgrain rotation recrystallization (SGR) in the 400–500 °C interval, and the transition to dominant grain boundary migration recrystallization (GBM) occurred at 500 °C. The microstructures associated with the three recrystallization mechanisms and the transitions between them can be correlated with experimentally derived dislocation creep regimes. Bulk texture X-ray goniometry and computer-automated analysis of preferred [c]-axis orientations of porphyroclasts and recrystallized grains are used to quantify textural differences that correspond to the observed microstructural changes. Within the BLG- and SGR zones, porphyroclasts show predominantly single [c]-axis maxima. At the transition from the SGR- to the GBM zone, the texture of recrystallized grains indicates a change from [c]-axis girdles, diagnostic of multiple slip systems, to a single maximum in Y. Within the GBM zone, above 630±30 °C, the textures also include submaxima, which are indicative of combined basal a- and prism [c] slip. 相似文献
146.
147.
A new method for upscaling fine scale permeability fields to general quadrilateral-shaped coarse cells is presented. The procedure, referred to as the conforming scale up method, applies a triangle-based finite element technique, capable of accurately resolving both the coarse cell geometry and the subgrid heterogeneity, to the solution of the local fine scale problem. An appropriate averaging of this solution provides the equivalent permeability tensor for the coarse scale quadrilateral cell. The general level of accuracy of the technique is demonstrated through application to a number of flow problems. The real strength of the conforming scale up method is demonstrated when the method is applied in conjunction with a flow-based gridding technique. In this case, the approach is shown to provide results that are significantly more accurate than those obtained using standard techniques. 相似文献
148.
Jinghao ZhangLeonard W Lion Yarrow M Nelson Michael L ShulerWilliam C Ghiorse 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2002,66(5):773-781
The kinetics of Mn(II) oxidation by the bacterium Leptothrix discophora SS1 was investigated in this research. Cells were grown in a minimal mineral salts medium in which chemical speciation was well defined. Mn(II) oxidation was observed in a bioreactor under controlled conditions with pH, O2, and temperature regulation. Mn(II) oxidation experiments were performed at cell concentrations between 24 mg/L and 35 mg/L, over a pH range from 6 to 8.5, between temperatures of 10°C and 40°C, over a dissolved oxygen range of 0 to 8.05 mg/L, and with L. discophora SS1 cells that were grown in the presence of Cu concentrations ranging from zero to 0.1 μM. Mn(II) oxidation rates were determined when the cultures grew to stationary phase and were found to be directly proportional to O2 and cell concentrations over the ranges investigated. The optimum pH for Mn(II) oxidation was approximately 7.5, and the optimum temperature was 30°C. A Cu level as low as 0.02 μM was found to inhibit the growth rate and yield of L. discophora SS1 observed in shake flasks, while Cu levels between 0.02 and 0.1 μM stimulated the Mn(II) oxidation rate observed in bioreactors. An overall rate law for Mn(II) oxidation by L. discophora as a function of pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration (D.O.), and Cu concentration is proposed. At circumneutral pH, the rate of biologically mediated Mn(II) oxidation is likely to exceed homogeneous abiotic Mn(II) oxidation at relatively low (≈μg/L) concentrations of Mn oxidizing bacteria. 相似文献
149.
Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Donald Scavia John C. Field Donald F. Boesch Robert W. Buddemeier Virginia Burkett Daniel R. Cayan Michael Fogarty Mark A. Harwell Robert W. Howarth Curt Mason Denise J. Reed Thomas C. Royer Asbury H. Sallenger James G. Titus 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(2):149-164
Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences. 相似文献
150.
Philip J. Potts Michael Thompson Stephen Wilson 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2002,26(2):197-235
Results are presented for round one of a new international proficiency testing programme designed for microprobe laboratories involved in the routine analysis of silicate minerals. The sample used for this round was TB-1, a basaltic glass fused and prepared by the USGS. Thirty nine laboratories contributed data to this round, the majority of major element results being undertaken by EPMA and the majority of trace elements by LA-ICP-MS. Assigned values were derived from the median of results produced by nine selected laboratories that analysed powdered material by conventional ICP-MS, INAA and XRF techniques using bulk powders of the sample. Submitted microprobe results were evaluated using a target precision calculated using the Horwitz function, adopting the same criteria as those used for "applied" geochemistry laboratories in the companion GeoPT proficiency testing programme for laboratories involved in the routine bulk analysis of silicate rocks. An evaluation of results from participating microprobe laboratories indicated that overall, data were compatible with this precision function. A comparison between the performance of bulk and microprobe techniques used in the analysis of the basaltic glass showed remarkably good agreement, with significant bias only observed for the major oxide MgO. 相似文献